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HOME > Outreach > Meetings > 32nd Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop Agenda
 
 
Program for the 32nd Annual Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop
Ramada Conference Center
Tallahassee, FL, October 22-26, 2007
 
Monday, October 22, 2007
8:00 am - 8:30 am Registration  
8:30 am - 8:40 am Welcoming Remarks Ross Ellington, FSU
8:40 am - 8:50 am Opening Remarks Jim O'Brien; COAPS/FSU
8:50 am - 9:10 am CFS as the National Model Louis Uccellini; NOAA/NCEP
9:10 am - 9:30 am CPC Embracing the Future Wayne Higgins; CPC/NCEP
Session 1: Review of Operational Forecasts
Chairperson: Mike Halpert; CPC
9:30 am 9:50 am A Review of 2005-2007 ENSO Predictions Tony Barnston; IRI
9:50 am -10:20 am Coffee
10:20 am 10:40 am A Review of 2005-2007 U.S. Drought Monitor and Outlook Doug LeComte; NCEP/CPC
10:40 am 11:00 am 10 Years of Hazards Assessments Ed O'Lenic; NCEP/CPC
11:00 am 11:20 am Skill Assessment of CPC Seasonal Forecasts from 1995-2006 A. Kumar; NCEP/CPC
11:20 am 11:40 am A Review of UKMET Forecasts for Europe Andrew Colman; UKMO
11:40 am 12:00 pm A Review of CFS Forecasts for 2005-2007 Wanqui Wang; NCEP/CPC
12:00 pm - 1:00 pm Lunch
Session 2: (CTB Session): CFS and the Next Generation Reanalysis
Chairperson: Robert Webb; ESRL
1:00 pm - 1:40 pm Status and Plan of the NCEP CFSRR Project Hua-Lu Pan; NCEP/EMC
1:40 pm - 2:00 pm The 20th Century Reanalysis Project Jeffrey Whitaker; ESRL/NOAA
2:00 pm - 2:20 pm Subseasonal predictions with the NCEP CFS: Forecast Skill and Prediction Barriers Augustin Vinzileos; NCEP/EMC
2:20 pm - 2:40 pm Empirical Correction of the Global Forecast System Timothy DelSole; GMU/COLA
2:40 pm - 3:10 pm Coffee
3:10 pm - 3:30 pm Comparison of Daily Precip. Statistics for the U.S. in Observations and in NCEP CFS Wayne Higgins; NCEP/CPC
3:30 pm - 3:50 pm Development of Fast and Accurate Neural Network Emulations of LW Radiation for the NCEP CFS Model Krasnopolsky; ESSIC/Univ. MD
3:50 pm - 4:10 pm Report on the FY07 CFS Test and Evaluation Team Activities Jae-Kyung Schemm; NCEP/CPC
4:10 pm - 4:30 pm The Equatorial Cold Tongue Bias in a Coupled Climate Model V. Misra; COLA
4:30 pm - 4:50 pm Applying NCEP's GODAS and CFS to Monitor, Diagnose and Forecast Coastal Upwelling for the California Current Ecosystem Yan Xue; NCEP/CPC
4:50 pm - 5:10 pm Evaluation of the FSU/COAPS Climate Model M. Engelman, COAPS/FSU
5:10 pm - 5:30 pm Demonstration of New Capabilities in GrADS Jennifer Adams; COLA
6:00 pm - 7:30 pm Icebreaker; Cash Bar
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Session 3: Climate Extremes
Chairperson: Jeffrey Whitaker; ESRL
8:30 am - 8:50 am Attribution of Extreme Variability of Temperature and Rainfall in the Florida Dry Season Bart Hagemeyer; NWS/NOAA
8:50 am - 9:10 am High Resolution Ensemble Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Simulations Tim LaRow; COAPS/FSU
9:10 am - 9:30 am North Atlantic Ocean Multi-Decadal Variability Philip Klotzbach; CSU
9:30 am - 9:50 am Probabilistic Forecasts of Extreme Precipitation Events for the U.S. Hazards Assessment Ken Pelman; NCEP/CPC
9:50 am - 10:10 am Impact of the Atlantic Warm Pool on Western Hemisphere Climate and Hurricanes Chunzai Wang; AOML/NOAA
10:10 am - 10:40 am Coffee
10:40 am - 11:00 am Near-Surface Climate Extremes in the Past 50+ Years Yun Fan; NCEP/CPC
11:00 am - 11:20 am An Assessment of the Low Frequency Changes in the Tropical Cyclone Formation in the North Atlantic Basin Phillip Pegion; GSFC/NASA
11:20 am - 11:40 am Potential Climate Factors Associated with Variations in the Level of Lake Superior John Janowiak; NCEP/CPC
11:40 am - 12:00 pm An Analysis of the Extreme Temperatures in Europe in 2006-2007 Geert Jan van Oldenborgh; KNMI
12:00 pm - 1:00 pm Lunch
Session 4: Application of CPC Climate Outlooks in the Southeast U.S.
Chairperson: Muthuvel Chelliah; CPC
1:00 pm - 1:20 pm Working and Partnering with Climate Stakeholders Jim O'Brien; Prof. Emeritus, FSU
1:20 pm - 1:40 pm AgClimate Outlooks: Delivering Climate-Based Information to Stakeholders in Agriculture Joel Paz; Univ. Georgia
1:40 pm - 2:00 pm Forecasting Cotton yields Over the Southeastern U.S. Using NCEP/R and NCEP/CFS Guillermo Baigorria, UF/SECC
2:00 pm - 4:00 pm Coffee and Poster Session 1 (Chairperson: D.W. Shin; COAPS/FSU)
4:00 pm - 4:20 pm From Participatory Reasearch to Social Learning: Assessment of Climate Forecast Tools for Livestock Producers Norman Breuer; Univ. Miami
4:20 pm - 4:40 pm Validation of Climate-Based Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlooks Paul Trimble; SFWMD
4:40 pm - 5:00 pm Climate Information and Agricultural Risk Management: Understanding Farmer's Decision Making Todd Crane; Univ. Georgia
5:00 pm - 5:20 pm Sensitivity of MJO Predictability to SST Kathy Pegion; COLA
Wednesday, October 24, 2006
Session 5: Prospects for Improving Precipitation/Drought Forecasts for Different Time-Scales
Chairperson: Huug van den Dool; CPC
8:30 am - 9:10 am Prospects for Improved Hydrological and Agricultural Drought Prediction: The Role of Precipitation Forecasts? Dennis Lettenmaier; Univ. Wash.
9:10 am - 9:30 am NCEP 2-Week Forecast Skill for Early-Winter Warm, Wet Storms in the Pacific Northwest Todd Mitchell; Univ. Wash
9:30 am - 9:50 am Multi-Model Ensemble Reconstruction of drought Over the Continental U.S. Aihui Wang; Univ. Wash.
9:50 am - 10:10 am Predictability of Spring Temperatures Due to Snow Cover Effect Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, KNMI
10:10 am - 10:40 am Coffee
10:40 am - 11:00 am 2007 Drought and Wet Spells Over the United States and Mexico Kingtse Mo, NCEP/CPC
11:00 am - 11:20 am Use of Linear Discriminant Methods for Calibration of Seasonal Probability Forecasts Andrew Colman; UKMO
11:20 am - 11:40 am Verification of NAEFS Land Surface Forecasts in Warm Season JAS 2006 Wanru Wu, NCEP/CPC
11:40 am - 12:00 am Summer Season Predictions with NCEP/CFS Using Diff. Land Models and Land IC's Rongqian Yang, NCEP/EMC
12:00 pm - 1:00 pm Lunch
Session 6: Current State of ENSO Predictions, Predictability and Imapcts
Chairperson: Allan Clarke; FSU
1:00 pm - 1:40 pm On the Origin of the Observed ENSO Variability Javier Zavala-Garay; Rutgers Univ.
1:40 pm - 2:00 pm A Southern Hemisphere Footprint in the American Midwest Cecile Penland; ESRL/NOAA
2:00 pm - 2:20 pm A Comparative Study of the Atypical 1998-2000 La Niña with Previous La Niña Events Amir Shabbar; ARD/Env. Canada
2:20 pm - 2:40 pm Equatorial Pacific Heat Content and ENSO Prediction Allan Clarke; FSU
2:40 pm - 3:10 pm Coffee
3:10 pm - 3:30 pm How is ENSO-Monsoon Relationship in Coupled Prediction Affected by Model's Systematic Errors June-Yi Lee; IPRC/Univ. HI
3:30 pm - 3:50 pm Multi-Model ENSO Prediction Using CFS and CCSM3 Ben Kirtman; Univ. Miami/COLA
3:50 pm - 4:10 pm The Effects of 2006-07 El Niño on Australia's Climate and Bushfire Season Bradley Murphy; BM/Australia
4:10 pm - 4:30 pm Predictability of ENSO-Monsoon relationship in NCEP/CFS Emilia Jin; GMU/COLA
4:30 pm - 4:50 pm An Attribution Analysis of Variations in Skill of CPC's Seasonal Surface Temperature Forecasts Peitao Peng, NCEP/CPC
TBD Banquet; Speaker: Charles Bronson, Commissioner, Florida Agriculture and Consumer Services
Thursday, October 25, 2006
Session 7: Stratospehric/Tropospheric Connections and Intra-Seasonal Predictions
Chairperson: Ming Cai; FSU
8:30 am - 9:10 am Intraseasonal Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling and Tropospheric Predictions Robert Black; GA Tech. and Walt Robinson (NSF)
9:10 am - 9:30 am Predictability and Prediction of Tropical Intra-Seasonal Oscillation Xiohua Fu; IPRC/Univ. HI
9:30 am - 9:50 am Assessing the skill of an All-Season Statistical Forecast Model of Madden-Julian Oscillation Xianan Jiang; JPL/Cal. Tech.
9:50 am - 10:10 am A Stochastic Model of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Charles Jones; ICESS/Univ. Cal.
10:10 am - 10:40 am Coffee
10:40 am - 11:00 am Development of Precipitation Outlooks for the Global Tropics Keyed to the MJO Cycle Jon Gottschalck; NCEP/CPC
11:00 am - 11:20 am Verification of the NCEP Operational GFS Predictions in the Stratosphere During DJF 2005-06 and 2006-07 Ming Cai; FSU
11:20 am - 11:40 am Signal to Noise Ratios for Subseasonal Atmospheric Variability Edward Berry; PSD/ESRL/NOAA
11:40 am - 12:00 pm Evaluation of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation in a Coupled Climate Model Suhee Park; NMIR/KMA
12:00 pm - 1:00 pm Lunch
Session 8: Physical Basis for Developing a Forecast Capability for Weeks 3 & 4
Chairperson: Walt Robinson, NSF
1:00 pm - 1:40 pm Physical Basis for Developing a Forecast Capability for Weeks 3 & 4 Matt Newmann; ESRL/NOAA
1:40 pm - 2:00 pm Assessing the Skill of ECMWF Forecasts in Weeks 3-4 Jeff Whitaker; ESRL/NOAA
2:00 pm - 2:20 pm Verification of Daily CFS Forecasts from Day 1 to Day 270 Huug van den Dool; NCEP/CPC
2:20 pm - 4:00 pm Coffee and Poster Session 2 (Chairperson: Song Yang; CPC/NOAA)
4:00 pm - 4:20 pm Coupled Predictability of the Seasonal Tropical Precipitation Bin Wang; Univ. HI
4:20 pm - 4:40 pm Trend and Variability of East-Asian Precipitation in Spring and Summer: Linkage to Sea Surface Temperatures Fanglin Yang, NCEP/EMC
4:40 pm - 5:00 pm Attribution of Observed Climate Trends Over the U.S. during 1950-2000 Hailan Wang; GEST/UMBC
5:00 pm - 5:20 pm New Coupled forecast System at the Japan Meteorological Agency Yuhei Takaya; JMA/Japan
Friday, October 26, 2006
Session 9: Scientific/Practical Results From North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) and Precipitation Analyses
Chairperson: Song Yang, CPC
8:30 am - 9:00 am Statistical Downscaling of Warm Season Medium-Range Precipitation Prediction in the Core North America Region with Application to Water Resources Forecasting David Gochis; NCAR
8:50 am - 9:10 am MM5/VIC Modeling of the Influence of Antecedent Soil Moisture on the Variability of the North American Monsoon Chumei Zhu; Univ. Wash.
9:10 am - 9:30 am Assessment of the NCEP/CFS on the Predictability of the North American Monsoon Lindsey Long; NCEP/CPC
9:30 am - 9:50 am Contributions of Water Vapor and Temperature to the Interannual Variability of Precipitation: An Evaluation from North American Regional Reanalysis Er Lu; Iowa St. Univ.
9:50 am - 10:20 am Coffee
10:20 am - 10:40 am A Global Daily Gauge-Based Precipitation Analysis, Part 1: Assessing Objective Techniques Mingyue Chen, NCEP/CPC
10:40 am - 11:00 am Examining Fresh Water Flux over Global Oceans in the NCEP, CDAS, CDAS2, GDAS, GFS and CFS P. Xie, NCEP/CPC
11:00 am - 11:20 am Variability of U.S. Regional Precipitation, Associated Physical Processes and Simulations by the NCEP Climate Forecast System Song Yang, NCEP/CPC
11:20 am - 11:40 am Regional Climate Simulation of Surface Temperature and Precipitation by Downscaling Approach Over the Southeast United States Young-Kwon Lim, FSU

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