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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made July 28, 2016

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical Outlooks
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks (Information)

Valid Sunday July 31, 2016 to Thursday August 11, 2016

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT July 28 2016

Synopsis: During week-1, two frontal boundaries are anticipated to impact the lower 48 states: a cold front dropping south across the eastern half of the country and another cold front pushing eastward from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains. Low-level high pressure is expected to dominate southern portions of the U.S. throughout week-1. For week-2 mid-level low pressure is expected build across the Northeast with mid-level high pressure in control further west. Two cold fronts are forecast to influence Alaska during week-1, impacting the interior and northern portions of the state. During week-2 Alaska is favored to experience mid-level high pressure.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Sunday July 31 - Thursday August 04: Heavy rainfall (exceeding 1" in 24 hours) is forecast for southeastern Virginia and the eastern Carolinas on July 31 and August 1 associated with a cold front expected to slowly descend through the region. The region of rainfall indicated on the map is anticipated to shift towards coastal regions for the second day of the event.

Another area of heavy rainfall associated with a cold front is forecast for portions immediately west and north of the Alaska Range on July 31. Antecedent wet conditions could lead to flooding concerns, supporting the hazard delineation on the forecast map despite rainfall amounts generally being below regional hazard levels (2" in 24 hours), but are supported via coordination with NWS Alaska Region and Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center. Flood watches have been issued for the Seward Peninsula and Western Interior of Alaska that currently end prior to day 3, but may be extended into the forecast period. A second cold front is forecast to push through the North Slope of Alaska on July 31-August 1, and while not forecast to bring substantial rainfall, may yield possible high winds (exceeding 25 knots) in advance of, and immediately behind, the frontal passage.

While not displayed on the forecast map, marginal fire weather concerns are forecast by the Storm Prediction Center across portions of the West early in week-1. They suggest dry thunderstorm chances are elevated for portions of the Great Basin and Central Rockies on July 31. Presence of dry fuels is also anticipated along with low relative humidity, warm temperatures, and somewhat windy conditions for parts of the Great Basin, Northern Intermountain region, and Northern Rockies for July 31-August 2.

For Friday August 05 - Thursday August 11: The 500-hPa pattern at the beginning of week-2 is forecast to feature ridging across the Central CONUS, with the greatest positive height anomalies across the Great Lakes. As the week progresses, dynamical model ensemble guidance supports 500-hPa troughing building across the Northeast and modest amplification a ridge focused over the Rockies and Central CONUS.

Two areas are highlighted for a slight risk of much above-normal temperatures during week-2. The first region is for portions of the Northeast and New England on August 5th, where the GEFS probabilistic extremes tool indicates at least a 20% chance of exceeding the 85th percentile of climatological maximum temperatures. The second area is adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico and up the eastern seaboard through the Carolinas for August 5-8. The GEFS probabilistic extreme guidance supports similar circumstances for this warmth relative to the former region. GEFS, European Ensemble, and NAEFS guidance also indicate this portion of the Southeast as the most likely CONUS area to experience above-normal temperatures during the 6-10 day period.

Two easterly waves near 10N-20W and 12N-35W bear continued monitoring for tropical cyclogenesis throughout the two week forecast period. Currently the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives these systems a 40% and 30% chance respectively of forming a tropical cyclone through August 2. GEFS guidance has difficulty today tracking these systems beyond the Lesser Antilles, however some CFS members track the more eastern disturbance through Hispaniola in week-2. Dynamical model guidance has trended weaker relative to yesterday in regards to the easternmost system's forecast intensity, with unfavorable environmental conditions expected across the Central Tropical Atlantic. Even if these systems do not impact U.S. interests as tropical cyclones, they may still bring heavy rain to Puerto Rico. Additional information on these systems are available through the NHC (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov) or Global Tropical Hazards Outlook (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php).

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), released on July 28, severe, or greater intensity drought covers 5.97 percent of the U.S. Drought Monitor areas (including Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico). This is a nearly three-tenths of a percent increase compared to the prior week. This increase is due to an expansion of short-term severe drought across the eastern CONUS, primarily across the Lower-Mississippi Valley.

Forecaster: Daniel Harnos

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Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.