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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made March 04, 2015

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
Temperature
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Saturday March 07, 2015 to Wednesday March 18, 2015

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST March 04 2015

Synopsis: Arctic high pressure is expected over the south-central and eastern U.S. Surface low pressure is expected to move northeastward across the Great Lakes and north of New England. Return flow around the rear side of the area of high pressure will gradually draw moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Surface low pressure is forecast to cross central Alaska with cold surface high pressure then anticipated to build over western and northern Alaska. A 2nd area of surface low pressure is expected to approach the Aleutians. Deep upper-level low pressure is forecast near and north of the Hawaiian Islands. During week 2, areas of upper-level low pressure are forecast over the northeast, southern Plains, and Alaska.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Saturday March 07 - Wednesday March 11: Arctic high pressure dominates much of the eastern and south-central CONUS which leads to much below normal temperatures (negative anomalies of 12-24 degrees) spreading eastward across much of the south-central and eastern CONUS (except the southeast) Mar 7-8. Low pressure is forecast to move across the northern Great Lakes and north of New England. The tight pressure gradient between this area of low pressure and the area of arctic high pressure leads to high winds (in excess of 30 knots) for coastal sections of the northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic Mar 7. As the arctic high pressure moves off the east coast, a moist return flow is expected to get established leading to heavy rain for parts of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast Mar 9-10. This rainfall is expected to gradually spread north and eastward, but model uncertainty precludes the specification of additional hazard shapes at this time.

Antecedent rainfall, along with snow melt and the expectation of additional precipitation before the start of the period leads to possible or likely river flooding for parts of Kentucky.

Low pressure and its associated frontal system are expected to move across central and southern Alaska leading to heavy snow (in excess of 6 inches in 24 hours) for parts of central Alaska near and south of the Brooks Range Mar 7. High winds (in excess of 30 knots) are anticipated for parts of western and southern coastal Alaska Mar 7-11 as a 2nd area of low pressure approaches the Aleutians. In addition, significant waves (in excess of 18 feet) are anticipated for coastal sections of southwestern Alaska Mar 7, and the Aleutians Mar 9-10. High pressure building over western and northern Alaska leads to much below normal temperatures (20-30 degree negative anomalies) for parts of central and eastern Alaska Mar 9-11.

A 500-hPa trough over the east-central Pacific is predicted near and north of Hawaii. As a result, several models predict rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches for the Islands in general, and locally up to a foot of rain is possible in Maui and the Big Island during this period.

For Thursday March 12 - Wednesday March 18: There is a slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for much of the Plains, parts of the Northern Rockies, Great Lakes, Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and southeast Mar 12-16 due to an area of upper-level low pressure. The expectation of upper-level low pressure also leads to a slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northeast Mar 13-15.

Upper-level low pressure leads to a slight risk of much below normal temperatures for much of central and eastern Alaska Mar 12-14, and a moderate risk of much below normal temperatures for parts of east-central Alaska Mar 12.

The most recent U.S. drought monitor, released February 26, 2015, indicates a slight decrease in the areal coverage of severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4) in the past week from 16.44 to 16.42 percent across the continental U.S. Forty percent of California remains designated in the exceptional drought (D4) category. Although most revisions made to the Monitor this week are fairly small, the more notable changes include a general 1-category improvement in Kentucky and western Tennessee, and a 1-category degradation across the central Gulf Coast area.

Forecaster: Randy Schechter

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