This page provides seasonal climate anomalies from the NCEP coupled forecast system model (CFS03). Four forecast runs are produced each day for 9 target months. Initial conditions are from the NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2 (R2) for the atmosphere and from NCEP global ocean data assimilation system (GODAS) for the ocean. The forecast displayed here is ensemble mean of 40 forecast members from initial conditions of the last 10 days. All anomalies are with respect to 1981-2006 hindcast climatology, except for Nino SSTs for which a bias correction with 1981-2006 average is first applied and then observed climatlogy of 1971-2000 is used to define anomalies.
CAUTION: Seasonal climate anomalies shown here are not the official NCEP seasonal forecast outlooks. The NCEP seasonal forecast outlooks can be found at CPC website. Model based seasonal climate anomalies are one factor based on which NCEP seasonal forecast outlook is issued.
NOTE: This page is updated daily to display the latest ensemble mean forecast. Forecasts from previous months can be viewed at CFS forecast display archive.
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