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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made October 30, 2014

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo HazardsNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Sunday November 02, 2014 to Thursday November 13, 2014

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT October 30 2014

Synopsis: At the start of the period, surface low pressure is forecast to deepen off the New England coast. Cold high pressure over the east-central U.S. is anticipated to build in behind the area of low pressure off the New England coast. An area of surface low pressure and its associated frontal system over the west-central U.S. is expected to move southeastward, with areas of surface low pressure developing along the front. Onshore flow is expected to get reestablished over the Pacific Northwest. Areas of surface low pressure are forecast to move across the Bering Sea, Aleutians, and south coast of Alaska as high pressure builds over the North Slope of Alaska.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Sunday November 02 - Thursday November 06: Low pressure is forecast to deepen off the New England coast on Sun as cold high pressure builds over the east-central and southeast CONUS. This is expected to lead to heavy snow (in excess of 4 inches in 24 hours) for parts of Maine Sun. Heavy snow is possible over additional sections of interior New England but model uncertainty precludes expanding the hazard area. Much below normal temperatures (10-12 degrees F below normal) are anticipated for parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, southern Appalachians, and Southeast Sun-Mon. In addition, high winds (in excess of 30 knots) are expected for parts of the Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and along much of the east coast Sun-Mon.

Low pressure over the Northern Plains leads to heavy snow (in excess of 4 inches in 24 hours) for higher elevations of Central and Western Montana Sun. Areas of low pressure are forecast to form along the frontal system associated with the area of low pressure over the Northern Plains as the front moves southeastward. Moisture being drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico leads to heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) for parts of the Southern and Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley Mon, and for parts of the Southern Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Tue-Wed.

Onshore flow is forecast to get reestablished over the Pacific Northwest leading to heavy precipitation (rainfall in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours at lower elevations, snowfall in excess of 4 inches in 24 hours at higher elevations) Sun-Wed, and high winds (in excess of 30 knots) for coastal sections of the region Mon-Tue.

Areas of surface low pressure are forecast to move across the Bering Sea, Aleutians, and south coast of Alaska as high pressure builds over the the North Slope of Alaska. High winds (in excess of 30 knots) are anticipated for parts of the Aleutians Sun-Mon, and again Wed-Thur. High winds (in excess of 30 knots) are also anticipated for coastal section of western Alaska Wed-Thu. Significant waves (greater than 20 feet) are expected for parts of the Aleutians Wed-Thu. High winds (in excess of 30 knots) are anticipated for the North Slope of Alaska Sun-Tue.

High pressure building over the western CONUS on Mon-Tue leads to downsloping, off-shore flow. High winds are possible for coastal sections of Central and Southern California but model uncertainty precludes the specification of a hazard.

For Friday November 07 - Thursday November 13: A low amplitude, mostly zonal flow pattern is anticipated across most of the CONUS which suggests the air masses over the country will largely be of Pacific origin. No hazard areas can currently reliably be specified.

The most recent Drought Monitor, released October 28, shows a slight decrease in the areal coverage of severe drought, from 18.04% to 18.01%. There is also the largest amount of areal extent without any level of dryness since December 2011.

Forecaster: Randy Schechter

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Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.