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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made October 01, 2014

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo HazardsNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Saturday October 04, 2014 to Wednesday October 15, 2014

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT October 01 2014

Synopsis: Surface low pressure over the Northern Great Lakes is forecast to move into Southern Canada as its trailing cold front moves eastward across the east-central U.S. and off the east coast. A second area of low pressure is forecast to form on the front over the Mid-Atlantic and move towards New England. Surface low pressure is expected over the Gulf of Alaska and southeastern Alaska as another area of low pressure approaches the Aleutians.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Saturday October 04 - Wednesday October 08: Strong surface low pressure over the Northern Great Lakes is forecast to move into Southern Canada as a second area of low pressure forms on its trailing cold front. This is expected to cause heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in a 24-hour period) for parts of the Northeast on Saturday. The tight pressure gradient behind the departing area of low pressure is forecast to lead to high winds (in excess of 30 knots) for parts of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes Fri-Sat.

An area of deep low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska is expected to bring heavy rain to the Alaskan panhandle before this Outlook period begins. Because this area has seen almost 10 inches of rain in recent days, the threat of mudslides exist.

Upper-level ridging is predicted for the west coast, with surface high pressure moving into the Four Corners region. This setup favors strong downslope winds for most of California. These winds are forecast to cause much above normal temperatures for the Central Valley in California on Saturday, with maximum temperatures expected to be well into the mid 90's, which is more than 12 degrees F above normal. Despite the combination of warm temperatures, gusty winds, and dry soils, no enhanced risk of wildfires is indicated due to uncertainty in the strength of these anticipated downslope winds.

For Thursday October 09 - Wednesday October 15: A moderately amplified flow pattern is anticipated for much of the CONUS during the period. A trough is predicted over the east-central CONUS. Deep low pressure is forecast to approach the Aleutians and western Alaska early in the period, but model uncertainty precludes the specification of hazard areas at the current time.

The U.S. Drought Monitor, valid on September 23, indicates that the percentage of the CONUS in severe to exceptional drought decreased to below 19 percent.

Forecaster: Kenneth Pelman

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Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.