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Valid Sunday, May 05, 2013 to Thursday, May 16, 2013

Summary of Forecasts and Hazards

US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 02 2013

SYNOPSIS: EARLY IN THE PERIOD, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TO ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE WESTERN U.S. AS AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REST OF THE STATE. LATER IN THE PERIOD, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S., AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES.

HAZARDS DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SUNDAY MAY 05 - THURSDAY MAY 09: WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, MIDWEST, NORTHERN PLAINS, AND GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC, SUN-MON, MAY 5-6.
LATER IN THE PERIOD, LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH COULD EXACERBATE AND EXPAND THE AREAS OF FLOODING. SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THE SPECIFICATION OF A HAZARD AREA AT THE CURRENT TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS LEADING TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST, SUN-MON, MAY 5-6.

OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW AND A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WASHINGTON, OREGON, NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN IDAHO, AND WESTERN MONTANA, SUN-THU, MAY 5-9. GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUN MAY 5, BUT WINDS SPEEDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO CALIFORNIA, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, AND SOUTHWEST. WHILE THIS IS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA, SUN-THU, MAY 5-9.

FOR FRIDAY MAY 10 - THURSDAY MAY 16: DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTY, NO SPECIFIC HAZARDS, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING AND SEVERE DROUGHT, CAN BE IDENTIFIED ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES. RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH DURING WEEK-2. RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA DURING EARLY MAY.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID APRIL 30, SEVERE (D2) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT COVERAGE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 33 PERCENT, MOSTLY RELATED TO DROUGHT INTENSIFICATION ACROSS TEXAS.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

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