The updated Seasonal Drought Outlook underwent only minor revisions, incorporating a slight expansion of anticipated drought improvement or development across portions of the Northern Rockies, Southern Plains, Southeast, and Midwest.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - The updated Seasonal Drought Outlook underwent only minor revisions, incorporating a slight expansion of anticipated drought improvement or development across portions of the Northern Rockies, Southern Plains, Southeast, and Midwest.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Drought expanded and intensified throughout the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, Northeast, and Southeast during the late summer and early fall. La Niña and the November-December-January (NDJ) precipitation outlook favor additional drought development across the Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern Great Plains. Consistent with the NDJ precipitation outlook, improvement and removal are forecast for parts of the Midwest. Recent heavy precipitation and predicted precipitation during mid to late October also favor improving drought conditions for the portions of the Middle Mississippi, Lower Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. Forecast confidence is low across the Northeast due to weak precipitation signals but the outlook leans towards broad-scale persistence as the Northeast drought has become more long-term.



Drought improvement and removal are most likely to occur later this fall into the winter across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain West due to an increasingly wet climatology and the typical La Niña wet influence. Recent heavy precipitation and an increased chance of above-normal precipitation during the final week of October support improvement/removal for central California and coastal southern California. Persistence is more likely for the Southwest.



Based on an increasingly wet climatology, gradual improvement is forecast for Hawaii. Alaska, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands are expected to remain drought-free through the end of January 2026.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: November 20, 2025 at 8:30 AM EST

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion