Home Site Map News Organization
Briefing Page

Download KML
Day 3-7 Precipitation
Day 3-7 Temperature
Day 3-7 Soils
Day 8-14 Precipitation
Day 8-14 Temperature
Day 8-14 Soils

Download Shapefiles
Day 3-7 Precipitation
Day 3-7 Temperature
Day 3-7 Soils
Day 8-14 Precipitation
Day 8-14 Temperature
Day 8-14 Soils

Hazards Archives

About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made October 24, 2014

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo HazardsNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Monday October 27, 2014 to Friday November 07, 2014

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT October 24 2014

Synopsis: Low pressure systems are predicted to bring unsettled weather to New England, the Pacific Northwest, and southern Florida, while the rest of the Lower 48 is expected to see relatively calm weather. No cold air outbreaks are expected, as the flow is predicted to come primarily off the Pacific Ocean.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Monday October 27 - Friday October 31: A strong upper-level trough is forecast to move through southern Canada and amplify as it moves past the Great Lakes and the northeast. Its associated surface low is then expected to strengthen and increase the pressure gradient around it. This strong pressure gradient is predicted to lead to high winds for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on the 26th and the northeast on the 27th.

Concurrently, an upper-level trough is forecast to make its way across the Lower 48. Warm, moist flow from the Gulf of Mexico is expected ahead of the surface cold front, leading to showers and locally severe weather. The low is currently predicted to intensify as it nears the Great Lakes, which means the greatest chance for heavy rain and widespread severe weather exists from the Ohio Valley back down to the Lower Mississippi Valley on either Tuesday the 28th or Wednesday the 29th. Also, on the backside of the storm, enough cold air might exist for some snow in parts of the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. At this time, any potential snowfall does not appear to reach hazardous criteria, but is mentioned as it would be the first appreciable snowfall this season for this part of the country.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Ana is then expected to interact with an extratropical upper-level trough and move into the Pacific Northwest. While the exact details of this interaction remain uncertain, there is a good level of confidence that Ana's remnants will bring heavy rain along the West Coast, from northern California to the Canadian border from the 27th to the 29th. An additional 3 to 5 inches of rain is possible during this time period. Considering the almost 10 inches that will have fallen during the past seven days as well as before this Outlook period begins, flooding is a distinct possibility. This moisture is also predicted to bring heavy low elevation rain and high-elevation snow to parts of northern Idaho.

An upper-level trough is forecast to move from northeastern Russia across the Bering Sea. The associated surface low is expected to direct high winds and significant waves to the west coast of Alaska, from about the Kuskokwim Delta to Kotzebue Sound on the 26th and 27th. Concurrently, a very strong storm is forecast to form and move from just north of Japan into the Bering Sea. This storm is predicted to bring another round of high winds and strong waves to most of the west coast of Alaska from the 29th to the 30th.

For Saturday November 01 - Friday November 07: There is a lot of disagreement at this time range between the GFS and other numerical models. The GFS predicts a strong upper-level trough digging down into the Mississippi Valley with a strong coastal low developing off the mid-Atlantic Coast. This solution would bring heavy rain to the coasts and heavy snow to the Appalachians and Great Lakes. However, other models do not amplify the trough this deeply, and instead, a surface low skims New England. This would bring the potential of heavy snow to Maine, but due to the uncertainty, no hazards are indicated at this time.

The most recent Drought Monitor, released October 23, shows a slight decrease in the areal coverage of severe drought, from 18.01% to 18.0%. There is also the largest amount of areal extent without any level of dryness since December 2011.

Forecaster: Kenneth Pelman


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.