Climate Prediction: ENSO, MJO and Teleconnections
Abstract

Abstract Author: Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Lindsey Long, Suranjana Saha and Shrinivas Moorthi

Abstract Title: Application of T382 CFS Forecasts for Dynamic Hurricane Season Prediction

Abstract: As part of CTB transition project team activities, a series of CFS hindcast runs were made to evaluate feasibility of dynamic hurricane season prediction based on forecast runs made with the T382 spatial resolution. The hindcast experiments are run for 1981-2007 period in three sets of initial conditions on April 19, 20 and 21. Statistics and trajectories of tropical storms in the Northern Hemisphere basins are examined and compared to observations. The main focus will be on the seasonal cycle and interannual variability over the Atlantic basin.

Comparisons will also be made to runs at T382 initialized in May and July to examine the impact of initial conditions on the hurricane prediction. July cases are run for 2008 only and were used to assist in the CPC operational hurricane season outlook update.