Extratropical Highlights
JULY 2009
Forecast Forum
1. Northern Hemisphere
The 500-hPa height
field during July 2009 featured positive anomalies in the polar region, and
negative anomalies from eastern
North America
to northern
Europe
and over the high latitudes of the central North Pacific (Fig. E9). Over the
North Atlantic
, the circulation reflected a strong negative phase (-2.2) of the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO, Table E1,
Fig. E7). The sea-level pressure field featured generally
below-average pressure across the middle latitudes and above average pressure at
high latitudes. This pattern reflected a record negative phase (-1.4) of the
Arctic Oscillation for July dating back to 1950.
The 200-hPa
streamfunction field indicates El Niņo was impacting the upper-level
circulation during July (Fig. T22).
In particular, the combination of negative anomalies across the NH extratropics
and positive anomalies across the SH extratropics, is consistent historically
with past El Niņo episodes. Earlier in the year La Niņa was associated with an
opposite pattern of streamfunction anomalies in both hemispheres.
The main
temperature signals during July included above average temperatures in the
southeastern
U.S.
, southern
Europe
, and
China
, and below average temperatures in the northern
Plains
States
and central
Canada
(Fig. E1).
The main precipitation signals included above average totals in the central and
northeastern
U.S.
, and northern
Europe
, and below average totals in
Alaska
, western
Canada
, and
Central America
(Fig. E3).
a. North Pacific/
North America
The 500-hPa
circulation during July featured strong troughs over eastern
North America
and the eastern
North Atlantic
, and an anomalous ridge over western
Canada
(Fig. E9).
This circulation contributed to below average temperatures in the northern
Plains
States
and central
Canada
(Fig. E1).
Considerable variability within the base of the mean trough located over the
eastern
U.S.
contributed to above average precipitation across the
Gulf
Coast
and portions of the midwestern
U.S.
(Figs. E3, E5,
E6).
b.
North Atlantic
and
Europe
The 500-hPa
circulation during July featured a dipole pattern of 500-hPa height anomalies
over the
North Atlantic
, with above average heights at high latitudes and below average heights in the
middle latitudes (Fig. E9).
This pattern reflected a strong negative phase of the NAO (Table
E1). The trough over the eastern
North Atlantic
, contributed to above average precipitation across northwestern
Europe
and
Scandinavia
(Fig. E3),
and to above average temperatures across southern
Europe
.
c.
China
The upper-level circulation during July reflected an anomalously strong
monsoon ridge over central
China
(Fig. T22),
which contributed to well above average temperatures across the country.
Departures were generally in the upper 70th percentile of
occurrences, and exceeded the 90th percentile of occurrences in the
north and west (Fig. E1).
2. Southern Hemisphere
The 200-hPa
streamfunction field indicates El Niņo was impacting the upper-level
circulation during July in both the subtropics and extratropics (Fig.
T22). The subtropical ridge was
stronger than average across the central South Pacific and weaker then average
over the
Indian Ocean
. This circulation reflected an overall eastward extension/ shift of the mean
subtropical ridge, and is consistent with the El Niņo-related pattern of
anomalous tropical convection (Fig. T25).
These conditions were also associated with an eastward extension of the South
Pacific jet stream, and with an eastward shift of the jet core to the date line
(Fig. T21).
The 500-height
field shows El Niņo impacts extending well into the high latitudes, as
indicated by negative anomalies immediately poleward of the jet core across the
central South Pacific and by positive anomalies over the high latitudes of the
eastern South Pacific (Fig. E15).
Another El Niņo impact is indicated by cyclonic streamfunction anomalies across
much of the SH extratropics (Fig. T22).
This pattern is opposite to that seen earlier in the year in association with La
Niņa.
The main temperature signals during July
included warmer than normal conditions in southern
Africa
and southeastern
Australia
(Fig. E1).
Precipitation was well above average in southeastern
Brazil
, and well below average in eastern
Australia
(Fig. E3).
|