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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made September 29, 2014

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo HazardsNo HazardsNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Thursday October 02, 2014 to Monday October 13, 2014

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT September 29 2014

Synopsis: A strong cold front is expected to push eastwards from the middle of the country bringing unsettled weather to central and eastern areas of the Lower 48. The western states are predicted to see high pressure and warm, dry conditions, while Alaska is favored to see a more active pattern.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Thursday October 02 - Monday October 06: An amplified upper-level trough is expected to move slowly from the western states to the east coast during this forecast period. As it does, heavy rain and localized severe weather is anticipated in association with the trough's attendant surface cold front in parts of the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valleys into the Ohio Valley. Rainfall totals of 2 inches or more in 24 hours are possible in these locations.

As the trough moves eastward, it is forecast to negatively tilt, creating surface cyclogenesis off the East Coast. With strong flow off the ocean at low and mid levels, ample moisture should be able to move into northern New England. This setup makes heavy rain likely for these areas with totals of up to 2 inches possible in 24 hours.

Strong winds are possible on the backside of this system, although at this time, the wind speeds are not forecast to reach hazardous criteria.

Upstream of this trough, upper-level ridging is predicted for the west coast, with surface high pressure moving into the Four Corners region. This setup favors strong downslope winds for most of California. These winds are forecast to increase the daytime maximum temperatures into the low 90s with isolated locales seeing higher values. However, the forecast temperature anomalies do not warrant a hazard at this time. Despite the combination of warm temperatures, gusty winds, and dry soils, no enhanced risk of wildfires is indicated due to uncertainty in the strength of these anticipated downslope winds.

In the northern Pacific, a very strong storm is forecast to move south of the Aleutians and impact the Alaskan panhandle and west coast of Canada. Heavy rainfall of at least 5 inches is possible, and with recent heavy rains, large mudslides are a significant possibility.

For Tuesday October 07 - Monday October 13: Tropical Storm Phanfone is expected to intensify into a hurricane and come very close to Japan before recurving out to sea. Most numerical models indicate this recurvature will cause an amplification of the downstream upper-level pattern, increasing the chances of a deep trough somewhere over the CONUS allowing anomalously cold air to enter the CONUS. Interestingly, the ECMWF model forecasts Phanfome to be a much weaker storm and correspondingly has a more zonal forecast for the 8-14 day period.

The U.S. Drought Monitor, valid on September 23, indicates that the percentage of the CONUS in severe to exceptional drought decreased to below 19 percent.

Forecaster: Kenneth Pelman


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.