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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made September 01, 2014

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo HazardsNo HazardsNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Thursday September 04, 2014 to Monday September 15, 2014

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT September 01 2014

Synopsis: Monsoonal flow is expected over parts of the Southern High Plains during much of the early portion of the assessment period. A series of areas of low pressure are forecast to move across the Gulf of Alaska and southern Alaska leading to unsettled weather for the Alaska Panhandle.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Thursday September 04 - Monday September 08: Moist monsoonal flow over the southwestern CONUS is expected to lead to heavy rainfall (1-2 inches in a 24-hour period) for parts of the Southern High Plains Fri-Mon. Localized flash flooding is possible for parts of the region.

A cold front moving across the eastern CONUS is expected to lead to showers and thunderstorms for parts of the Mid-Atlantic Sat, but model uncertainty precludes the specification of a hazard shape at the current time.

Antecedent rainfall leads to possible flooding for parts of west-central Iowa.

A series of low pressure systems moving across southern Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska are forecast to cause heavy rain (2-3 inches in a 24-hour period) for parts of the Alaska Panhandle Thu-Sat.

For Tuesday September 09 - Monday September 15: A broadly cyclonic flow pattern is forecast over the northern CONUS while a sub-tropical ridge is anticipated along the Gulf Coast. Late in the period, the GFS indicates the possibility of a tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche. Model uncertainty prevents the placement of hazard areas at this time.

The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, released on August 28, indicates the percentage of CONUS in severe to exceptional drought decreasing very slightly to 21.55 percent.

Forecaster: Randy Schechter

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Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.