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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made October 30, 2014

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
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Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Sunday November 02, 2014 to Thursday November 13, 2014

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT October 30 2014

Synopsis: At the start of the period surface low pressure if forecast to deepen off the Mid-Atlantic/New England coasts. Cold high pressure over the central U.S. is forecast to build in behind the area of low pressure off the east coast. An area of low pressure over the Central Great Basin is expected to move to the Northern Plains as onshore flow gets reestablished over the Pacific Northwest.
Surface low pressure is forecast near the Aleutians and southern coast of Alaska as high pressure builds over the northern part of the state. By mid-period, a frontal system and area of low pressure are expected over the central part of the nation.




Hazards Detailed Summary

For Sunday November 02 - Thursday November 06: Low pressure is forecast to deepen off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts on Sat and Sun as cold high pressure build over the east central CONUS. This is expected to lead to heavy snow (in excess of 4 inches in 24 hours) for parts of the central and southern Appalachians Sat, heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) for parts of eastern Maine Sat-Sun, heavy snow for parts of the Northeast Sun,




A deep upper-level trough leads to heavy precipitation (rainfall in excess of 1 inch at lower elevations, heavy snowfall in excess of 6 inches at higher elevations) for parts of the California Sierras on Fri. Onshore flow leads to heavy rain (1-2 inches in 24 hours) for parts of the Pacific Northwest Sun-Mon. The deep upper-level trough could lead to heavy snow for the higher elevations of the western CONUS but model uncertainty precludes the specification of hazard areas at the current time.

The tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the the central CONUS and low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes is expected to cause high winds (speeds in excess of 30 knots) for parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Fri. Lake effect snow is possible for parts of the Great Lakes on Fri, but model uncertainty precludes the specification of a hazard area at the current time.

As low pressure deepens off the New England coast, high winds (in excess of 30 nots) are likely for parts of the Great Lakes, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast Sat-Mon. Heavy snow is possible for parts of Northern Maine and interior New England Sat, but model uncertainty precludes the specification of a hazard area at the current time.

The tight pressure gradient between low pressure forming over the Rockies and the area of high pressure over the Central CONUS leads to high winds (in excess of 30 knots) for parts of the Rockies, Plains, southwest, Central Great Basin, and Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley Fri-Sun. The area of high pressure is expected to lead to much below normal temperatures (8-12 degrees below normal) for parts of the central and southern Appalachians, southeast, and Mid-Atlantic Sat-Mon. Frost and hard freezes are possible for parts of these regions.

As the area of low pressure and its associated frontal system over the Rockies moves eastward across the Plains, moisture will be drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico leading to heavy rain (1-1.5 inches in 24 hours) for parts of the Central and Southern Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley Mon-Tue. Additional tropical moisture crossing Mexico may enhance precipitation amounts.

Deep low pressure over the south coast of Alaska leads to high winds (in excess of 30 knots) for parts of the Aleutians and coastal sections of western Alaska Fri. This scenario also leads to the possibility of significant waves (wave heights in excess of 20 feet) for parts of the Aleutians Fri. High pressure building north of Alaska leads to high winds (in excess of 30 knots) for parts of the North Slope of Alaska Sat-Mon.

High pressure building over the western CONUS on Sun-Mon leads to downsloping off-shore flow. High winds (in excess of 30 knots) can be expected for coastal sections of Central and Southern California Sat-Sun.

For Friday November 07 - Thursday November 13: A low amplitude, mostly zonal flow pattern is anticipated across most of the CONUS which suggests the air masses over the country will largely be of Pacific origin. No hazard areas can currently reliably be specified.

The most recent Drought Monitor, released October 23, shows a slight decrease in the areal coverage of severe drought, from 18.01% to 18.0%. There is also the largest amount of areal extent without any level of dryness since December 2011.

Forecaster: Randy Schechter

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