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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made October 23, 2018

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Probabilistic Days 8-14
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Categorical Outlooks
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks (Information)

Valid Friday October 26, 2018 to Tuesday November 06, 2018

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT October 23 2018

Synopsis: Upper-level low pressure is forecast to dominate the eastern U.S. during the 3-7 day period, before weakening in Week-2 and being replaced by high pressure. A strong coastal low moving up the Atlantic coast is expected to impact the Eastern Seaboard through the upcoming weekend. For Week-2, models indicate that an upper-level trough is likely to build in the central U.S., leading to a frontal boundary setting up over the southern Plains. Several surface low pressure systems are forecast to impact southeast Alaska through the next two weeks.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Friday October 26 - Tuesday October 30: An upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the eastern U.S. throughout the 3-7 day period. As mentioned in yesterday's forecast, a coastal low is expected to form along the Gulf coast prior to the period from the remnants of Hurricane Willa currently in the Eastern Pacific. This low is expected to move across the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia and move northward along the Atlantic coast through the weekend. Widespread rainfall rates of 1 inch in 24 hours are forecast for the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Oct 26-27, with localized rates of up to 3 inches likely. Model guidance indicates a better consensus on the track today; the GFS deterministic now keeps the system closer to the coast through New England, falling more in line with what the ECMWF has been predicting. With this track, heavy rain and high winds are likely for the Northeast through the weekend, with rainfall rates of 1-3 inches forecast and sustained winds of 35 knots along the coast. Prior to the low moving through, widespread high pressure over the Northeast will cause colder air to move into the region toward the end of the week, so as the storm system moves into the Northeast, snow showers are also possible, especially at higher elevations. In the wake of the coastal low, cold air advection is forecast over the eastern CONUS. Daytime maximum high temperatures are likely to be anonymously colder the climatological normal; however, the minimum temperatures anomalies are not expected to exceed -4 degrees F, which is below hazardous criteria.

For the western CONUS, an upper-level ridge is forecast to build early in the period. Model guidance indicates a shortwave trough is likely to move onshore over the Pacific Northwest next Monday. A surface low pressure system, supported by this trough, is likely to bring unsettled weather to western Washington and northern Oregon. Heavy rain is expected for the highlighted region, 1-2 inches per 24 hours, Oct 28.

An upper-level trough is forecast to deepen in the Gulf of Alaska at the start of the period, and then weaken through the end of Week-1. With the deepening trough, an anomalously strong surface low is expected to develop in the Gulf of Alaska and is forecast to track from the Panhandle northwestward toward the south coast. As the system shifts closer to land on and tracks northward on Friday, heavy precipitation is expected for parts of southeastern Alaska. Another storm system is expected move over the southern half of the Panhandle on Saturday, Oct 27, causing heavy precipitation for the region.

For Wednesday October 31 - Tuesday November 06: The amplified trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to remain through the start of Week-2, before being replaced by weak upper-level high pressure. Temperatures may fall below the 15th percentile for parts of the Eastern seaboard for the first day of the period, before the trough weakens and shifts off the coast. A slight risk for much below normal temperatures has been forecast along the East Coast at the start of Week-2, Oct 31.

Model guidance forecasts that another upper-level trough is likely to develop and amplify across the central and western CONUS toward mid-period. This upper-level movement is likely to support cyclogenesis in the central U.S., with forecasts indicating a front is likely to set up along the central and southern Plains. Model guidance from the GEFS and ECMWF show better consensus on the timing of this frontal boundary establishing in comparison with yesterday's runs. A slight risk for heavy rain is forecast for the parts of the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, Oct 31-Nov 1. The probabilistic extremes tool for both models predicate a 40% chance of exceeding 1 inch for the event. In addition, the pattern supports a risk of severe weather in the warm sector of the front and upslope snow in the Colorado Rockies.

At the start of Week-2, an upper-level ridge is forecast to build in the Gulf of Alaska. This ridge is likely to quiet the active storm track for the start of Week-2, but as it weakens and shifts eastward, model guidance indicates the possibility of several surface lows moving through southeastern Alaska. A slight risk for heavy precipitation has been forecast through the end of period since with the active storm track, bouts of heavy rainfall or snow at higher elevations are likely, Nov 2-6. Much of the southern Panhandle currently remains in a severe drought, and though these periods of precipitation will be beneficial, the short duration of the events are not likely to cause a drastic improvement in this classification.

The U.S. Drought Monitor, valid October 16, indicates a decrease in severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4) coverage from 14.4 to 13.51 percent during the past week. Continued improvement occurred across northeast Kansas, Missouri, Texas, and Arizona.

Forecaster: Christina Maurin

$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.

Resources

Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool

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