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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made May 22, 2015

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Monday May 25, 2015 to Friday June 05, 2015

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT May 22 2015

Synopsis: A warm, humid pattern is forecast to dominate over parts of the eastern U.S. during much of the period, while an active pattern is forecast to continue over the nation's midsection. Upper-level high pressure is expected to persist over Alaska during the next two weeks, while a gradual warming trend is forecast over the western U.S. early in the period.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Monday May 25 - Friday May 29: During this period, an amplified upper-level trough is forecast to lift northeastward out of the west-central CONUS while weakening, while robust upper-level ridging is forecast to persist near the East Coast. Surface low pressure associated with the former is expected to move quickly northeastward toward the Great Lakes, producing heavy rain in the warm sector across southeastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Precipitation amounts of 1-4 inches are forecast for the area depicted on the map over a 2-day period.

Given recent heavy rainfall over the central and southern Plain, with more anticipated even before the start of this period, saturated soils will undoubtedly lead to flooding areas. Other small areas of flooding are depicted in parts of Colorado and Nebraska. Due to the frequent and often rapid changes in flood areas designated on the Hazards map, it is recommended that residents consult the very latest information at the River Forecast Center (RFC) homepage at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/rfc/rfc.php

A weaker shortwave is forecast to move through the mean trough centered near the Rockies later in the period. This is expected to trigger another round of locally heavy rainfall for parts of the central and southern plains by next Wednesday and Thursday. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with this feature, so it will be important to monitor the next hazards update on Monday for the latest information.

Strong to severe thunderstorms may also develop during this period across central and southern portions of both the Plains and Mississippi Valley. Fairly poor run-to-run continuity among various dynamical models, regarding the timing of individual short-wave features expected to move through this region, precludes the designation of a severe weather area on the map at this time.

As an upper-level ridge builds over the Southeast Coast, hot and humid conditions are forecast to return to parts of the eastern CONUS during the period. High temperatures could exceed 90 degrees for three or more consecutive days over the depicted region, following a warm frontal passage on Monday. The hazard is depicted over the region where maximum daytime temperatures are forecast to be greater than 10 degrees above normal and approach or exceed 90 degrees.

In the eastern interior of Alaska, continued warm, dry, and breezy conditions favor an increased chance of critical wildfire conditions throughout this period, as well as the ensuing Week-2 period.

For Saturday May 30 - Friday June 05: The expected mid-tropospheric flow pattern for Week-2 features an amplified ridge over western Canada and Alaska, and a deep trough over eastern northeastern Canada. A less-amplified pattern is predicted over the CONUS (especially compared to higher latitudes), with a climatological trough centered over California, and quasi-zonal flow downstream over the remainder of the CONUS.

The enhanced risk of wildfires noted for eastern interior Alaska during the 3-7 day period is likely to extend throughout most, if not all, of Week-2. Well above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation are anticipated during this period, associated with the predicted persistence of an anomalous mid-tropospheric ridge.

Warm and humid conditions are more than likely going to persist across parts of the eastern CONUS, at least early in the period, where a slight risk of much above-normal temperatures is indicated over the Mid-Atlantic.

The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, released yesterday, indicates a substantial decrease (from 17.68 to 15.16) in the percentage of the CONUS in severe to exceptional drought (D2-D4).

Forecaster: Stephen Baxter

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