Valid Monday June 01, 2015 to Friday June 12, 2015
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EDT May 29 2015Synopsis
: At the start of the period, a frontal
system is expected to be stalled over the southeastern U.S. before moving
slowly offshore. Moist easterly flow is expected over parts of central and
southern Florida. An area of low pressure is forecast to move slowly across the
northern Rockies to the Northern Plains. A cold front is forecast to cross the
Brooks Range of Alaska by Jun 1. An area of disturbed weather south of the
Mexican coast is forecast to track towards the west-northwest.
Summary For Monday June 01 - Friday June 05:
- Heavy rain for parts of the Mid-Atlantic,
Mon, Jun 1.
- Heavy rain for parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley,
Wed, Jun 3.
- Enhanced wildfire risk for interior eastern Alaska north of the Alaska
Range, Mon, Jun 1.
- Enhanced wildfire risk for interior eastern Alaska south of the Alaska
Range, Mon-Fri, Jun 1-Jun 5.
- Flooding is possible, imminent, or occurring across portions of the central
and west-central CONUS.
- Severe drought for parts of the northern Great Plains, Southwest, Great
Basin, California, and the Pacific Northwest.
At the start of the period a frontal system is forecast to stretch from off the
northeast coast southwestward to the Mid-atlantic and Tennessee and Lower
Mississippi valleys. As the front moves slowly southeastward it is expected to
act as a focusing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain (in
excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) is expected for parts of the Mid-Atlantic Jun 1.
Thunderstorms are likely during the period over this region but model
uncertainty precludes the specification of a severe weather hazard at the
current time. South of the front, moist easterly flow is expected to get
established over Florida Jun 3-4. This, in combination with a weak easterly
wave could bring heavy rain to southern Florida but model uncertainty is large
and a hazard shape is not currently specified. Isolated pockets of heavy rain
are also possible along parts of the central Gulf coast but exact locations are
too difficult to delineate at the present time.
Low pressure moving across the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains leads to
heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) for parts of the northern Plains
and Upper Mississippi Valley Jun 3. Thunderstorms are expected for parts of
these regions but model uncertainty precludes the specification of a severe
weather hazard shape at the current time.
In the eastern interior of Alaska, a cold front is expected to move across
the Brooks Range and bring cooler conditions north of the Alaska Range. Windy,
dry conditions lead to critical wildfire conditions north of the Alaska Range
Jun 1, and south of the Alaska Range Jun 1-Jun 5.
Numerous areas of possible, likely, imminent, and occurring flooding are
indicated over the central and west-central portions of the CONUS, with all the
heavy rain received in recent days and weeks. To obtain the very latest,
detailed information on the status of streams and rivers across the U.S.,
please consult the River Forecast Center (RFC) homepage at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/rfc/rfc.php. For Saturday June 06 - Friday
The expected mid-tropospheric flow pattern for Week-2 features a
low amplitude flow pattern with weak troughs near the west coast and Ohio
Valley, and a weak ridge over the west-central CONUS. Above normal temperatures
are anticipated over much of the eastern and western CONUS. Wetter than normal
conditions are anticipated for much of the central and eastern CONUS.
The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, released May 28th, indicates a
decrease (from 15.16 to 14.20) in the percentage of the CONUS in severe to
exceptional drought (D2-D4). This represents the smallest areal coverage of
D2-D4 since March 2011.
Forecaster: Randy Schechter
Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.