CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate Anomalies for

Feb 2008 to Oct 2008

(Updated: Wed Apr 8 22:08:40 EDT 2009)



This page provides seasonal climate anomalies from the NCEP coupled forecast system model (CFS03). Four forecast runs are produced each day for 9 target months. Initial conditions are from the NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2 (R2) for the atmosphere and from NCEP global ocean data assimilation system (GODAS) for the ocean. The forecast displayed here is ensemble mean of 40 forecast members from initial conditions of the last 10 days. All anomalies are with respect to 1981-2006 hindcast climatology, except for Nino SSTs for which a bias correction with 1981-2006 average is first applied and then observed climatlogy of 1971-2000 is used to define anomalies.  

CAUTION: Seasonal climate anomalies shown here are not the official NCEP seasonal forecast outlooks. The NCEP seasonal forecast outlooks can be found at CPC website. Model based seasonal climate anomalies are one factor based on which NCEP seasonal forecast outlook is issued.  


Nino SSTs
 Monthly Nino1+2
 Monthly Nino3
 Monthly Nino3.4
 Monthly Nino4
 Seasonal Nino1+2
 Seasonal Nino3
 Seasonal Nino3.4
 Seasonal Nino4

Nino SSTs with statistical correction
PDF correction
Ensemble Regression
Monthly Nino3.4
Monthly Nino3.4
Seasonal Nino3.4
Seasonal Nino3.4

Sea surface height and equatorial temperature
 Sea surface height (x-y)
 Equatorial temperature (x-z)

Three-month-mean spatial anomalies
(1-6 month leads)
Variable
Anomaly
Anomaly with skill mask
Normalized
Normalized with skill mask
Probability
SST
Prec
T2m
z200
 
z700
 
US Prec
L0 L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6
US T2m
L0 L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6
US SM
 
Europe Prec
Europe T2m
Europe SM
 
Global u200-u850   Atlantic u200-u850   Atlantic u200   Atlantic u600   Atlantic u850 Atlantic SST

Monthly-mean spatial anomalies
(0-5 month leads)
Variable
Anomaly
Anomaly with skill mask
Normalized
Normalized with skill mask
Probability
SST
Prec
T2m
z200
 
z700
 
US Prec
L0 L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6 L7 L8
US T2m
L0 L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6 L7 L8
US SM
 
US SM change
     
Europe Prec
Europe T2m
Europe SM
 
Global u200-u850   Atlantic u200-u850   Atlantic u200   Atlantic u600   Atlantic u850 Atlantic SST

Diagnoses
Hindcast skill
Forecast consistency
Forecast verification
Forecast assessment

CFS Forecast display archive


CFS model documentation and data access
http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov


Send your comments to: Wanqiu Wang