Latest Monthly Assessment -
During March, El Niño is favored to remain a strong influencer of climate anomalies across the US; however, the atmospheric response has begun to weaken, and a gradual transition towards ENSO neutral conditions is favored during the Spring. During February, a series of atmospheric river events brought copious moisture to portions of California and the Great Basin, easing drought conditions, though snowpack conditions remain well below average across the far southern Sierra Nevadas, the Cascades, and the Olympic ranges in Washington. A lack of snow cover coupled with much above-normal temperatures promoted an early thaw of soils across much of the northern tier, which caused an unusually rapid expansion of drought conditions given the time of year. Drought conditions continued to ease along the lower Mississippi Valley, but expanded across portions of western Texas due to warm and windy conditions, and a growing precipitation deficit led to moderate drought developing across eastern North Carolina.
During March, persistent warmth along the northern tier will continue to thaw soils and promote winter crops to break dormancy early. With increasing evapotranspirative demand coupled with little to no snow cover, continued drought development is favored along the northern tier. Additional development is also favored for western Texas, with no major changes to the pattern expected during March. While a series of storms will bring copious precipitation to the West Coast, including the Cascades and Sierras, it is unclear whether this late season moisture will substantively overcome the large deficits that have grown throughout the water season to date. In contrast, drought improvements are favored for portions of the Great Plains, lower to mid-Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast, with the updated monthly precipitation outlook favoring above-normal precipitation across these regions, coupled with a gradually wetter climatology across the Midwest.
Forecaster: Adam Allgood
Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: March 31, 2024 at 3:00 PM EDT
Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion
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