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As of the May 19th, 2017, release, Week 3-4 outlooks precipitation outlooks are experimental, whereas the temperature outlooks are operational. Both are issued Friday between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time.
HOME> Outlook Maps> Week 3-4 Outlooks

Week 3-4 Outlooks
Valid: 31 Mar 2018 to 13 Apr 2018
Updated: 16 Mar 2018

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Temperature Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

Click HERE for information about how to read Week 3-4 outlook maps

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Mar 16 2018

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Mar 31 2018-Fri Apr 13 2018

La Nina conditions currently are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Both the La Nina and the coupled atmospheric response to this cold event weakened considerably in recent weeks. The CPC velocity potential based and RMM MJO indices indicate the MJO signal has weakened considerably during the past few weeks, with the enhanced convective phase currently located over the eastern Indian Ocean. The MJO is predicted to continue to weaken over the next two weeks. The Week 3/4 temperature and precipitation outlooks rely primarily on dynamical model forecasts from the NCEP CFS, ECMWF and JMA operational ensemble prediction systems, as well as forecasts from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), a multi-model ensemble (MME) of experimental ensemble prediction systems. Consideration is also given to the possible evolution of the predicted circulation pattern for Week-2.

The various model guidance supporting the Week 3-4 outlook is in good agreement today, depicting a trough over the great lakes region, while anomalous ridging is indicated over western Alaska and the Aleutians. The CFS, ECMWF and JMA ensemble means depict near- to above-normal 500-hPa heights over most of the southern and eastern CONUS as well as Alaska, while near- to below-normal 500-hPa heights are indicated over most parts of the north-central CONUS. The CFS and ECMWF favor near-normal 500-hPa heights over Hawaii, while the JMA predicts above-normal 500-hPa heights over Hawaii.

Calibrated temperature forecasts from the individual models and multi-model combinations of these forecasts favor an enhanced likelihood of near- to above-normal temperatures across most of southern CONUS, and near- to below normal temperatures over much of the northern CONUS. This is also supported by the Multiple Linear Regression tool that uses ENSO, MJO, and long-term trend time series. Near- to Above-normal temperatures are forecast over western Alaska, while below-normal temperatures are indicated over eastern Alaska, consistent with dynamical model guidance from SubX.

The various guidance is also in good agreement on the precipitation outlook. Near and downstream of a predicted trough, near- to above-median precipitation is favored over much of the eastern CONUS. The various dynamical guidance as well as statistical guidance is in good agreement on below-median precipitation over the southwestern CONUS and southern Alaska, and above-median precipitation over Washington.

Dynamical model guidance from CFS and ECMWF temperature forecasts indicate increased probabilities of above-normal temperatures for Hawaii during the Week 3-4 period. The CFS/ECMWF/JMA correlation weighted consolidation forecast favors above-median precipitation over Kahului and Honolulu.

Temperature Precipitation
Hilo A60 EC
Kahului A60 A55
Honolulu A60 A55
Lihue A60 EC

Forecaster: Luke He

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Mar 23, 2018

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period

These are two category outlooks and differ from official current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.

As of May 19, 2017, the temperature outlook is operational, while the precipitation outlook is still experimental

An ASCII (w/ HTML markup tags) text version of the written forecast is available.

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Page last modified: Nov 08 2017
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