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U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made October 01, 2014
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Valid Saturday October 04, 2014 to Wednesday October 15, 2014
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EDT October 01 2014Synopsis
: Surface low pressure over the
Northern Great Lakes is forecast to move into Southern Canada as its trailing
cold front moves eastward across the east-central U.S. and off the east coast.
A second area of low pressure is forecast to form on the front over the
Mid-Atlantic and move towards New England. Surface low pressure is expected
over the Gulf of Alaska and southeastern Alaska as another area of low pressure
approaches the Aleutians. Hazards
Detailed Summary For Saturday
October 04 - Wednesday October 08:
- High winds for parts
of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes, Sat-Sun, Oct
- Heavy rain for parts of the Northeast, Sat, Oct 4.
- Flooding occurring or imminent for parts of west-central Florida and parts
of the High Plains.
- Much above normal temperatures for the Central Valley in California, Sat,
- Severe drought for the Central and Southern Great Plains, Southwest,
southern Georgia, Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and California.
Strong surface low pressure over the
Northern Great Lakes is forecast to move into Southern Canada as a second area
of low pressure forms on its trailing cold front. This is expected to cause
heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in a 24-hour period) for parts of the Northeast
on Saturday. The tight pressure gradient behind the departing area of low
pressure is forecast to lead to high winds (in excess of 30 knots) for parts of
the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes Fri-Sat.
An area of deep low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska is expected to bring
heavy rain to the Alaskan panhandle before this Outlook period begins. Because
this area has seen almost 10 inches of rain in recent days, the threat of
Upper-level ridging is predicted for the west coast, with surface high
pressure moving into the Four Corners region. This setup favors strong
downslope winds for most of California. These winds are forecast to cause much
above normal temperatures for the Central Valley in California on Saturday,
with maximum temperatures expected to be well into the mid 90's, which is more
than 12 degrees F above normal. Despite the combination of warm temperatures,
gusty winds, and dry soils, no enhanced risk of wildfires is indicated due to
uncertainty in the strength of these anticipated downslope winds. For Thursday
October 09 - Wednesday October 15:
A moderately amplified flow pattern is
anticipated for much of the CONUS during the period. A trough is predicted over
the east-central CONUS. Deep low pressure is forecast to approach the Aleutians
and western Alaska early in the period, but model uncertainty precludes the
specification of hazard areas at the current time.
The U.S. Drought Monitor, valid on September 23, indicates that the
percentage of the CONUS in severe to exceptional drought decreased to below 19
Forecaster: Kenneth Pelman
Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.