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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made January 23, 2015

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
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Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Monday January 26, 2015 to Friday February 06, 2015

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST January 23 2015

Synopsis: A surface low moving across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians is forecast to reach the mid-Atlantic coast by the start of the Hazards Outlook period. High pressure is predicted to follow in the wake of this system over the eastern half of the contiguous U.S. A cold front is then expected to sink southward and eastward out of Canada across the central and eastern states towards the middle of the period. West of the Continental Divide, high pressure is anticipated to generally bring fair weather. A broad area of surface low pressure is forecast to pass south of the Aleutians, and slowly track into the central and southern Gulf of Alaska.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Monday January 26 - Friday January 30: A clipper system is expected to move from the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians to the mid-Atlantic coast by Monday. Generally 2-4 inches of snow is predicted to accompany this clipper as it moves across the higher terrain of the central Appalachians to Chesapeake Bay. The forecast for the Delmarva Peninsula is less certain, as several computer models anticipate the clipper system may weaken across western Virginia and redevelop a significant distance off the Eastern Seaboard, thereby producing a relative minimum in expected precipitation amounts across the Delmarva Peninsula. Though the anticipated snowfall amounts are marginally heavy, they are more than enough to snarl commuter traffic in the Baltimore and Washington, D.C. areas on Monday morning.

Once the storm moves off the mid-Atlantic coast, it is then forecast to deepen and track northeastward over the western Atlantic. High winds (sustained speeds may reach 30 knots or greater) are anticipated along the Northeast U.S. coast on the rear side of the strengthening storm. Colder air is also expected to move in behind the storm, with much below-normal temperatures (generally 12-16 degrees below-normal) anticipated for New England, New York, and much of the mid-Atlantic region.

Surface high pressure is anticipated to build southward across Alaska during the first few days of this period. With high pressure initially centered over the Chukchi Sea, northwest flow is expected to impinge on the northern flank of the Brooks Range, and may result in blizzard conditions for eastern portions of the North Slope. This is a fairly common occurrence from near Prudhoe Bay and Deadhorse eastward, including the Kaktovik area. During this same period, much below-normal temperatures are also predicted for south-central and southeastern Alaska. Daily minimum temperatures may reach 30 degrees F below normal, while maximum temperatures may reach 40 degrees F below normal.

For Saturday January 31 - Friday February 06: A very amplified 500-hPa circulation pattern is predicted during Week 2, with a ridge over western North America, and a trough over eastern North America. The GEFS Reforecast Tool indicates a 30 to 50 percent chance of minimum temperatures reaching the lower 15th percentile compared to climatology for parts of the northeastern quarter of the CONUS for much of the week-2 period. Therefore, a slight risk of much below-normal minimum temperatures has been identified for much of the central and eastern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, mid- Atlantic, and Northeast from January 31 to February 4, and a moderate risk for a slightly smaller spatial area, valid for the same period.

The most recent U.S. drought monitor, released on January 22, 2015 indicates a very slight increase in the areal coverage of severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4) from 16.65 to 16.97 percent across the continental U.S.

Forecaster: Anthony Artusa


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.