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HOME > Climate & Weather Linkage > Global Tropics Outlook


Weeks 2-3 Global Tropics Hazards Outlook (GTH)

For week-1 tropical cylone information and forecasts, please visit the National Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. For week-1 precipitation and temperature related products, please visit the Weather Prediction Center or refer to your local NWS office.

ATTENTION:

The Climate Prediction Center is soliciting comments from August 1, 2023 through December 31, 2024 on the implementation of the Week 2 and experimental Week 3 Global Tropics Hazards Outlook.

Here is the Survey.


GTH Outlook Map and Data
Last Updated - 03/12/24
GIS Ready Formats
Hazard
Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability KMZ KML SHP KMZ KML SHP
Enhanced Precipitation Probability KMZ KML SHP KMZ KML SHP
Suppressed Precipitation Probability KMZ KML SHP KMZ KML SHP
Above Average Temperatures Probability KMZ KML SHP KMZ KML SHP
Below Average Temperatures Probability KMZ KML SHP KMZ KML SHP

Tropical Cyclone Only GTH Map
Precipitation Only GTH Map
Temperature Only GTH Map
Lines Only GTH Map

Latest Product (PDF Format)
Latest Briefing (PDF Format)
GTH Archive
 
GTH Outlook Discussion
Last Updated - 03/12/24
Valid - 03/20/24 - 04/02/24
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remained robust during the past week, with the enhanced convective phase propagating from the Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent. The RMM-based MJO index and CPC upper-level velocity potential based index both show strong amplitude, with clearly established eastward propagation at a phase speed consistent with canonical MJO activity. Widespread enhanced convection erupted over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean northwest of Australia, the strongest convection observed in that location for months, as the MJO destructively interfered with the low frequency El Nino base state. During the next two weeks, dynamical model MJO index forecasts show MJO activity propagating to the Pacific, with remarkable consistency among the various model systems and ensemble members depicting a strong, fast moving event. The forecast phase speed of the MJO as it propagates to the Pacific is more consistent with a convectively coupled Kelvin wave, and it is possible that constructive interference between the MJO, a Kelvin wave, and Rossby wave activity over the Pacific is helping to generate the strong projection of the index. Beyond Week-2, dynamical models still favor continued MJO activity across the Western Hemisphere, with spread among the ensemble members increasing. Based on these outlooks, the MJO is favored to play a substantial role in the evolution of the tropical convective pattern over the next several weeks. Constructive interference between the MJO and the decaying ENSO signal is favored for much of this outlook, which could lead to an enhancement of southern stream moisture across the southern tier of the CONUS. Although a trade wind disruption is likely to occur as the MJO crosses the Pacific, cooler water prevails across the upper layer of the Pacific basin, so any downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave activity will be shallow and short lived. If the MJO persists beyond Week-3, a trade wind surge across the Pacific could bring an end to El Nino conditions.

Two tropical cyclones (TCs) formed during the past week. Tropical Storm Filipo formed over the Mozambique Channel on March 10, making landfall over Mozambique and then re-emerging over open water. Forecasts from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) show no additional threats to land from this system. Tropical Cyclone 18S formed on March 11 over the southeastern Indian Ocean, and is favored to gradually intensify. Impacts to Australia’s Kimberley Coast are possible within the next week. During the outlook period, strong MJO activity is tied to increased favorability for tropical cyclogenesis in the vicinity of Australia during Week-2, with potential formation areas shifting towards the Coral Sea as the MJO propagates eastward. Dynamical model forecasts show an increased chance for TC genesis over the Gulf of Carpentaria, warranting a 40 percent chance for formation during Week-2. During Week-3, the South Pacific is favored to become increasingly active, with the GEFS ensembles in particular depicting potential formations even east of the Date Line. Although the MJO can generate early season formations over the northwestern Pacific, dynamical model guidance is not supportive of development in that basin.

Forecasts for above- and below-normal precipitation are based on an anticipated continuation of the atmospheric response to above-normal sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern Pacific, though upwelling of colder water will soon bring an end to the warmer SSTs, especially across the far eastern Pacific. The MJO will also play a role in the overall precipitation pattern, both through constructive interference with the ENSO base state and potentially increasing convection across the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) region, and suppression across the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. Across the Western Hemisphere, enhanced precipitation is favored during Week-2 for the southeastern CONUS with an active southern jet. Persistent heat is favored to continue across portions of South America and southern Africa.

