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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made June 24, 2016

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
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Categorical Outlooks
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks (Description)

Valid Monday June 27, 2016 to Friday July 08, 2016

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT June 24 2016

Synopsis: At the beginning of the Outlook period, a cold front is predicted over the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes region. This reinforcing shot of cooler, drier air is expected to advance eastward and southward during the ensuing few days. By the middle of next week, the front is forecast to extend southward from a low pressure center near Maine to the Carolinas, gradually curving westward and northwestward across the Gulf Coast states, and the southern and central Plains, before stalling. This front is expected to play some role in nearly all of the hazards noted on the map east of the Continental Divide. Weak low pressure at the surface is anticipated over the Gulf of Alaska and northern mainland Alaska during the 3 to 7 day period.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Monday June 27 - Friday July 01: A reinforcing shot of cooler, drier air is predicted to move across much of the central and eastern CONUS during this period. By the middle of next week, the leading edge of this cooler air mass is forecast to approach the East Coast, with the southern portion of this air mass reaching the deep South before stalling. From here, the cold front is predicted to stretch northwestward across the southern and central Plains. During this period, three areas of heavy rain (generally 1-2 inches, locally greater amounts possible in thunderstorm activity) are anticipated, in relation to the movement of this cold front. The first area of heavy rain is predicted across central portions of Nebraska and adjacent South Dakota (June 27-28), with the second area being the lower Missouri River Valley (June 29-30). The third area of predicted heavy rain is over northern New England, from June 27-28. Though isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to accompany the cold front as it progresses across the eastern and southern CONUS, no larger-scale, organized areas of severe weather are delineated on the map at this time.

Excessive heat (daily maximum heat index values predicted to be in excess of 105 degrees F) is a concern across much of the Gulf Coast region and Lower Mississippi Valley from June 27-28, associated with the expected presence of the subtropical ridge, and the forecasted approach of the cold front noted earlier. Excessive heat is also projected for the lower elevations of the desert Southwest during the 3-7 day period, where heat index values may exceed 110 degrees F. From much of the northern and central Intermountain region eastward to near the Idaho/Wyoming border, including a southwestern extension into the Central Valley of California, temperatures are favored to be much above-normal (by 12-16 degrees) from June 27-July 1, in association with an amplifying ridge anticipated over the West.

The high-based thunderstorms that have recently affected parts of the Southwest are consistent with the early stages of typical Monsoon evolution. As the lower atmosphere becomes increasingly moist, rain is gradually able to reach the ground, and increase in intensity. The latest GFS and ECMWF deterministic model runs predict increasing amounts of precipitation in Arizona and New Mexico, resulting from the predicted availability of deeper moisture. The next stage in typical monsoonal evolution normally involves even deeper moisture moving into the Southwest, often associated with a Gulf surge or a backdoor cold front, and the ensuing development of heavy rainfall.

Weak areas of low surface pressure are predicted to be over the Gulf of Alaska, and the northern mainland of Alaska. No hazards are expected at this time.

For Saturday July 02 - Friday July 08: The Probabilistic Extremes Outlook (PEO) tool favors a slight risk of much above-normal temperatures for most of California and the Great Basin, much of the northern and central Rockies, and the northern Great Plains, July 2-6. A moderate risk of much above-normal temperatures is indicated for eastern portions of both Washington and Oregon, Idaho, and most of Montana, July 2-3. These slight and moderate risk areas depict where maximum temperature values are expected to exceed the 85th percentile of the climatological temperature distribution.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), valid on June 21, severe, or greater intensity, drought covers 4.24 percent of the U.S. Drought Monitor areas (including Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico), up slightly from 4.00 percent on June 14.

Forecaster: Anthony Artusa


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.