Latest Seasonal Assessment -
During the past several weeks, reservoir recharge and a continuation of good snowpack conditions in the Sierra Nevadas resulted in widespread drought reduction across northern California and Nevada, while extreme to exceptional drought conditions persisted across much of southern California. Across the Northwest, above-normal temperatures promoted rapid snowmelt, while abnormally dry conditions during April limited any late season recharge. Generous rainfall led to continued drought reductions across the Plains, while unseasonably dry weather led to short term drought development across parts of the Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians. Abnormal dryness also expanded across parts of Pennsylvania, New York, and southern New England.
The CPC seasonal outlook for the Summer months favors a tilt towards above-normal temperatures across most of the CONUS and Alaska, with enhanced chances for precipitation exceeding climatology across the central Rockies and Plains, as well as New England. There are no regions where below-median precipitation is favored. Nevertheless, drought development is forecast for much of Washington and Oregon due to the lack of mountain snowpack and the warm seasonal outlook. Drought development is also possible across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest, where Spring precipitation was below normal. Short term drought conditions are also favored to expand from southwestern Pennsylvania through southern New England, where many locations have 90-day precipitation deficits exceeding 4 inches. In contrast, short and medium range forecasts for widespread precipitation favors drought removal across the Southeast and the north-central Rockies. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the impact of Summer monsoon convection on long term drought conditions over the Southwest; however, enhanced rainfall early in the period makes drought removal more likely across New Mexico. Persistence is favored for Hawaii as the dry season begins, while the small remaining areas of drought are forecast to end across Puerto Rico.
Forecaster: Adam Allgood
Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: June 16, 2016 at 8:30 AM EDT
Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion