Valid Monday March 30, 2015 to Friday April 10, 2015
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EDT March 27 2015Synopsis
: At the start of the period, cold
surface high pressure is expected over the eastern lower 48 states. Surface low
pressure is forecast to move along the central and eastern U.S./Canadian border
as its associated cold front progresses across the central and eastern U.S. A
frontal system is anticipated to approach the northwestern part of the nation.
Surface low pressure is forecast near the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska. By
mid-period, another area of low pressure is expected to cross the Great Lakes.
Detailed Summary For Monday March 30
- Friday April 03:
- High winds for parts of the northeast,
Mon-Tue, Mar 30-31.
- High winds from eastern Montana to the Great Lakes, Wed-Fri, Apr 1-3/
- Flooding ongoing for small portions of eastern Texas and western Tennessee.
- Severe drought for the Central and Southern Great Plains, Southwest, Great
Basin, California, the Pacific Northwest, and southern Florida.
This forecast period is expected to begin with low
pressure moving eastward across southeastern Canada. While no precipitation
hazards are expected with this system, it is predicted to have a strong
pressure gradient around its center, leading to high winds for portions of the
mid-Atlantic and New England on the 30th and 31st.
In the Pacific Northwest, a system is expected to move onshore spreading
rain and high elevation snow to the coastal ranges of Washington State and the
Bitterroot Mountains in Idaho. While this precipitation is forecast to be
significant, it is not expected to reach hazardous criteria. As the low
pressure moves to the lee of the Rockies, it is predicted to strengthen,
bringing high winds from the eastern Montana to the Great Lakes from the 1st
through the 3rd. Also, localized heavy rain and severe weather is possible
almost everywhere east of the Mississippi River in advance of the storm's cold
Upper-level energy that is expected to move from the eastern Pacific into
the Southwest and then Texas, is forecast to help focus heavy precipitation
along the southern edge of the cold front in Texas on the 1st and 2nd. At this
time, there is no hazard designated due to uncertainty in QPF amounts, but many
model solutions give heavy rain (at least 1 inch in 24 hours) for parts of
eastern Texas, and Louisiana. For Saturday April 04 - Friday
Numerical model solutions are calling for the pattern at the
beginning of this period to be mostly zonal over the CONUS, before hinting at
the development of an upper-level trough in the west and a ridge in the East.
This pattern would favor below normal temperatures in locations west of the
Rockies, and above normal temperatures east of the Mississippi.
In addition, some models forecast an upper-level low to sit over the Bering
Sea for most of this period. This low supports multiple low pressure systems
impacting the southern and southeastern coasts of the state. If this solution
were to verify, a prolonged period of heavy rain, high winds, and significant
waves is likely for these areas.
The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, valid March 24, indicates a very
slight increase (16.24 to 16.97) in the percentage of land in severe drought
Forecaster: Kenneth Pelman
Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.