We apologize for a further delay in the CFSv2 implementation which was proposed to be released on February 22, 2011, to allow for more evaluation. NCEP is now targeting the last week in March 2011 for the implementation. As stated before, there will be a continuance of the current CFS (version 1) till June 28, 2011 to allow users to transition their processing to the new CFS (version 2). For detailed information, please visit: http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsv2.info
This page displays seasonal climate anomalies from the NCEP coupled forecast system model (CFS). Forecasts are from initial conditions of the last 30 days, with 4 runs from each day. Forecast ensembles consist of 40 members from initial a period of 10 days. The 1st ensebmle (E1) is from the earliest 10 days, the 2nd ensemble (E2) from the second earliest 10 days, and 3rd ensemble (E3) from the latest 10 days. Aomalies are with respect to 1981-2008 hindcast climatology. Temporal correlations based on 1981-2006 hindcasts and observations are used as skill mask for spatial anomalies. Standard deviation to normalize anomalies is the average standard deviation of individual members computed from 1981-2006 hindcasts for the corresponding initial month and target seasons.
CAUTION: Seasonal climate anomalies shown here are not the official NCEP seasonal forecast outlooks. The NCEP seasonal forecast outlooks can be found at CPC website. Model based seasonal climate anomalies are one factor based on which NCEP seasonal forecast outlook is issued.
E3(PDF-corrected) |
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Global u200-u850( E1 E2 E3) Atlantic u200-u850( E1 E2 E3) Atlantic u200( E1 E2 E3) Atlantic u600( E1 E2 E3) Atlantic u850( E1 E2 E3) Atlantic SST( E1 E2 E3) |
E3(PDF-corrected) |
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Global u200-u850( E1 E2 E3) Atlantic u200-u850( E1 E2 E3) Atlantic u200( E1 E2 E3) Atlantic u600( E1 E2 E3) Atlantic u850( E1 E2 E3) Atlantic SST( E1 E2 E3) |