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HOME > Climate & Weather Linkage > Global Tropics Outlook


Weeks 2-3 Global Tropics Hazards Outlook (GTH)

For week-1 tropical cylone information and forecasts, please visit the National Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. For week-1 precipitation and temperature related products, please visit the Weather Prediction Center or refer to your local NWS office.

GTH Outlook Map and Data
Last Updated - 10/29/24
GIS Ready Formats
Hazard
Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability KMZ KML SHP KMZ KML SHP
Enhanced Precipitation Probability KMZ KML SHP KMZ KML SHP
Suppressed Precipitation Probability KMZ KML SHP KMZ KML SHP
Above Average Temperatures Probability KMZ KML SHP KMZ KML SHP
Below Average Temperatures Probability KMZ KML SHP KMZ KML SHP

Tropical Cyclone Only GTH Map
Tropical Cyclone Only GTH (ATL Basin)
Tropical Cyclone Only GTH (EPAC Basin)
Precipitation Only GTH Map
Temperature Only GTH Map
Lines Only GTH Map

Latest Product (PDF Format)
Latest Briefing (PDF Format)
GTH Archive
 
GTH Outlook Discussion
Last Updated - 10/29/24
Valid - 11/06/24 - 11/19/24
A robust MJO continues to propagate eastward through the global tropics, with the enhanced convective envelope currently over the western and central Pacific Ocean. Dynamical models are in good agreement on the MJO continuing to propagate eastward into the western Hemisphere during early November. This predicted MJO evolution would enhance the potential for tropical cyclone (TC) development over the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean Sea during the week 1-2 period. The continued shift towards La Nina conditions has been notably slow in recent months, though enhanced trade winds over the equatorial Pacific may increase upwelling via Ekman transport and push down upper-ocean heat content east of the Date Line.

Two TCs formed over the last week, both in the Eastern Hemisphere. On October 22 TC Dana formed in the Bay of Bengal. It quickly intensified to a category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson (SS) scale and made landfall on October 24 over the northeastern coast of India, causing widespread impacts to the Indian states of Odisha and West Bengal, as well as in Bangladesh. On October 24 TC Kong-rey formed west of Guam and began tracking westward, gradually increasing in strength. Kong-rey is currently a SS category 4 storm several hundred miles east of Luzon, Philippines and is moving northwest in the general direction of Taiwan, which may be affected by this storm in the next 48-60 hours. For the latest information on Kong-rey please refer to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and your local meteorological agencies.

In the Atlantic Basin, the Caribbean Sea is climatologically the most favored region for any development as we get into November, and while climatological chances of TC development decline quickly as the weeks progress, the season is not over yet and there remains some potential for TC activity looking ahead. Model ensembles depict the MJO moving into and across the western Hemisphere in the coming weeks, bringing with it enhanced upper-level divergence and an increased potential for TC genesis. Many members from both the GEFS and ECMWF spin up surface lows over the Caribbean sea late in week-1 and into week-2, with a preference for the former. However, MJO forcing which lingers into week-3 will continue to foster a favorable environment for TCs; therefore a slight chance (20-40%) of TC genesis is posted for the Caribbean Sea and adjacent waters for both weeks 2 and 3. Stronger MJO forcing during week-2 also slightly favors TC genesis for portions of the East Pacific. Meanwhile, strong anomalous upper-level convergence over the Maritime Continent and Western Pacific would tend to suppress TC genesis and no areas are highlighted in the basin. However, the MJO is favored to continue its circumnavigation of the globe, moving over Africa and the Indian Ocean later in the forecast period and bringing increasing chances for TC formation in the southwest Indian Ocean. A slight risk of TC genesis is posted for week-2 and a moderate risk (40-60%) for week-3.

The precipitation outlook for weeks 2 and 3 is based on potential TC activity, the anticipated state of ENSO and the MJO, and informed by GEFS, CFS, Canadian, and ECMWF ensemble mean solutions. Above-normal temperatures are indicated for portions of the eastern U.S. during week-2. For hazardous weather conditions in your area during the coming two-week period, please refer to your local NWS office, the Medium Range Hazards Forecast produced by the Weather Prediction Center, and the CPC Week-2 Hazards Outlook. Forecasts made over Africa are made in coordination with the International Desk at CPC.



