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As of the May 19th, 2017, release, Week 3-4 outlooks precipitation outlooks are experimental, whereas the temperature outlooks are operational. Both are issued Friday between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time.
HOME> Outlook Maps> Week 3-4 Outlooks

Week 3-4 Outlooks
Valid: 02 Jun 2018 to 15 Jun 2018
Updated: 18 May 2018

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Temperature Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

Click HERE for information about how to read Week 3-4 outlook maps

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jun 02 2018-Fri Jun 15 2018

ENSO-neutral conditions currently are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and above average in the western Pacific. The CPC velocity potential based and RMM MJO indices indicate a sub-seasonal signal that recently emerged and amplified across the Western Hemisphere within the past several days, accompanied by some eastward propagation from phase 8 into phase 2. The GEFS depicts slight eastward propagation and rapid weakening of the sub-seasonal signal, then the signal is predicted to continue to weaken over the western Indian Ocean during Week-2. The Week 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks rely primarily on dynamical model forecasts from the NCEP CFS, ECMWF, and JMA operational ensemble prediction systems, as well as forecasts from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), a multi-model ensemble (MME) of experimental ensemble prediction systems. Consideration is also given to the possible evolution of the predicted circulation pattern for Week-2.

The various model guidance supporting the Week 3-4 outlook is in good agreement today, depicting troughs over the Aleutians, the west coast of the CONUS, and the eastern CONUS, while ridging is forecast over mainland Alaska and western Canada. The CFS and ECMWF ensemble means favor near- to above-normal 500-hPa heights over the CONUS. The CFS and ECMWF favor slight above-normal 500-hPa heights over Hawaii.

Near- to above-normal 500-hPa heights enhance probabilities for above-normal temperatures for most of the CONUS, except for portions of the Florida Peninsula where below-normal temperatures are indicated due to above-average cloudiness and rainfall to enhance probabilities of below-normal temperatures there. This pattern is also supported by dynamical model temperature guidance tools (CFS and ECMWF). Calibrated temperature forecasts from the individual models and multi-model combinations of these forecasts also favor above-normal temperatures for Alaska, consistent with dynamical model guidance from SubX.

The various guidance is in fairly good agreement on the precipitation outlook. There are enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation for much of the southeastern CONUS associated with the continued moist pattern and several predicted tropical systems. Calibrated precipitation forecasts from the individual models and multi-model combinations of these forecasts favor below-median precipitation over parts of the northeastern CONUS and the Northwest. Persistent troughing near the Aleutians leads to enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation for western Alaska and the Aleutians.

Across Hawaii, odds tilt towards above-normal temperatures and precipitation further east that decrease to the west. Below-normal temperatures are forecast for Lihue where SSTs are currently below normal. Model guidance indicates a continuation of the relatively warm and wet conditions that have impacted the eastern islands in recent months.

Temperature Precipitation
Hilo A60 A60
Kahului A55 A55
Honolulu EC EC
Lihue B55 EC

Forecaster: Luke He

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, May 25, 2018

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period

These are two category outlooks and differ from official current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.

As of May 19, 2017, the temperature outlook is operational, while the precipitation outlook is still experimental

An ASCII (w/ HTML markup tags) text version of the written forecast is available.

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Page last modified: Nov 08 2017
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