For hazardous weather conditions in your area during the coming two-week period, please refer to your local NWS office, the Medium Range Hazards Forecast produced by the Weather Prediction Center, and the CPC Week-2 Hazards Outlook. Forecasts made over Africa are made in coordination with the International Desk at CPC.




Product Release Information
The Global Tropics Hazards Outlook (GTH) is released once per week every Tuesday at 1730 UTC (1830 UTC when on standard time) including U.S. federal holidays. At the time of product release, there is a live briefing (available via Google Meet) open to all stakeholders where the latest conditions and the newly released outlook are shared with the opportunity to ask questions. Folks that are interested in learning more or attending these briefings should contact Jon.Gottschalck@noaa.gov, Scott.Handel@noaa.gov, Adam.Allgood@noaa.gov and Nicholas.Novella@noaa.gov for the required information. Each weekly outlook and GTH release briefing is Archived and available on the website.

Product Description
The Global Tropics Hazards Outlook is a probabilistic forecast for areas with elevated probabilities for above- or below-median rainfall, above- or below-normal temperatures and regions where tropical cyclogenesis is favored for the upcoming Week-2 and Week-3 time periods. The rainfall outlook is for precipitation integrated over a week and targets broad-scale patterns, not local conditions as they will be highly variable. Above (below) median rainfall forecast areas are depicted in green and brown respectively. Above (below) normal temperature forecast areas are depicted in orange and blue respectively. Favored areas for tropical development are shown in red. Three probability intervals are indicated for precipitation and temperature which are set at 50, 65, and 80%, while the probability intervals for tropical cyclone development are set at 20, 40, and 60%. The weekly verification period ranges from 00 UTC Wednesday to 00 UTC the following Wednesday.

Along with the product graphic, a written text outlook discussion is also included at release time. The narrative provides a review of the past week across the global Tropics, a description of the current climate-weather situation, the factors and reasoning behind the depicted outlook and notes on any other issues the user should be aware of. The discussion discusses the impacts in the Tropics as well as potential impacts in the Extratropics when relevant.


Product Physical Basis
The product synthesizes information and expert analysis related to climate variability across multiple time scales and from various sources, including operational climate monitoring products. The physical basis for the outlooks include El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) , the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), strength and variations of the monsoon systems, other coherent subseasonal tropical variability such as atmospheric Kelvin waves (KW), Equatorial Rossby waves (ERW), African easterly waves, as well as interactions with the extratropical circulation (i.e. high latitude blocking, low-latitude frontal activity, etc.).

Product Forecast Tools
The outlook maps are currently based on a number of forecast tools, many of which are objective and serve as an objective first guess. The final depiction is an assessment of these objective forecast tools augmented by the forecaster when based on additional forecast information when appropriate to create the final product. Forecast tools include MJO composites, empirical and dynamical based MJO, ERW and KW forecasts, and bias-corrected dynamical model guidance from a number of modeling systems. Tropical cyclone areas are based on MJO composites and statistical and dynamical tropical cyclone forecast guidance products as well as raw model forecast guidance.

Product Purpose
The product supports the NOAA mission in three primary ways:
  1. Assess and forecast important changes in the distribution of tropical convection (i.e., potential circulation changes across the Pacific and North America sectors) and communicate this information to NWS forecasters
  2. Provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the global tropics (including tropical cyclone risks for several NWS regions)
  3. Support various sectors of the U.S. economy (finance, energy, agriculture, water resource management) that have foreign interests.
Product Partners
The product is created through collaboration with other NOAA centers, [the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)], the Department of Defense [The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)], the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Taiwan Central Weather Bureau, the State University of New York at Albany (SUNY) and the Center for Climate and Satellites (CICS), among other collaborators.

Product Users and Applications
Known users include U.S. government agencies such as NOAA [National Weather Service (NWS), River Forecast Centers (RFCs), the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), the Department of the Interior (U.S. Forest Service), aid organizations (U.S. and international Red Cross, USAID), domestic and global private sector interests (financial, energy, water resource management and agricultural sectors), international weather services and various media meteorologists.

Some special applications of the product in the past include extended range predictions to support Haiti earthquake and Deepwater Horizon oil spill relief efforts as well as support for the Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) scientific field campaign held from October 2011 through March 2012.

Product Resources

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Page last modified: 6-Mar-2024 12:53 PM EST
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