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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made March 26, 2015

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Sunday March 29, 2015 to Thursday April 09, 2015

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT March 26 2015

Synopsis: At the start of the period, cold surface high pressure is expected over the eastern lower 48 states. Surface low pressure is forecast to move along the central and eastern U.S./Canadian border as its associated cold front moves across the central and eastern U.S. A frontal system is anticipated to approach the northwestern part of the nation. Surface low pressure is forecast near the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska. By mid-period, another area of low pressure is expected to cross the Great Lakes. Later in the period, areas of upper-level low
are forecast over the northeastern U.S. and the central Great Basin.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Sunday March 29 - Thursday April 02: Cold high pressure leads to much below normal temperatures (negative anomalies of 10-15 degrees F) for parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, central and southern Appalachians, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and northeast Mar 29. Strong flow around the rearside of this area of high pressure in combination with low pressure forecast to move across the U.S./Canadian border is predicted to lead to high winds (in excess of 30 knots) for parts of the Northern and central Plains, Upper and Middle Mississippi Valleys, Great Lakes, Ohio valley, central Appalachians, northeast, and Mid-Atlantic Mar 29-30.

Onshore flow and a frontal system lead to heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) for parts of northwest Washington Mar 29-30, heavy precipitation (rainfall in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours at lower elevations, snowfall in excess of 4 inches in 24 hours at higher elevations) for northern parts of the Cascade Range Mar 29-Apr 1, and heavy snow (in excess of 4 inches in 24 hours) for the highest elevations of the Bitterroots Mar 31-Apr 1.

Antecedent rainfall leads to ongoing flooding for parts of east Texas early in the period. As a shortwave crosses this region, additional heavy rainfall is possible Mar 31-Apr 1, but model uncertainty precludes the specification of a hazard shape at the current time.

For Friday April 03 - Thursday April 09: Areas of upper-level low pressure lead to a slight chance of much below normal temperatures for parts of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic Apr 4-6, and the central Great Basin Apr 5.

The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, valid March 24, indicates a very slight increase (16.24 to 16.97) in the percentage of land in severe drought (D2-D4).

Forecaster: Randy Schechter


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.