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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made June 28, 2016

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo Hazards
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Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Friday July 01, 2016 to Tuesday July 12, 2016

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT June 28 2016

Synopsis: At the beginning of the forecast period a stationary front is anticipated to extend from the Southern Plains eastward through the Mid Atlantic. Early in week-1 a cold front is forecast to drop down across the Plains, and merge with the aforementioned boundary. Periodic disturbances are expected to ride along this boundary bringing heavy rainfall to the area. Mid-level high pressure is forecast south and west of this frontal activity, with heat-related hazards possible in the latter half of week-1. Mid-level high pressure is generally forecast for the CONUS during week-2. Periodic weak disturbances are anticipated to impact Southern Alaska during both weeks 1 and 2.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Friday July 01 - Tuesday July 05: At the beginning of week-1 500-hPa ridging is forecast across the western CONUS with troughing through the Great Lakes. Over the course of week expectations are for the pattern to progress eastward and flatten out slightly, with greatest positive height anomalies forecast through the Northern Rockies and Plains. South of these forecast height anomalies associated with a stationary front, persistent heavy rainfall (exceeding 1" in 24 hours) is forecast across the Central Plains and Middle-Mississippi Valley Friday-Sunday, July 1-3. This precipitation is expected to shift its focal region slowly eastward during this 3-day period. No severe weather threats are indicated on the forecast map, but any severe activity early in week-1 would likely be collocated with this heavy precipitation region. Further east along the stationary boundary, a second region of heavy rainfall is possible for Eastern North Carolina on Monday, July 4. A region linking the two heavy rainfall shapes was considered, however model guidance diverges substantially on the location and intensity of precipitation between both the operational and ensemble GFS and ECMWF respectively. The GFS is generally more intense with its rainfall forecasts and less progressive, while the ECMWF has a faster and drier solution. Increased consistency between the two models for delineation of a hazard will be sought in upcoming forecasts given the currently diverging solutions.

Outside of the heavy rainfall impacts from the stationary front, heat and fire-related hazards are possible in the South and West. Across much of South Texas on Saturday, July 2 through Tuesday, July 5 excessive heat is forecast, with initial concern across the southern parts of this shape before increasing north and east throughout the period. Here temperatures are forecast to generally be in the mid- to upper-nineties, but moist south-southeasterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico is anticipated to drive the heat index to 105-110 Fahrenheit. A second region of excessive heat is forecast across the Desert Southwest Sunday, July 3 through Tuesday, July 5 where maximum temperatures are forecast to approach 110 degrees Fahrenheit. Also across the west elevated risks of fire weather are possible for portions of the interior Pacific Northwest on Friday, July 1 and Southern California Friday, July 1 through Sunday, July 3 associated with dry conditions and potentially strong, but non-hazardous, winds.

Periodic disturbances are expected to impact Alaska during week-1, with no hazards currently anticipated. The GEFS and operational GFS do support potential for 24-hour rainfall exceeding 3" across portions of the Alaska Range early in week-1, however, the ECMWF projects this precipitation to be further north and west while failing to approach hazards criteria.

For Wednesday July 06 - Tuesday July 12: Ridging at 500-hPa is forecast across the CONUS during week-2, with greatest positive height anomalies across the northern tier while the GEFS is slightly more amplified than the ECMWF. Over the course of the week this ridge is forecast to retrograde westward somewhat, becoming focused across the Southern Rockies. For Wednesday, July 6 a slight risk of much-above normal temperatures is forecast across much of the Great Plains beneath the ridge-axis, where the GEFS probabilistic extremes tool indicates a greater than 20% chance of exceeding the 85th percentile of climatological maximum temperatures. Later in week-2 as the ridge retrogrades westward, a slight risk of much above-normal temperatures are forecast across much of the Great Basin and Southwest, where similar risks of exceeding the 85th percentile of climatological maximum temperatures are indicated by the GEFS.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), valid on June 21, severe, or greater intensity, drought covers 4.24 percent of the U.S. Drought Monitor areas (including Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico), up slightly from 4.00 percent on June 14.

Forecaster: Daniel Harnos

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