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Categorical Outlooks Day 8-14

Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks Temperature Hazards Precipitation Hazards Wind Hazards Snow Hazards

Valid Tuesday July 08, 2025 to Monday July 14, 2025

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT June 30 2025

Synopsis: Mid-level high pressure is forecast to amplify and retrograde westward during week-2. This supports increased risk of extreme heat across portions of the northwestern contiguous U.S. (CONUS), extending southward through the California Central Valley. Extreme heat also remains a concern across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley due to elevated humidity levels combined with above-normal temperatures. Monsoon activity is forecast to continue across the Southwest, further enhanced by continued tropical cyclone activity acros the East Pacific. A slow moving frontal system favors increased chances of heavy precipitation across portions of the southeastern U.S. and Mid-Atlantic.

Hazards

• Slight risk of extreme heat across portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, Tue-Mon, Jul 8-14.
• Slight risk of extreme heat across portions of Interior California, the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Northern Rockies, Tue-Mon, Jul 8-14.
• Slight risk of heavy precipitation across portions of the Southwest, Central and Southern Rockies, and Central Great Basin, Tue-Mon, Jul 8-14.
• Slight risk of heavy precipitation across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, Southern Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast, Tue-Sat, Jul 8-12.
• Flooding possible across portions of Arizona and New Mexico.

Detailed Summary

For Thursday July 03 - Monday July 07: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Tuesday July 08 - Monday July 14:

Forecaster: Thomas Collow

$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.

Resources

Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool

GFS Ensemble Forecasts