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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made August 03, 2015

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo HazardsNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Thursday August 06, 2015 to Monday August 17, 2015

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT August 03 2015

Synopsis: A frontal system is forecast to move eastward across the northern CONUS during the 3-7 day Outlook period, weakening as it approaches New England. A cold front is predicted to move deep into the Southeast, and gradually become stationary. These two systems are expected to be the main producers of precipitation during the 3-7 day period across the contiguous U.S. Tropical storm Guillermo, currently located over the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean, is forecast to pass close to, perhaps just north of, the Hawaiian Islands at the beginning of the Outlook period. A fairly large low pressure system is anticipated to affect southwestern and southern Alaska.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Thursday August 06 - Monday August 10: As a low pressure center moves across the mid-Atlantic region and off the Northeast coast, the trailing cold front is forecast to move into the deep South, before becoming stationary. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of this region, though the best chances for heavy rain (1-2 inches) extend from eastern sections of both Kentucky and Tennessee generally northeastward to include much of the mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Another area that is anticipated to receive comparable rainfall amounts is northeastern Kansas and western Missouri. Several days later, relatively small-scale areas of heavy rain are anticipated over portions of the Midwest, and northern Florida and southern Georgia. Periods of heavy rain are forecast for the Dakotas and Minnesota during most of this period, though this is largely due to an approaching frontal system from the northern Rockies. At the present time, no areas of severe weather are highlighted, for any of the region generally encompassing the northern and central Plains, the middle Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. The main reason for this is the expectation of outflow boundaries associated with overnight thunderstorm clusters (MCS's), and their tendency to stabilize the boundary layer the following afternoon. These outflow boundaries make it very challenging to pinpoint where subsequent convection may develop.

According to the USDA Forest Service, there are nearly 2 dozen large wildfires in progress across the West Coast states, with the greatest concentration of wildfires in California. Fires in the northwest area of California (generally near or in the coastal mountains) have burned anywhere from 3000 to 54000 acres, as of today. These wildfires appear to be related to stronger winds associated with a 500-hPa trough near the coast, and the presence of dry vegetative fuels in this region.

Tropical Storm Guillermo is currently (5am Hawaiian Standard Time) located about 630 miles east-southeast of Hilo, HI, moving slowly toward the Hawaiian archipelago. It is a strong tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. Dynamical model guidance predicts Guillermo will pass close to the Islands just prior to, and during the first two days of, the beginning of this period. The official track, issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, has Guillermo passing just north of Hawaii as a still-potent tropical storm. Residents across the 50th state are encouraged to obtain the very latest information on this storm by consulting local news media, and/or the CPHC at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/.

A fairly large low pressure system is predicted to move eastward across the southern coast of Alaska during this period, bringing clouds and precipitation. However, at this time, no weather-related hazards are expected with this system.

For Tuesday August 11 - Monday August 17: By the end of the 3-7 day period, and into at least the first half of Week-2, the highest 500-hPa heights associated with the subtropical ridge are forecast to shift from the Southwest into the southern Great Plains region. This favors a slight risk of much above-normal temperatures across the south-central CONUS. Mid-tropospheric troughs are anticipated near the Pacific Coast, and the Atlantic Coast states.

The latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor map, released on July 30th, shows a slight increase in the coverage of severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4) across the contiguous U.S., from 16.74 percent to 17.17 percent. According to AHPS, rainfall has been below-normal during the past two weeks for most areas east of the Mississippi River, though with one significant exception. For most of the northwest quarter of the Florida peninsula, rainfall amounts have ranged from 5-8 inches above normal, and even higher in some localized areas. This is associated with a weak area of low pressure over northern Florida. In contrast, southern Florida is running a 1-3 inch rainfall deficit during the last 14 days.

Forecaster: Anthony Artusa

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