US HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300
PM EDT SEPTEMBER 04 2008
SYNOPSIS: TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY MORNING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD, RAPIDLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS SHOULD BE AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD TO THE NYC AREA. FARTHER WEST,
LINGERING FLOODING FROM THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE LINGERING
FLOODING FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES OVER EASTERN FLORIDA. A POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS STORM FOR EAST COAST INTERESTS, IKE, IS FORECAST TO BE AT CATEGORY 3
STRENGTH IN THE WESTERN BAHAMAS NEXT TUESDAY AND TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE PATH THAT IKE WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE, BUT THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FROM FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA COULD BE EXPERIENCING IMPACTS
FROM A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING TUESDAY TO THURSDAY. THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SHOULD BE CONSULTED FOR CURRENT INFORMATION ON
HANNA AND IKE.
HAZARDS - RIVER FLOODING OF THE RIO GRANDE
DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIO CONCHOS THRU SEP 7.
- STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM HANNA OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON SEP 7.
- LINGERING FLOODING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN FLORIDA UNTIL MONDAY SEP 8.
- FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH ANTECEDENT HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE REMAINS OF
HURRICANE GUSTAV OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION UNTIL SEP 7.
- STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS FROM HURRICANE IKE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
DURING SEP 9-11.
- DROUGHT RELIEF FOR THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST DUE TO HANNA BEFORE THE START OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE LITTLE RELIEF FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
AND THE WEST.
- SOME DROUGHT RELIEF LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 2 WEEKS IN THE SCATTERED DROUGHT
AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DETAILED SUMMARYFOR SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 07 -
TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 09: HANNA MAY STILL BE AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AS SHE
PULLS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF MAINE ON SUNDAY MORNING TOWARD
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BY TUESDAY, THE MORE POWERFUL IKE IS FORECAST TO BE IN
THE WESTERN BAHAMAS WITH 105-KNOT WINDS, A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. LOCATION ERROR
IS GENERALLY LARGE THIS FAR AHEAD OF TIME, BUT THE STORM COULD BE BRINGING WIND
AND RAIN TO FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/) FOR THE LATEST
DEVELOPMENTS REGARDING TROPICAL STORM EVOLUTION. IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY,
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD WILL DUMP MORE RAIN ON AREAS FLOODED BY GUSTAV.
THE WEST SHOULD BE MAINLY WARM AND DRY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
SOME HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA AS WELL AS THE
PANHANDLE.
FOR WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 10 -
SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 14: A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
MOST OF THE REST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRIGGER MORE RAIN
FOR AREAS AFFECTED BY GUSTAV'S FLOODING IN THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ATTENTION WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WHICH IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IKE'S PATH AFTER TUESDAY
IS VERY UNCERTAIN, WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM
FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA WILL EXPERIENCE SOME EFFECTS FROM IKE. SINCE IKE IS
FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ON SEPTEMBER
8-9, THIS STORM COULD BE A DANGEROUS THREAT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD IF IT DOES
NOT TURN RECURVE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.
FOR MONDAY SEPTEMBER 15 -
THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 18: IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
MAY BECOME A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE DURING THE PERIOD. THE LACK OF PREDICTABILITY
AT THIS TIME RANGE PRECLUDES THE FORECAST OF SPECIFIC HAZARDS.
FORECASTER: DOUG LECOMTE
$$