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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made October 06, 2015

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo HazardsNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Friday October 09, 2015 to Tuesday October 20, 2015

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT October 06 2015

Synopsis: An upper-level area of low pressure is forecast to slowly drift westward across northwestern Mexico and off the coast of Baja California during the 3-7 day period. Back-to-back upper-level troughs are predicted to move across the eastern half of the contiguous U.S. during the same period. By early next week, fast west-to-east flow is anticipated from the eastern Pacific across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies to the northern Great Plains. Elsewhere, a strong upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the Gulf of Alaska and adjacent southern Alaska coast. During the second portion of the Hazards period, upper-level high pressure is expected over western North America, and upper-level low pressure is anticipated over eastern North America. In the north-central Pacific, Hurricane Oho has recently become the seventh hurricane of the season, though it is forecast to remain well east of Hawaii.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Friday October 09 - Tuesday October 13: An upper-level area of low pressure currently over the Southwest and adjacent northwestern Mexico is expected to drift westward towards Baja California during this period. Short wave troughs ejecting across the southern Great Plains ahead of this upper Low, combined with southeasterly low-level flow are forecast to yield locally heavy rain (3-6 inches) across the middle to lower Rio Grande Valley. In general, however, most areas are anticipated to receive 1-2 inches of rain with this event.

There is a marginal risk of severe weather for the mid-Atlantic region this Friday. No severe weather hazards have been designated on the map at this time.

Fast westerly flow is forecast from the eastern Pacific to the northern Great Plains. Periods of heavy rain (6-8 inches over a 4-day period) is predicted for western Washington. Some of this moisture may originate from what is currently minimal hurricane Oho, now 400 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii (Tue Oct 6, 5am HST). Hurricane Oho, the seventh hurricane of the season in the north-central Pacific, is moving farther away from Hawaii and is not predicted to have any significant impact on the islands, other than perhaps high surf.

Flooding is forecast to continue across the Carolinas. Please consult the latest river stage information from the Southeast River Forecast Center at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc

Air of Pacific origin (which is expected to move across the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and northern Plains) will likely result in temperatures well above-normal (by 10-20 degrees). For example, Bismarck, North Dakota, is predicted to be 20 degrees above-normal (where the normal high temperature is 60 degrees F) on Sunday, October 11th. Though this is considered a bit warm, it hardly qualifies as a hazard.

Warm, dry conditions (associated with an upper-level ridge) are expected across southern California, but the predicted low wind speeds are not conducive to generating critical wildfire conditions.

A deep trough and its associated short waves over the Gulf of Alaska are anticipated to bring periods of rain and a brief period of high winds to the central and southern Panhandle on October 10th. Rainfall amounts appear to be below hazardous thresholds at this time.

For Wednesday October 14 - Tuesday October 20: In general, the predicted mid-tropospheric height pattern for week 2 favors a weak ridge in western North America, and a weak trough in eastern North America. The anticipated pattern favors the delivery of relatively mild Pacific air across practically the entire CONUS during this time. Other than long-term drought, no specific hazards can be confidently predicted at this time.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor map, issued on October 1, the coverage of severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4) increased very slightly from 19.79 to 20.09 percent across the contiguous U.S. since the previous week.

Forecaster: Anthony Artusa


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.