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Categorical Outlooks Day 8-14

Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks Temperature Hazards Precipitation Hazards Wind Hazards Snow Hazards

Valid Tuesday April 23, 2024 to Monday April 29, 2024

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT April 15 2024

Synopsis: Overall, the week-2 period looks fairly quiet with mid-level ridging forecast across the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) east of the Rocky Mountains. Surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS from week-1 will bring slight chances for a frost or freeze to areas that may damage sensitive vegetation in portions of the East. This area of high pressure is forecast to progress eastward into the western Atlantic which will help to bring return flow off the Gulf of Mexico into the Mississippi Valley and the surrounding areas. This increases chances for heavy precipitation into these regions. Following the initial return flow, a trough progressing eastward out of the West may bring increased chances for heavy rain and thunderstorms into the Central and Southern Plains. In parts of the Lower-Mississippi flooding remains a concern, particularly if additional rain falls in this area.

Hazards

• Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of the Central Plains, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic, Tue, Apr 23.
• Slight risk of heavy precipitation across portions of the Central and Southern Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Wed-Mon, Apr 24-29.
• Possible flooding across portions of northeastern Texas, extreme southeastern Oklahoma, and much of the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Detailed Summary

For Thursday April 18 - Monday April 22: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Tuesday April 23 - Monday April 29:

Forecaster: Ryan Bolt

$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.

Resources

Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool

GFS Ensemble Forecasts