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HOME > Climate & Weather Linkage > Global Tropics Benefits/Hazards

Beginning June 6, 2014, CPC will be issuing an operational update of this product every Friday by 1 PM ET to further support the NWS regions. The update will only span the release period from June 1 through November 30 and a region from 120E to the Prime Meridian in longitude and from the equator to 40N in latitude. The update will not extend the time horizon of the product, but rather apply for the remaining 4 days of the previous Week-1 time period and Days 5-11 from the previous Week-2 period. This page will depict both the original and updated outlook maps as well short text outlining the forecast rationale for any changes.

Last Updated - 06.26.15 (Update)


\"Global
GIS Ready Formats
 
Tropical Cyclone Formation KMZ / KML / SHP KMZ / KML / SHP
Upper Tercile Precipitation KMZ / KML / SHP KMZ / KML / SHP
Lower Tercile Precipitation KMZ / KML / SHP KMZ / KML / SHP

Global Tropical Hazards/Benefits Assessment

Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion

Updated discussion
Last Updated: 06.26.15 Valid: 06.27.15 - 07.07.15
The update to the GTH outlook on 6/26 reflects only minor changes from the previous outlook. The MJO remains active and forecasts for its evolution remain consistent from that showed earlier this week. Only minor adjustments were made to precipitation highlighted areas. A slight increase in eastward extent and coverage is indicated in the update for parts of the Maritime continent and a slight northward shift in the above median precipitation area during Week-2 across the western Pacific. Also, the above median precipitation region along the equatorial was extended to approximately 110 W in both periods consistent with the latest model guidance. Only minor changes were made to tropical cyclone genesis regions from the earlier outlook.

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Previous discussion follows
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The MJO remained active during the past week with the enhanced convective phase now centered over the Maritime continent (MC) as indicated by both the RMM and CPC velocity potential indices. A strong atmospheric Kelvin wave is also evident in the data with its enhanced convective phase currently crossing the eastern Pacific. The MJO enhanced phase is currently destructively interfering with the El Nino base state as enhanced convection is evident over much of the region in close proximity to the MC.

Over the past week enhanced convection was observed in a tilted pattern from India southeastward across Southeast Asia to the MC eastward to the central Pacific. The large region is due to combinations of the enhanced phase of both the MJO and the KW as well as the El Nino base state. Suppressed convection was observed across the equatorial Indian Ocean, the western Pacific east of the Phillippines and areas of the Caribbean. Tropical cyclone Kujira developed in the South China Sea during the past week and made landfall in southern China on the 22nd with minimal impact.

Dynamical model RMM forecasts offer considerable forecast spread for the future evolution of the MJO signal in the coming two weeks but most to first order forecast eastward propagation of an MJO signal of varying amplitudes into the western Pacific over the period. Of the solutions with the largest amplitude in Week-2, the ensemble GFS and ECMWF shift the signal to Phase 7 by the end of the two week period. Issues resolving the KW evolution versus the slower MJO envelope may in part be responsible for the varying solutions amongst the solutions.

The Week-1 forecast illustrates a large area of enhanced convection from India southeastward to the western Pacific and then eastward to the east-central Pacific based on contributions from the MJO and El Nino and consistent with model guidance from the GFS, CFS and ECMWF. The MJO and El Nino are expected to constructively interfere and likely promote widespread enhanced convection over much of the Pacific basin during the next few weeks. MJO composites and model guidance support suppressed rainfall across the Gulf of Guinea section of Africa and much of the equatorial Indian Ocean to the central MC. Active convection and a favorable environment associated with the MJO favors tropical cyclogenesis east of the Philippines. The El Nino base state and model guidance supports the forecast of suppressed rainfall for portions of Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. Enhanced rainfall is forecast for northern Mexico based primarily on model guidance. A tropical cyclone is likely to form very early in the period in the Arabian Sea and impact the Indian subcontinent.

