Latest Monthly Assessment -
Drought is expected to persist and/or intensify from the eastern slopes of the Cascades Range to the central Dakotas, despite some of this region receiving beneficial precipitation during the past 30-days. The exception is northeastern Montana and extreme northwestern North Dakota, where 2-3 inches of precipitation is forecast to fall just within the first week of October. West of the Cascades, an increasingly wet autumn climatology promotes drought removal. For the southwest quadrant of the contiguous U.S. and the central Great Plains, drought is predicted to persist and/or intensify. Rainfall anticipated within the first two weeks of October is expected to be enough to warrant the removal of drought in Oklahoma and most of Texas; with October also being a secondary wet month climatologically for the southern Plains. Heavy precipitation forecast during the first two weeks of October may also bring about the removal (and/or improvement) of drought in southeastern South Dakota, Minnesota and northeastern Iowa. For most of the Midwest region, Arkansas, Lower Michigan, and from Ohio and Virginia northeastward to Maine, predicted below to near normal precipitation amounts during the month of October are not likely to be enough to warrant any improvement or removal of existing drought. This anticipated lack of sufficient rainfall, in addition to mounting precipitation deficits, promotes the development of drought across significant portions of these regions. For Hawaii, drought is expected to persist and/or intensify, as the traditional rainy season is still several months away.
Forecaster: Anthony Artusa
Next Monthly Outlook issued: October 31, 2017 at 3pm EDT
Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion