Predicting Present and Future Drought
Abstract

Abstract Author: E-Hyung Park,Eun-Jeong Lee,Won-Tae Kwon,Song-You Hong

Abstract Title: Assessment of the greenhouse gas contribution to global warming based on multi-model ensemble

Abstract: This study estimates the greenhouse gas effect on the future climate projections produced by the multi-model ensembles (MMEs). Climate change signal and greenhouse gas contribution in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), i.e., A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios, are evaluated by focusing on East Asia for annual and seasonal mean surface temperature and precipitation. The results from eight coupled Atmosphere-Ocean coupled general circulation models (AOGCMs) are analyzed using the MMEs method, which is defined as average of eight AOGCMs simulation. Analyses of climate change from MMEs, compared to the present climate, show that East Asia is likely to experience warmer and wetter climate in the 21st century with larger amplitude than the global mean. To investigate the greenhouse gas contribution, we use an Inter-model reproducibility which reveals that the future climate change in the 21st century due to the greenhouse gas effect (signal) are statistically significant over some regions, such as East Asia, Europe, North Pole and etc. However, the inter-model variability (noise) in precipitation and surface temperature changes is as large as that of ensemble mean, especially over equatorial Pacific.