Latest Seasonal Assessment -
During the past month, insufficient rainfall coupled with above-normal temperatures contributed to an increase in short-term drought across parts of the central and eastern U.S. with drought intensifying across the Northeast. Improving drought conditions were limited to parts of the Southeast and middle Mississippi Valley.
The drought outlook valid from August 18, 2016 through November 30, 2016 is based on the CPC September-November precipitation and temperature outlooks, precipitation forecasts during the remainder of August, recent precipitation anomalies, and climatology.
Although development and intensification of drought becomes less likely as temperatures cool this fall, persistence is favored across the long-term drought areas of the Northeast. Prospects for drought removal improve to the west across northern Ohio, northeast Indiana, and lower Michigan where drought is more short-term in duration. Drought persistence is forecast across the interior Southeast, and parts of Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and the upstate of South Carolina are the most likely areas for development through the end of November. Improvement or removal of drought is favored across the Great Plains along with southeast Arizona and New Mexico. Persistence is forecast across the protracted drought areas of the West, while removal is favored along coastal Oregon where it becomes wetter earlier during the fall season.
The small remaining drought area across Puerto Rico is likely to be removed by the end of November. Drought removal is also forecast across Hawaii.
Forecaster: Brad Pugh
Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: September 15, 2016 at 8:30 AM EDT
Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion