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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made August 28, 2014

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo HazardsNo HazardsNo Hazards
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Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Sunday August 31, 2014 to Thursday September 11, 2014

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT August 28 2014

Synopsis: A surface low pressure system is forecast to strengthen as it tracks towards the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday, while a strong cold front pushes east from the north-central Plains to the Midwest. An area of upper-level low pressure is expected to develop across the northwestern U.S. and persist into early September. Elsewhere, a subtropical ridge of high pressure is forecast to build across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. A series of weak low pressure systems are expected to progress east from the Bering Sea and affect Alaska during the next week.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Sunday August 31 - Thursday September 04: A vigorous shortwave trough is forecast to reach the north-central Great Plains by Sunday. This shortwave trough and anomalous low-level moisture are likely to result in another round of heavy rainfall (1 to 2 inches, locally more) across parts of the Great Lakes, upper Mississippi Valley, and Midwest on Sunday and Monday. Due to recent heavy rainfall, this region is vulnerable to flash flooding and isolated river flooding. Instability, abundant low-level moisture, and favorable wind shear are predicted to favor severe thunderstorms from the north-central Great Plains east to the Midwest on Sunday. Thunderstorms are expected to continue into Monday across the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, but lower instability may limit the coverage of severe thunderstorms.

An upper-level trough is expected to bring relatively cool temperatures to the northern Rockies during the Labor Day weekend. Maximum temperatures are forecast to average 5 to 10 degrees F below-normal from Sunday through next Tuesday across the northern Rockies. Although minimum temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing across the lower elevations of the northern high Plains, freezing temperatures are expected across the higher elevations of the northern Rockies.

Early next week, a tropical wave originating from the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to enter the southwest Gulf of Mexico where conditions could become more favorable for tropical cyclone development. The GFS model continues to indicate more robust surface low development with this tropical wave than the ECMWF model. Regardless of any tropical cyclone development, this tropical wave along with easterly flow increase the potential for heavy rainfall across south Texas next week.

Occasional rain is forecast to affect central/southern interior Alaska and the Alaskan Panhandle throughout this period, while some snow is expected north of the Brooks Range. Rain and snow amounts are likely to remain below hazardous criteria.

For Friday September 05 - Thursday September 11: The 0Z GFS and 0Z ECMWF ensemble means at 500-hpa indicate a weak trough persisting across the northwestern U.S. with a broad ridge over the east-central U.S. This longwave pattern is expected to yield a continuation of relatively cool temperatures across the northern Rockies and above-normal temperatures from the south-central conus to the East Coast. Although an active pattern is expected across the Midwest and Great Lakes due to the upstream trough, uncertainty on the timing of individual shortwave troughs preclude designation of a heavy rain hazard for these areas at this time.

The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, released on August 28, indicates the percentage of CONUS in severe to exceptional drought decreasing very slightly to 21.55 percent.

Forecaster: Brad Pugh


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.