Climate Prediction Center

US HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT SEPTEMBER 04 2008

SYNOPSIS: TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY MORNING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, RAPIDLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD TO THE NYC AREA. FARTHER WEST, LINGERING FLOODING FROM THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE LINGERING FLOODING FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES OVER EASTERN FLORIDA. A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM FOR EAST COAST INTERESTS, IKE, IS FORECAST TO BE AT CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH IN THE WESTERN BAHAMAS NEXT TUESDAY AND TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE PATH THAT IKE WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE, BUT THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA COULD BE EXPERIENCING IMPACTS FROM A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING TUESDAY TO THURSDAY. THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SHOULD BE CONSULTED FOR CURRENT INFORMATION ON HANNA AND IKE.

HAZARDS

RIVER FLOODING OF THE RIO GRANDE DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIO CONCHOS THRU SEP 7.
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM HANNA OVER THE NORTHEAST ON SEP 7.
LINGERING FLOODING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN FLORIDA UNTIL MONDAY SEP 8.
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH ANTECEDENT HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE GUSTAV OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION UNTIL SEP 7.
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS FROM HURRICANE IKE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING SEP 9-11.
DROUGHT RELIEF FOR THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST DUE TO HANNA BEFORE THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE LITTLE RELIEF FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST AND THE WEST.
SOME DROUGHT RELIEF LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 2 WEEKS IN THE SCATTERED DROUGHT AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 07 - TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 09: HANNA MAY STILL BE AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AS SHE PULLS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF MAINE ON SUNDAY MORNING TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BY TUESDAY, THE MORE POWERFUL IKE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN BAHAMAS WITH 105-KNOT WINDS, A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. LOCATION ERROR IS GENERALLY LARGE THIS FAR AHEAD OF TIME, BUT THE STORM COULD BE BRINGING WIND AND RAIN TO FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/) FOR THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS REGARDING TROPICAL STORM EVOLUTION. IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY, A COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD WILL DUMP MORE RAIN ON AREAS FLOODED BY GUSTAV. THE WEST SHOULD BE MAINLY WARM AND DRY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA AS WELL AS THE PANHANDLE.

FOR WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 10 - SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 14: A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MOST OF THE REST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRIGGER MORE RAIN FOR AREAS AFFECTED BY GUSTAV'S FLOODING IN THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ATTENTION WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IKE'S PATH AFTER TUESDAY IS VERY UNCERTAIN, WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA WILL EXPERIENCE SOME EFFECTS FROM IKE. SINCE IKE IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ON SEPTEMBER 8-9, THIS STORM COULD BE A DANGEROUS THREAT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD IF IT DOES NOT TURN RECURVE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.

FOR MONDAY SEPTEMBER 15 - THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 18: IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC MAY BECOME A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE DURING THE PERIOD. THE LACK OF PREDICTABILITY AT THIS TIME RANGE PRECLUDES THE FORECAST OF SPECIFIC HAZARDS.

FORECASTER: DOUG LECOMTE

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