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Climate Prediction Center
 Days 3-7Days 8-14
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Day 3-7 OutlookDay 8-14 Outlook

Valid Friday, July 25, 2014 to Tuesday, August 05, 2014

Summary of Forecasts and Hazards

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT July 22 2014

Synopsis: At the beginning of the period, an area of upper-level high pressure is forecast to dominate the south-central and southwestern U.S. Surface low pressure is anticpated to move across the Gulf of Alaska towards the Alaska Panhandle. Strong upper-level high pressure is forecast to build over the northwest U.S. by the end of the week 1/start of the week 2 period, while upper-level low pressure is predicted to dominate much of the central and eastern U.S. Upper-level low pressure is forecast to persist across most of Alaska during the remainder of the period, although upper-level high pressure is expected to build over the Aleutians.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Friday July 25 - Tuesday July 29: An upper-level trough and frontal system are expected to bring unsettled weather to much of the eastern CONUS during the period. Areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the region, but model uncertainty precludes the specification of related hazard areas at the current time.

A subtropical ridge is likely to strengthen across the South-central CONUS and bring much above normal temperatures to parts of the central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley Fri-Sat. Maximum temperatures are forecast to exceed 100 degrees F across parts of the region.

A ridge is forecast to amplify over the northwest conus by late in the period. This is expected to lead to much above normal temperatures for parts of the Northern Intermountain West and Northern Rockies Sun-Tue. Temperatures in the region are expected to reach 95-100 degrees F. This is of particular concern since numerous wildfires are burning across the Pacific Northwest and Idaho. Smoke from these wildfires is likely to reduce air quality.

Southern and Central Wyoming will likely experience continued dry and breezy conditions through Friday leading to elevated fire weather conditions. However, due to low confidence, a critcal fire weather hazard is not designated at this time.

Flooding is expected to persist along the Souris River in North Dakota.

An upper-level trough is forecast to result in an active pattern across mainland Alaska. Surface low pressure anticipated to move across the Gulf of Alaska towards the Alaska Panhandle is expected to lead to heavy rain for parts of the Alaska Panhandle Fri-Sat. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible.

Tropical activity over the eastern Pacific will need to be monitored for possible impacts over Hawaii.

Late in the period, monsoonal moisture impinging on a frontal system expected over the south-central conus could lead to heavy rain over portions of the central and southern High Plains but model uncertainty precludes specifying a related hazard shape at the current time.

For Wednesday July 30 - Tuesday August 05: Early in the period, upper level ridging is forecast to prolong much above normal temperatures for parts of the Northern Intermountain West, and Northern Rockies.

Based on the latest Drought Monitor valid on July 15, the coverage of severe to exceptional drought across the continental U.S. decreased from 25 to 24 percent during the past week.

Forecaster: Randy Schechter


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Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.