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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made May 29, 2015

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo HazardsNo HazardsNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Monday June 01, 2015 to Friday June 12, 2015

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT May 29 2015

Synopsis: At the start of the period, a frontal system is expected to be stalled over the southeastern U.S. before moving slowly offshore. Moist easterly flow is expected over parts of central and southern Florida. An area of low pressure is forecast to move slowly across the northern Rockies to the Northern Plains. A cold front is forecast to cross the Brooks Range of Alaska by Jun 1. An area of disturbed weather south of the Mexican coast is forecast to track towards the west-northwest.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Monday June 01 - Friday June 05: At the start of the period a frontal system is forecast to stretch from off the northeast coast southwestward to the Mid-atlantic and Tennessee and Lower Mississippi valleys. As the front moves slowly southeastward it is expected to act as a focusing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) is expected for parts of the Mid-Atlantic Jun 1. Thunderstorms are likely during the period over this region but model uncertainty precludes the specification of a severe weather hazard at the current time. South of the front, moist easterly flow is expected to get established over Florida Jun 3-4. This, in combination with a weak easterly wave could bring heavy rain to southern Florida but model uncertainty is large and a hazard shape is not currently specified. Isolated pockets of heavy rain are also possible along parts of the central Gulf coast but exact locations are too difficult to delineate at the present time.

Low pressure moving across the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains leads to heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) for parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Jun 3. Thunderstorms are expected for parts of these regions but model uncertainty precludes the specification of a severe weather hazard shape at the current time.

In the eastern interior of Alaska, a cold front is expected to move across the Brooks Range and bring cooler conditions north of the Alaska Range. Windy, dry conditions lead to critical wildfire conditions north of the Alaska Range Jun 1, and south of the Alaska Range Jun 1-Jun 5.

Numerous areas of possible, likely, imminent, and occurring flooding are indicated over the central and west-central portions of the CONUS, with all the heavy rain received in recent days and weeks. To obtain the very latest, detailed information on the status of streams and rivers across the U.S., please consult the River Forecast Center (RFC) homepage at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/rfc/rfc.php.

For Saturday June 06 - Friday June 12: The expected mid-tropospheric flow pattern for Week-2 features a low amplitude flow pattern with weak troughs near the west coast and Ohio Valley, and a weak ridge over the west-central CONUS. Above normal temperatures are anticipated over much of the eastern and western CONUS. Wetter than normal conditions are anticipated for much of the central and eastern CONUS.

The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, released May 28th, indicates a decrease (from 15.16 to 14.20) in the percentage of the CONUS in severe to exceptional drought (D2-D4). This represents the smallest areal coverage of D2-D4 since March 2011.

Forecaster: Randy Schechter


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.