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Week 3-4 outlooks are experimental at this time, and are issued Friday between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time.
HOME> Outlook Maps> Experimental Week 3-4 Outlooks

Experimental Week 3-4 Outlooks
Valid: 01 Apr 2017 to 14 Apr 2017
Updated: 17 Mar 2017

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Temperature Probability

Experimental Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

Experimental Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

Click HERE for information about how to read Week 3-4 outlook maps

Prognostic Discussion for Experimental Week 3-4 Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Mar 17 2017

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Apr 01 2017-Fri Apr 14 2017

The various model guidance supporting the Week 3-4 outlook is in good agreement today, resulting in a forecast with fairly high coverage. The CFS, ECMWF, and JMA broadly agree on the 500-hPa circulation pattern which features ridging off the West Coast, weak anomalous troughing over the west-central CONUS, and anomalous ridging extending from Canada southeastward over parts of the eastern U.S. Statistical guidance is largely based on long-term trends, given weak MJO and ENSO forcing. While the remnant MJO enhanced phase is now over the Maritime Continent, the lagged response at these timescales is muted during this time of year. The constructed analog based on 200-hPa streamfunction shares some similarities with the dynamical guidance, though it forecasts a more amplified longwave pattern over the eastern Pacific and North America.

Above-normal temperatures are favored most heavily over the southern tier of the CONUS, extending northward through the Midwest and Great Lakes. Below-normal temperatures are more likely for parts of the Northwest and Rockies, where anomalous northerly mid-level flow is forecast. Over the Northeast, equal chances is indicated due to a tendency in the Week-2 guidance to build anomalously strong surface high pressure systems over Southeast Canada, which increases odds for periodic cold air intrusions over the Northeast. Raw dynamical model temperature anomalies for the Week 3-4 period are negative over this region, but this is mitigated by long-term trends in deriving the official outlook. Above-normal temperatures are favored over much of Alaska, a distinct change from recently observed persistent cold anomalies.

The various guidance is in unusually good agreement on the precipitation outlook. Near and downstream of anomalous troughing, above-median precipitation is favored over much of the central and eastern CONUS. Below-median precipitation is more likely over California and parts of the Southwest downstream of forecast ridging off the West Coast. Probabilities are muted given the limited skill of precipitation forecasts for the Week 3-4 period.

Across Hawaii, dynamical model guidance and persistence favor above-normal temperatures and below-median precipitation.

Temperature Precipitation
Hilo A60 B55
Kahului A60 B55
Honolulu A60 B55
Lihue A60 B55

Forecaster: Stephen Baxter

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Mar 24, 2017

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period

These are experimental two category outlooks and differ from official operational current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.

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