Valid Friday October 09, 2015 to Tuesday October 20, 2015
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EDT October 06 2015Synopsis
: An upper-level area of low pressure
is forecast to slowly drift westward across northwestern Mexico and off the
coast of Baja California during the 3-7 day period. Back-to-back upper-level
troughs are predicted to move across the eastern half of the contiguous U.S.
during the same period. By early next week, fast west-to-east flow is
anticipated from the eastern Pacific across the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies to the northern Great Plains. Elsewhere, a strong upper-level trough is
forecast to move slowly eastward across the Gulf of Alaska and adjacent
southern Alaska coast. During the second portion of the Hazards period,
upper-level high pressure is expected over western North America, and
upper-level low pressure is anticipated over eastern North America. In the
north-central Pacific, Hurricane Oho has recently become the seventh hurricane
of the season, though it is forecast to remain well east of Hawaii.
Summary For Friday October 09 - Tuesday October
- Periods of heavy rain in western Washington,
Fri-Mon, Oct 9-12.
- Heavy rain over western Texas, Fri-Sat, Oct 9-10.
- High winds for the Alaska Panhandle, Sat, Oct 10.
- Flooding likely and ongoing in the Carolinas, Fri-Sun, Oct 9-11.
- Severe drought for parts of the western third of the CONUS, Georgia,
Florida, Lower Mississippi Valley, Oklahoma, and Texas.
An upper-level area of low pressure currently over the Southwest and
adjacent northwestern Mexico is expected to drift westward towards Baja
California during this period. Short wave troughs ejecting across the southern
Great Plains ahead of this upper Low, combined with southeasterly low-level
flow are forecast to yield locally heavy rain (3-6 inches) across the middle to
lower Rio Grande Valley. In general, however, most areas are anticipated to
receive 1-2 inches of rain with this event.
There is a marginal risk of severe weather for the mid-Atlantic region this
Friday. No severe weather hazards have been designated on the map at this time.
Fast westerly flow is forecast from the eastern Pacific to the northern
Great Plains. Periods of heavy rain (6-8 inches over a 4-day period) is
predicted for western Washington. Some of this moisture may originate from what
is currently minimal hurricane Oho, now 400 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii
(Tue Oct 6, 5am HST). Hurricane Oho, the seventh hurricane of the season in the
north-central Pacific, is moving farther away from Hawaii and is not predicted
to have any significant impact on the islands, other than perhaps high surf.
Flooding is forecast to continue across the Carolinas. Please consult the
latest river stage information from the Southeast River Forecast Center at
Air of Pacific origin (which is expected to move across the Pacific
Northwest, northern Rockies, and northern Plains) will likely result in
temperatures well above-normal (by 10-20 degrees). For example, Bismarck, North
Dakota, is predicted to be 20 degrees above-normal (where the normal high
temperature is 60 degrees F) on Sunday, October 11th. Though this is considered
a bit warm, it hardly qualifies as a hazard.
Warm, dry conditions (associated with an upper-level ridge) are expected
across southern California, but the predicted low wind speeds are not conducive
to generating critical wildfire conditions.
A deep trough and its associated short waves over the Gulf of Alaska are
anticipated to bring periods of rain and a brief period of high winds to the
central and southern Panhandle on October 10th. Rainfall amounts appear to be
below hazardous thresholds at this time. For Wednesday October 14 -
Tuesday October 20:
In general, the predicted mid-tropospheric height
pattern for week 2 favors a weak ridge in western North America, and a weak
trough in eastern North America. The anticipated pattern favors the delivery of
relatively mild Pacific air across practically the entire CONUS during this
time. Other than long-term drought, no specific hazards can be confidently
predicted at this time.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor map, issued on October 1, the
coverage of severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4) increased very slightly
from 19.79 to 20.09 percent across the contiguous U.S. since the previous
Forecaster: Anthony Artusa
Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.