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Week 3-4 outlooks are experimental at this time, and are issued Friday between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time.
HOME> Outlook Maps> Experimental Week 3-4 Outlooks

Experimental Week 3-4 Outlooks
Valid: 11 Mar 2017 to 24 Mar 2017
Updated: 24 Feb 2017

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Temperature Probability

Experimental Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

Experimental Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

Click HERE for information about how to read Week 3-4 outlook maps

Prognostic Discussion for Experimental Week 3-4 Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Mar 11 2017-Fri Mar 24 2017

Limited canonical large-scale tropical climate impacts have been apparent in the midlatitudes in recent weeks, with the extratropics seemingly driving the circulation. This scenario looks to continue, with anomalous ridging present in the North Pacific and another block favored to develop during Week-2 in the North Atlantic. Some reasons for the limited tropical influences may be the transition to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions and the ongoing, active Madden-Julian Oscillation being near the fast end of its phase speed spectrum, evidenced by its recent circumnavigation of the globe in 31 days. Given the aforementioned circumstances, the present outlook is based predominantly on dynamical model guidance and progression of the pattern from the current Week-2 outlook.

Forecast anomalous 500-hPa heights are largely consistent between the CFS and ECMWF ensembles, with each projecting well onto the negative phase of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO; ridging over the Kamchatka Peninsula and troughing north of Hawaii and south of Hudson Bay). Each model also features anomalous ridging focused on California and extending northward through the Canadian border. Differences exist within the individual weekly solutions, particularly regarding the troughing over Hudson Bay with the CFS extending this feature further south in Week-3 while the ECMWF is more amplified in Week-4. The JMA solution generally dissents from the CFS and JMA, instead featuring anomalous troughing in the Gulf of Alaska and over the Canadian Maritimes with anomalous ridging present over the Northern Plains. The JMA solution is discounted due to its inconsistency with the Week-2 pattern, divergence relative to the CFS and ECMWF guidance, and generally inferior skill to the other ensemble suites. Also noteworthy is the 200-hPa streamfunction constructed analog tool, which is nearly orthogonal with the CFS and ECMWF, supporting instead a positive NPO and an extremely warm forecast for much of the country.

Temperature forecasts are based on the combined CFS-ECMWF circulation perspective, with the anomalous ridging potential leading to above-normal temperatures for most parts of the CONUS west of the Mississippi and also into the Gulf States. Below-normal temperatures are favored across portions of the Northeast and New England in line with model guidance, although probabilities are increased slightly due to potential for lingering troughing upstream of the block favored to develop by Week-2 in the North Atlantic. Anomalous northerly winds are favored for Alaska outside of the panhandle, resulting in the most robust probabilities for below-normal temperatures across the country.

Precipitation outlooks feature below-median precipitation across much of the West, due to the anomalous ridging favored for this area. Energy is instead favored to be pushed northward into Washington state and the Alaska panhandle, where above-median precipitation is favored. The anomalous northerlies elsewhere in Alaska support below-median precipitation across much of the remainder of the state. With anomalous 500-hPa troughing favored for eastern Canada, the mean frontal zone would be anticipated in the vicinity of the eastern seaboard, with elevated chances of above median precipitation here for portions of New England stretching through Florida and back into the Gulf States.

Above-normal temperatures are forecast across Hawaii due to persistent anomalously warm sea surface temperatures and positive 500-hpa height anomalies across the region. Dynamical model guidance consistently favors below-median precipitation here with the exception of Lihue.

Temperature Precipitation
Hilo A55 B55
Kahului A55 B55
Honolulu A55 B55
Lihue A55 EC

Forecaster: Daniel Harnos

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Mar 03, 2017

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period

These are experimental two category outlooks and differ from official operational current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.

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