The forecast pattern during Week-2 is similar to that depicted for Week-1 but with some eastward and northward propagation of the highlighted areas in the Eastern Hemisphere. Suppressed convection is forecast from southern India across the MC with the region of enhanced convection stretching from Southeast Asia to the eastern Pacific. Tropical cyclone development is favored across a large region in the central Pacific during the period. Enhanced (suppressed) convection remains forecast for northern Mexico into the southwest U.S. (proximity to the Caribbean) in Week-2.

Product Release Information

The Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook is released once per week every Tuesday at 1530 UTC (1630 UTC when on standard time) including U.S. federal holidays. At the time of product release, there is a live briefing (available via webinar) open to all interested parties in which the latest conditions in the Tropics and the just released outlook and associated impacts are discussed. There is an opportunity to ask questions after the briefing and the briefings are available at the Live Briefing Archive.

Product Description

The Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook is a forecast for areas with elevated odds for above- or below-median rainfall and regions where tropical cyclogenesis is favorable or unfavorable for the upcoming Week-1 and Week-2 time periods. The rainfall outlook is for precipitation integrated over a week and targets broad-scale patterns, not local conditions as they will be highly variable. Above(below) median rainfall forecast areas are depicted in green and yellow respectively. Favored areas for tropical development are shown in red. Two measures of confidence are indicated, high (solid) and moderate (hatched) and are currently subjective in nature and not based on an objective system. Work towards a probabilistic format of the product and so an objective measure of confidence is ongoing. The weekly verification period ranges from 00 UTC Wednesday to 00 UTC the following Wednesday.

Along with the product graphic, a written text outlook discussion is also included at release time. The narrative provides a review of the past week across the global Tropics, a description of the current climate-weather situation, the factors and reasoning behind the depicted outlook and notes on any other issues the user should be aware of. The discussion discusses the impacts in the Tropics as well as potential impacts in the Extratropics when relevant.

Product Physical Basis

The product synthesizes information and expert analysis related to climate variability across multiple time scales and from various sources, including operational climate monitoring products. The physical basis for the outlooks include El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) , the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), strength and variations of the monsoon systems, other coherent subseasonal tropical variability such as atmospheric Kelvin waves (KW), Equatorial Rossby waves (ERW), African easterly waves, as well as interactions with the extratropical circulation (i.e. high latitude blocking, low-latitude frontal activity, etc.).

Product Forecast Tools

The outlook maps are currently created subjectively based on a number of forecast tools, many of which are objective. The final depiction is an assessment of these forecast tools based on a number of factors to create the final product. Work is ongoing to create an objective consolidation of some of the available forecast tools to serve as a first guess for the forecaster. Forecast tools include MJO composites, empirical and dynamical based MJO, ERW and KW forecasts, and raw dynamical model guidance from a number of modeling systems. Tropical cyclone areas are based on MJO composites and statistical and dynamical tropical cyclone forecasts as well as raw model forecast guidance.

Product Purpose

The product supports the NOAA mission in three primary ways:

  1. Assess and forecast important changes in the distribution of tropical convection (i.e., potential circulation changes across the Pacific and North America sectors) and communicate this information to NWS forecasters
  2. Provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the global tropics (including tropical cyclone risks for several NWS regions)
  3. Support various sectors of the U.S. economy (finance, energy, agriculture, water resource management) that have foreign interests.

Product Partners

The product is created through collaboration with other NOAA centers, [the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)], the Department of Defense [The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)], the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Taiwan Central Weather Bureau, the State University of New York at Albany (SUNY) and the Center for Climate and Satellites (CICS), among other collaborators.

Product Users and Applications

Known users include U.S. government agencies such as NOAA [National Weather Service (NWS), River Forecast Centers (RFCs), the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), the Department of the Interior (U.S. Forest Service), aid organizations (U.S. and international Red Cross, USAID), domestic and global private sector interests (financial, energy, water resource management and agricultural sectors), international weather services and various media meteorologists.

Some special applications of the product in the past include extended range predictions to support Haiti earthquake and Deepwater Horizon oil spill relief efforts as well as support for the Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) scientific field campaign held from October 2011 through March 2012.

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Page Author: CPC Web Team
Page last modified: 9-Jun-2014 3:37 PM EDT
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