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As of the May 19th, 2017, release, Week 3-4 outlooks precipitation outlooks are experimental, whereas the temperature outlooks are operational. Both are issued Friday between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time.
HOME> Outlook Maps> Week 3-4 Outlooks

Week 3-4 Outlooks
Valid: 02 Feb 2019 to 15 Feb 2019
Updated: 18 Jan 2019

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Temperature Probability


Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
(Experimental)


Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

Click HERE for information about how to read Week 3-4 outlook maps

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Feb 02 2019-Fri Feb 15 2019

MJO-related convection is predicted to emerge over the Maritime Continent in the next couple days and progress eastward into the Western Pacific in the next two weeks by dynamical model forecasts. MJO-related convection could potentially re-emerge and progress into the Western Pacific in weeks 3 and 4, according to dynamical model forecasts, however the state of the MJO during the Week 3-4 period is very uncertain. While ENSO-neutral conditions persist over the equatorial Pacific and the latest weekly Nino 3.4 SST anomaly is at positive 0.4 degrees Celsius, El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the spring season, according to the official ENSO outlook and various statistical and dynamical models. Therefore, a statistical tool based on multivariate regression of temperature and precipitation impacts on MJO and ENSO indices has only a small impact on the current Week 3-4 Outlook. The current Week 3-4 Outlook is based primarily on calibrated probability forecasts of the CFS, ECMWF and JMA ensemble prediction systems, as well as probabilistic guidance from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), a multi-model ensemble (MME) of experimental and operational ensemble prediction systems.

While above normal temperatures are likely across the West in the Week 3-4 outlook, under a predicted ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies, probabilities for above normal temperatures over the eastern Rocky Mountains are reduced in the Week 3-4 Outlook relative to last week's outlook, with potential variability during the period represented by variations in the dynamical model forecasts. While most models indicate greater probabilities for mean above normal temperatures across the western CONUS over the Week 3-4 period, the ECMWF indicates increased probabilities for below normal temperatures during week 3 in parts of the Northern Rockies into Montana, Wyoming and Colorado, and the SubX MME indicates weaker probabilities for mean above normal temperatures, during the Week 3-4 period, over parts of the Central and Southern Rockies, where individual models, including the operational Canadian ensemble, indicate increased probabilities for below normal during the period. The potential for intrusions of cold air into the western CONUS during the Week 3-4 period reduces the probabilities for mean above normal temperatures in the Week 3-4 Outlook. With a predicted trough and mean northerly flow over much of the east, below normal temperatures are most likely across much of the eastern CONUS from the Southern Plains and the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard, with the greatest probabilities over the Northeast. Above normal temperatures are likely for much of Alaska, under anomalous southerly flow in a consensus of operational models and the SubX MME. With sea surface temperatures currently below normal in the vicinity of the northwest coast of Alaska and North Slope, equal chances of below and above normal temperatures is indicated.

With a mean ridge over western North America in dynamical model forecasts and northerly flow over much of the central and eastern CONUS west of a predicted trough axis, below normal precipitation is most likely over a broad area of the CONUS from Southern California, across the Southwest and the Central and Southern Plains, into most of the East. A potential for Atlantic coastal storms impacting the Northeast leads to equal chances of above and below normal precipitation over parts of the Atlantic coast of the Northeast. Above normal precipitation is more likely over the Florida Peninsula, where a mean front is most likely to be located. Above normal precipitation is likely for northern areas of eastern Montana and western North Dakota, where storm systems may move southward east of a predicted ridge. The CFS and some models of the SubX bring a predicted trough over the North Pacific close to the west coast resulting in greater probabilities for above normal precipitation over Northern California and the Pacific Northwest, while the ECMWF, Canadian and JMA ensembles indicate below normal precipitation is more likely for the region. Due to uncertainty in the precipitation forecast, equal chances of above and below normal precipitation are indicated for the Northwest CONUS. Mean troughing over the Aleutian Islands in dynamical model forecasts leads to likely above normal precipitation for much of the southern coast of Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle, supported by precipitation forecasts from the ECMWF and JMA ensembles and the SubX MME.

Probabilistic forecasts from the SubX MME indicate likely above normal temperatures for all of the Hawaiian Islands, with greater probabilities for the southeast islands and lower probabilities for the northwest islands. Consensus probability forecasts from the SubX MME indicate below normal precipitation is likely across the Hawaiian Islands.







Temperature Precipitation
FCST FCST
Hilo A80 B70
Kahului A75 B70
Honolulu A70 B70
Lihue A65 B70


Forecaster: Dan Collins

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Jan 25, 2019

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period

These are two category outlooks and differ from official current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.



The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.



As of May 19, 2017, the temperature outlook is operational, while the precipitation outlook is still experimental



An ASCII (w/ HTML markup tags) text version of the written forecast is available.

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