Latest Monthly Assessment - During June, above-normal precipitation was observed across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valleys and brought widespread drought amelioration (1-3 class improvement) over the region. The above-normal southwestern monsoon rainfall and periodic heavy precipitation over parts of the eastern Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) also improved drought conditions (1-3 class improvement) across parts of the Southwest and eastern coastal regions. However, drought and abnormal dryness continued to expand and degrade across most of the northwestern quarter of the CONUS.



Looking ahead into July, the CPC monthly outlooks favor below-normal precipitation across much of the Pacific Northwest, eastward into parts of the Northern and Central Plains, and equal chances (EC, above-near-below normal) for the precipitation across much of remainder of the western and central CONUS, coupled with a general dry climatology and near to above normal temperatures across much of the CONUS. Therefore, persistence is forecast for the existing drought across much of the West, with potential drought expansion likely over parts of these abnormal dry (D0) areas. One exception for the West is the core Monsoon region in the Southwest. Some improvement is favored due to predicted robust Monsoon rainfall across the region coupled with a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge. Drought improvement is also expected for parts of the Midwest and Northeast due to forecast heavy precipitation across the region in the next two weeks, a slightly above-normal or EC precipitation for July. Drought removal/improvement across the Florida Peninsula is favored with forecast EC precipitation for July coupled with a wet climatology and a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge.



Drought removal is favored for the small drought in central mainland Alaska due to CPC extended range forecasts and monthly outlooks predict slightly above-normal or EC precipitation coupled with a wet climatology across much of the state. Drought persistence is expected across much of the Hawaiian Islands with expansion likely in some abnormal dry (D0) areas in the Leeward side due to the CPC seasonal outlook favoring below normal precipitation and the Islands also in the climatological dry season. No drought conditions are currently present or favored to develop across Alaska, Puerto Rico, or the US Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: July 31, 2025 at 3:00 PM EDT

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion