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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made November 27, 2015

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo Hazards
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Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Monday November 30, 2015 to Friday December 11, 2015

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST November 27 2015

Synopsis: At the start of the period, surface low pressure over the southern Plains will move slowly east/northeastward to the Lower Mississippi Valley, and then northward to the Great Lakes. Arctic high pressure is expected over the western and central portions of the lower 48 states through the end of November. A frontal system is forecast to approach the west coast Dec 2-3. Surface low pressure just south of the Aleutians is anticipated to move slowly eastward Nov 30-Dec 2. An area of upper-level low pressure is expected over western Alaska Dec 4-7.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Monday November 30 - Friday December 04: Low pressure and its associated frontal system over the southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley are expected to act as a focusing mechanism for precipitation. Heavy rain (in excess of 1 inches in 24 hours) is anticipated for parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Nov 29. Behind the front, a cold air mass will surge southward along the Front Range into the southern High Plains and eastward toward the Great Lakes. Wintry precipitation is possible for parts of the central and northern Plains and western Great Lakes Sunday-Tuesday, but amounts are expected to be light so a hazard area is not currently depicted.

The area of arctic high pressure expected over the western and central CONUS leads to much below-normal temperatures for parts of the northern Intermountain west and central Great Basin Nov 29-30. Minimum temperatures of 12-20 degrees F below normal are forecast for the central and northern parts of the depicted hazard region.

A frontal system approaching the west coast leads to strong southwesterly flow and high winds (in excess of 30 knots) for coastal sections of Washington, Oregon, and northern California Dec 2-3. Heavy precipitation for these same regions are possible, but model uncertainty on precipitation amounts precludes the specification of a hazard shape at the current time.

The combination of snow melt and additional precipitation prior and during the period leads to likely or possible river flooding over parts of the central and southern Plains, Mississippi Valley, and southern Great Lakes.

Very active weather is forecast for southern Alaska this weekend, and the latest guidance suggests that a heavy precipitation hazard is prudent for parts of the Alaska Panhandle Nov 29. Liquid amounts in excess of 2 inches in 24 hours are likely within the depicted hazard. Snowfall in excess of 8 inches in 24 hours is possible at higher elevations.

For Saturday December 05 - Friday December 11: During week-2, a zonal flow pattern is expected across much of the CONUS. A trough forecast over western Alaska leads to a slight chance of much below normal temperatures for parts of northern and western Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula Dec 4-7.

The most recent U.S. drought monitor, released on November 24, indicates a very slight decrease in the coverage of severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4), from 14.88 to 14.83.

Forecaster: Randy Schechter


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Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.