Latest Monthly Assessment - Since the last Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) release, drought changes have been a mixed bag across the Contiguous U.S. (Lower-48). Conditions have largely improved in some areas that had been markedly impacted by drought, specifically the Lower-48 west of the Front Range, the central tier of Texas, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, the Upper South, the central Appalachians, and the Northeast. Some locations have experienced 2- or 3-category improvements on the Drought Monitor, with some of the larger areas with such improvements including southern California, areas near the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers' confluence, central West Virginia, much of Vermont, and to the lee of Lake Erie. In contrast, drought has developed or intensified in parts of the northern and central High Plains, portions of the north-central Great Plains, along and near the Red River (south) Valley, across southern and southeastern Texas, and lower portions of the South Atlantic States. A fairly substantial part of these areas saw 2-category deterioration, with small sections of Deep South Texas and southern Oklahoma intensifying by 3 categories in the last 5 weeks. Deterioration was also noted in sections of the central Gulf Coast and mid-Atlantic regions, but it has not been as widespread nor as rapid. Outside the Lower-48, drought was largely unchanged across Hawaii, with patches of improvement noted along the northeastern tier of the island chain, and intensification in central Maui. Alaska and Puerto Rico remain free of drought, although swaths of abnormal dryness have waxed and waned in the latter region.



Over the next month, drought improvement or removal is anticipated in the Pacific Northwest and adjacent central Rockies, in concert with the official December forecast. Improvement or removal is also anticipated near the western and central Gulf Coast and across most of Alabama and Georgia, driven largely by expected heavy rains during the forthcoming week. A large swath across this region is expecting 2 to locally over 5 inches or rain during early December. Meanwhile, increased precipitation should drive less dramatic improvement is expected over most of the Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic regions, and the Northeast. Improvement or removal is also expected across the areas of drought in Hawaii, where the official December forecast favors above-normal precipitation.



In contrast, drought is expected to persist or possibly worsen in most of the central and southern Rockies, most drought areas in the Plains, the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley, Florida, and adjacent Georgia. With little precipitation forecast in the deterministic models and some moisture deficits already in place, drought is expected to expand into areas from central and north-central Texas through the southern High Plains.



Forecaster: Richard Tinker



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: December 31, 2025 at 3:00 PM EST

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion