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U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made September 01, 2014
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Valid Thursday September 04, 2014 to Monday September 15, 2014
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EDT September 01 2014Synopsis
: Monsoonal flow is expected over
parts of the Southern High Plains during much of the early portion of the
assessment period. A series of areas of low pressure are forecast to move
across the Gulf of Alaska and southern Alaska leading to unsettled weather for
the Alaska Panhandle. Hazards
Detailed Summary For Thursday
September 04 - Monday September 08:
- Heavy rain for parts of
the Southern High Plains, Fri-Mon, Sep 5-8.
- Heavy rain for parts of the Alaska Panhandle, Thu-Sat, Sep 4-6.
- Flooding possible for parts of west-central Iowa.
- Severe drought for the Central and Southern Great Plains, Southwest,
southern Georgia, Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and California.
Moist monsoonal flow over the
southwestern CONUS is expected to lead to heavy rainfall (1-2 inches in a
24-hour period) for parts of the Southern High Plains Fri-Mon. Localized flash
flooding is possible for parts of the region.
A cold front moving across the eastern CONUS is expected to lead to showers
and thunderstorms for parts of the Mid-Atlantic Sat, but model uncertainty
precludes the specification of a hazard shape at the current time.
Antecedent rainfall leads to possible flooding for parts of west-central
A series of low pressure systems moving across southern Alaska and the Gulf
of Alaska are forecast to cause heavy rain (2-3 inches in a 24-hour period) for
parts of the Alaska Panhandle Thu-Sat. For Tuesday September 09 -
Monday September 15:
A broadly cyclonic flow pattern is forecast over the
northern CONUS while a sub-tropical ridge is anticipated along the Gulf Coast.
Late in the period, the GFS indicates the possibility of a tropical system
moving into the Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche. Model uncertainty prevents the
placement of hazard areas at this time.
The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, released on August 28, indicates the
percentage of CONUS in severe to exceptional drought decreasing very slightly
to 21.55 percent.
Forecaster: Randy Schechter
Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.