Valid Monday May 29, 2017 to Friday June 09, 2017
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EDT May 26 2017Synopsis
: A cold front is forecast to reach the
Gulf Coast region and then stall during the 3-7 day period. Another cold front
is expected to follow on its heels, and to reinforce the first front. This
general boundary is predicted to be the primary focus for showers and
thunderstorms for during the 3-7 day period. A mid-level ridge of high pressure
over the Pacific Northwest early in the Outlook period is forecast to shift
eastward into the northern Great Plains region by the middle of the period,
accompanied by relatively warm surface temperatures. In Alaska, a relatively
quiet weather pattern is anticipated during the 3-7 day period. A low pressure
system over the central Gulf of Alaska is forecast to track towards the
Aleutians, reaching the archipelago by the middle of the Outlook period.
Detailed Summary For
Monday May 29 - Friday June 02:
- Heavy rain for portions of Texas, Mon-Tue, May
- Heavy rain from west-central Texas to southwestern Missouri, Wed-Thu, May
- Much above-normal temperatures for parts of northern California and the
Pacific Northwest, Mon-Tue, May 29-30.
- Flooding occurring, imminent, likely or possible for parts of the
Mississippi Valley, the northern and central Intermountain region, and the
- Severe Drought across parts of the Southeast, Texas, and southern
Reinforcing cold fronts draped across the
Gulf Coast states are expected to bring showers and thunderstorms to portions
of the southern Plains, Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley,
and the Southeast. However, only two areas of hazardous, heavy rainfall are
anticipated. The first predicted area of heavy rainfall is in the southwestern
portion of Texas, where amounts of 1-3 inches are generally expected, but
locally up to 6 inches near Del Rio, on May 29-30. The second predicted area of
heavy rainfall extends from west-central Texas to southwestern Missouri (1-3
inches, May 31-Jun 1).
A mid-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest and northern California is
expected to contribute to well above-normal temperatures across parts of the
region. The highlighted region on the map defines where maximum temperatures
are forecast to range from 12-20 degrees F above normal, and warm to 90-95
degrees F, on May 29-30. These hot temperatures are likely to result in rapid
snow melt, leading to increased runoff and flows along rivers and streams
throughout the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin.
Rainfall, prior to this period, coupled with saturated soils may result in
a renewal of flooding across parts of the Mississippi River Valley. The lower
portion of the Mississippi River Valley is forecast to crest early next week,
but heavy rainfall forecast during the next week could prolong flooding. Please
note that these flood shapes may change fairly frequently; therefore, for the
very latest graphics, we recommend consulting the River Forecast Center (RFC)
website at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/rfc/rfc.php
Late in this period, a brief downslope event is anticipated across eastern
Montana, which is expected to result in daytime temperatures at, or slightly
above, 85 degrees F on Jun 1-2. For Saturday June 03 - Friday
Today's dynamical models generally predict a de-amplified ridge,
with more westerly flow, over the Pacific Northwest, which would tend to reduce
the magnitude of positive temperature anomalies anticipated over the region.
They also forecast a weak, undercutting trough over the central Basin, and a
full-latitude trough over eastern North America.
Uncertainty between model solutions precludes the designation of a heavy
precipitation area over portions of the Lower 48 states during Week-2.
The U.S. Drought Monitor released on May 25th shows D2-D4 drought coverage
over the CONUS now at 1.22%, a slight decrease from 1.38% one week ago. The
only areas of the country that have D2 (or worse) conditions include parts of
the Southeast, the southern tip of Texas, and extreme southeastern
Forecaster: Anthony Artusa
Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.