Valid Friday, July 25, 2014 to Tuesday, August 05, 2014
Summary of Forecasts and Hazards
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EDT July 22 2014Synopsis
: At the beginning of the period, an
area of upper-level high pressure is forecast over the southwest U.S., while
upper-level low pressure is anticipated over the northwest. The area of
upper-level low pressure is then expected to move east to the Northern Plains,
Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes and be replaced by strong upper-level
high pressure by end of the week 1/start of the week 2 period. Early in the
period, an area of surface low pressure is expected to movel slowly eastward
aross the Gulf of Alaska towards the Alaska Panhandle. Upper-level low pressure
is forecast to persist across most of Alaska during the remainder of the period
although upper-level high pressure is expected to build over the Aleutians.
Detailed Summary For Friday July 25 - Tuesday July 29:
- Much above normal temperatures for parts of the
central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley, Fri-Sat, Jul 25-26.
- Heavy rain for parts of the Alaska Panhandle, Fri-Sat, Jul 25-26.
- Much above normal temperatures for parts of the Northern Intermountain West
and Northern Rockies, Sun-Thu, Jul 27-31.
- Flooding occurring or imminent for parts of North Dakota.
- Severe drought for parts of the Great Plains, Southwest, Pacific Northwest,
Great Basin, and California.
A frontal system is
expected to bring unsettled weather to much of the eastern CONUS during the
period. Areas of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of
the region, but model uncertainty precludes the specification of hazard areas
at the current time.
A strong subtropical ridge is likely to strengthen across the Southwest and
bring much above normal temperatures for parts of the region. Maximum
temperatures are forecast to range from 105 to 115 degrees F across parts of
the desert Southwest on Thursday.
A trough over the northwest conus is forecast to move eastward and by
replaced by an amlified ridge. This is expected to lead to much above normal
temperatures for parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain West,
and Northern Rockies towards the end of the period. This is of particular
concern since numerous wildfires are burning across the Pacific Northwest and
Idaho. Smoke from these wildfires is likely to reduce air quality. [ Southern
and Central Wyoming will likely experience coontinued dry and breezy conditions
through Friday leading to elevated fire weather conditions]. Confidence is not
sufficent to include a critcal fire weather hazard at the current time.
Flooding is expected to persist along the Souris River in North Dakota.
An upper-level trough is forecast to result in an active pattern across
mainland Alaska. Although an active pattern is forecast, precipitation amounts
and winds speeds are expected to remain below hazards criteria.
Tropical activity over the eastern Pacific will need to be monitored for
possible impacts over Hawaii. For Wednesday July 30 - Tuesday
Early in the period, upper level ridging is forecast to prolong
much above normal temperatures for parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern
Intermountain West, and Northern Rockies.
Based on the latest Drought Monitor valid on July 15, the coverage of
severe to exceptional drought across the continental U.S. decreased from 25 to
24 percent during the past week.
Forecaster: Randy Schechter
Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.