Product Release Information
The Global Tropics Hazards Outlook (GTH) is released once per week every Tuesday at 1730 UTC (1830 UTC when on standard time) including U.S. federal holidays. At the time of product release, there is a live briefing (available via Google Meet) open to all stakeholders where the latest conditions and the newly released outlook are shared with the opportunity to ask questions. Folks that are interested in learning more or attending these briefings should contact Jon.Gottschalck@noaa.gov, Scott.Handel@noaa.gov, Adam.Allgood@noaa.gov and Nicholas.Novella@noaa.gov for the required information. Each weekly outlook and GTH release briefing is Archived and available on the website.

Product Description
The Global Tropics Hazards Outlook is a probabilistic forecast for areas with elevated probabilities for above- or below-median rainfall, above- or below-normal temperatures and regions where tropical cyclogenesis is favored for the upcoming Week-2 and Week-3 time periods. The rainfall outlook is for precipitation integrated over a week and targets broad-scale patterns, not local conditions as they will be highly variable. Above (below) median rainfall forecast areas are depicted in green and brown respectively. Above (below) normal temperature forecast areas are depicted in orange and blue respectively. Favored areas for tropical development are shown in red. Three probability intervals are indicated for precipitation and temperature which are set at 50, 65, and 80%, while the probability intervals for tropical cyclone development are set at 20, 40, and 60%. The weekly verification period ranges from 00 UTC Wednesday to 00 UTC the following Wednesday.

Along with the product graphic, a written text outlook discussion is also included at release time. The narrative provides a review of the past week across the global Tropics, a description of the current climate-weather situation, the factors and reasoning behind the depicted outlook and notes on any other issues the user should be aware of. The discussion discusses the impacts in the Tropics as well as potential impacts in the Extratropics when relevant.


Product Physical Basis
The product synthesizes information and expert analysis related to climate variability across multiple time scales and from various sources, including operational climate monitoring products. The physical basis for the outlooks include El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) , the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), strength and variations of the monsoon systems, other coherent subseasonal tropical variability such as atmospheric Kelvin waves (KW), Equatorial Rossby waves (ERW), African easterly waves, as well as interactions with the extratropical circulation (i.e. high latitude blocking, low-latitude frontal activity, etc.).

Product Forecast Tools
The outlook maps are currently based on a number of forecast tools, many of which are objective and serve as an objective first guess. The final depiction is an assessment of these objective forecast tools augmented by the forecaster when based on additional forecast information when appropriate to create the final product. Forecast tools include MJO composites, empirical and dynamical based MJO, ERW and KW forecasts, and bias-corrected dynamical model guidance from a number of modeling systems. Tropical cyclone areas are based on MJO composites and statistical and dynamical tropical cyclone forecast guidance products as well as raw model forecast guidance.

Product Purpose
The product supports the NOAA mission in three primary ways:
  1. Assess and forecast important changes in the distribution of tropical convection (i.e., potential circulation changes across the Pacific and North America sectors) and communicate this information to NWS forecasters
  2. Provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the global tropics (including tropical cyclone risks for several NWS regions)
  3. Support various sectors of the U.S. economy (finance, energy, agriculture, water resource management) that have foreign interests.
Product Partners
The product is created through collaboration with other NOAA centers, [the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)], the Department of Defense [The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)], the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Taiwan Central Weather Bureau, the State University of New York at Albany (SUNY) and the Center for Climate and Satellites (CICS), among other collaborators.

Product Users and Applications
Known users include U.S. government agencies such as NOAA [National Weather Service (NWS), River Forecast Centers (RFCs), the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), the Department of the Interior (U.S. Forest Service), aid organizations (U.S. and international Red Cross, USAID), domestic and global private sector interests (financial, energy, water resource management and agricultural sectors), international weather services and various media meteorologists.

Some special applications of the product in the past include extended range predictions to support Haiti earthquake and Deepwater Horizon oil spill relief efforts as well as support for the Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) scientific field campaign held from October 2011 through March 2012.

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Page last modified: 6-Sep-2024 9:13 AM EDT
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