Tropical Highlights
AUGUST 2009
Forecast Forum
Sea surface temperature (SST)
anomalies remained above average across the equatorial
Pacific Ocean
during August 2009 (Fig. T18).
Consequently,
all
of the Niņo-region SST indices were between +0.8°C and +1.0°C throughout the
month
(Table T2,
Fig. T5).
The oceanic thermocline along
the equator, measured by the depth of the 20°C
isotherm, remained deeper than average across the equatorial
Pacific
Ocean
during August (Figs. T15, T16).
Consistent with these conditions, temperatures were 1o-3oC
above average at thermocline depth across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. T17).
Also
during August, convection was suppressed across
Indonesia
and the western Pacific (Figs.
T25, E3). The coupling of the
oceanic and atmospheric anomalies indicates a weak El Niņo.
The
tropical circulation also featured intra-seasonal activity associated with the
MJO (Fig. T12),
which masked the El Niņo-related pattern of enhanced convection over the
central equatorial Pacific. The MJO also produced a westerly wind burst in the
western tropical Pacific early in the month (Fig.
T13), which triggered an eastward propagating
oceanic Kelvin wave. This wave contributed to a deepening of the oceanic
thermocline during the month, and to in increase in oceanic heat content in the
central equatorial Pacific (Fig. T17).
Previously, the upwelling phase of a Kelvin wave had led to a temporary
weakening of the positive sub-surface temperature anomalies in the eastern
Pacific.
Elsewhere,
convection was enhanced over the eastern tropical Pacific during August, in
association with a very active month of tropical cyclone activities in that
region. Over the tropical
Atlantic
, the ITCZ was shifted
north of normal, in association with an enhanced west African monsoon
circulation (Fig. T24),
weaker than average easterly trade winds in the deep tropics (Fig.
T20), and a northward shift of the 700-hPa
African easterly jet. These conditions contributed to the development of four
Atlantic
named storms (including
Major Hurricane Bill), despite anomalous upper-level westerly winds (Fig. T21) and increased vertical wind
shear over the
Caribbean Sea
in association with El Niņo.
For
the latest status of the ENSO cycle see the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion at:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html
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