Valid Sunday November 02, 2014 to Thursday November 13, 2014
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EDT October 30 2014Synopsis
: At the start of the period surface
low pressure if forecast to deepen off the Mid-Atlantic/New England coasts.
Cold high pressure over the central U.S. is forecast to build in behind the
area of low pressure off the east coast. An area of low pressure over the
Central Great Basin is expected to move to the Northern Plains as onshore flow
gets reestablished over the Pacific Northwest.
Surface low pressure is forecast near the Aleutians and southern coast of
Alaska as high pressure builds over the northern part of the state. By
mid-period, a frontal system and area of low pressure are expected over the
central part of the nation.
Detailed Summary For Sunday November
02 - Thursday November 06:
- Heavy snow for parts of northeastern
Maine, Sun, Nov 2.
- Heavy snow for higher elevations of North-Central Montana, Sun, Nov 2.
- Heavy rain for parts of the Southern and Central Plains and Middle
Mississippi Valley, Mon, Nov 3.
- Heavy rain for parts of the Southern Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi
Valley, and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Tue-Wed, Nov 4-5.
- Heavy precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern
Intermountain West, Sun-Wed, Nov 2-5.
- Much below normal temperatures for parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley,
Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, southern Appalachians, and Southeast,
Sun-Mon, Nov 2-3.
- High winds for parts of the Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Northeast,
Mid-Atlantic, and along much of the east coast, Sun-Mon, Nov 2-3.
- High winds for parts of coastal sections of the Pacific Northwest, Mon-Tue,
- High winds for parts of the Aleutians, Sun-Mon, Nov 2-3.
- High winds for parts of the North Slope of Alaska, Sun-Tue, Nov 2-4.
- High winds for parts of the Aleutians and west coastal Alaska, Wed-Thu, Nov
- Significant waves for parts of the Aleutians, Wed-Thu, Nov 5-6.
- Severe drought for the Central and Southern Great Plains, Southwest,
Southeast, Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and California.
Low pressure is forecast to deepen off the
Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts on Sat and Sun as cold high pressure build
over the east central CONUS. This is expected to lead to heavy snow (in excess
of 4 inches in 24 hours) for parts of the central and southern Appalachians
Sat, heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) for parts of eastern Maine
Sat-Sun, heavy snow for parts of the Northeast Sun,
A deep upper-level trough leads to heavy precipitation (rainfall in excess
of 1 inch at lower elevations, heavy snowfall in excess of 6 inches at higher
elevations) for parts of the California Sierras on Fri. Onshore flow leads to
heavy rain (1-2 inches in 24 hours) for parts of the Pacific Northwest Sun-Mon.
The deep upper-level trough could lead to heavy snow for the higher elevations
of the western CONUS but model uncertainty precludes the specification of
hazard areas at the current time.
The tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the the central
CONUS and low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes is expected to cause high
winds (speeds in excess of 30 knots) for parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley Fri. Lake effect snow is possible for parts of the Great Lakes on Fri,
but model uncertainty precludes the specification of a hazard area at the
As low pressure deepens off the New England coast, high winds (in excess of
30 nots) are likely for parts of the Great Lakes, Northeast, Ohio Valley,
Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast Sat-Mon. Heavy snow is
possible for parts of Northern Maine and interior New England Sat, but model
uncertainty precludes the specification of a hazard area at the current time.
The tight pressure gradient between low pressure forming over the Rockies
and the area of high pressure over the Central CONUS leads to high winds (in
excess of 30 knots) for parts of the Rockies, Plains, southwest, Central Great
Basin, and Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley Fri-Sun. The area of high
pressure is expected to lead to much below normal temperatures (8-12 degrees
below normal) for parts of the central and southern Appalachians, southeast,
and Mid-Atlantic Sat-Mon. Frost and hard freezes are possible for parts of
As the area of low pressure and its associated frontal system over the
Rockies moves eastward across the Plains, moisture will be drawn northward from
the Gulf of Mexico leading to heavy rain (1-1.5 inches in 24 hours) for parts
of the Central and Southern Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, and
Ohio Valley Mon-Tue. Additional tropical moisture crossing Mexico may enhance
Deep low pressure over the south coast of Alaska leads to high winds (in
excess of 30 knots) for parts of the Aleutians and coastal sections of western
Alaska Fri. This scenario also leads to the possibility of significant waves
(wave heights in excess of 20 feet) for parts of the Aleutians Fri. High
pressure building north of Alaska leads to high winds (in excess of 30 knots)
for parts of the North Slope of Alaska Sat-Mon.
High pressure building over the western CONUS on Sun-Mon leads to
downsloping off-shore flow. High winds (in excess of 30 knots) can be expected
for coastal sections of Central and Southern California Sat-Sun. For Friday
November 07 - Thursday November 13:
A low amplitude, mostly zonal flow
pattern is anticipated across most of the CONUS which suggests the air masses
over the country will largely be of Pacific origin. No hazard areas can
currently reliably be specified.
The most recent Drought Monitor, released October 23, shows a slight
decrease in the areal coverage of severe drought, from 18.01% to 18.0%. There
is also the largest amount of areal extent without any level of dryness since
Forecaster: Randy Schechter
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Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.