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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made April 27, 2015

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo HazardsNo HazardsNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Thursday April 30, 2015 to Monday May 11, 2015

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT April 27 2015

Synopsis: At the beginning of the outlook period, a low-pressure system is forecast over the Carolina Coast, with a projected northeastward track. After that system moves out, high pressure is forecast over much of the lower 48 states for the ensuing 2-3 days. A weak low pressure system is forecast to develop over the northern Great Plains early next week. Through early next week, most of Alaska is likely to experience seasonable weather as low-pressure near the Aleutians is not expected to be particularly intense. Forecasts for next week indicate a more active pattern across the Southwest and Great Plains.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Thursday April 30 - Monday May 04: A moderate strength low-pressure system is forecast to be over the Carolinas at the start of the outlook period. Heavy rains (1-2 inches) are likely along and just north of the track of the low-pressure system. GFS-based forecasts are slower in propagating the low-pressure system, and accordingly produce more rains from the DelMarVa to the Carolinas. If the low pressure system tracks closer to the coast, rains could extend into the weekend across portions of the northeast. Additionally, with a more westward track, high winds and coastal flooding become more likely for New England and portions of Long Island.

Flooding is likely over Southeast Texas, along the Guadalupe River. Recent heavy rains have dramatically increased runoff. Flooding in central Mississippi is likely to abate before the outlook period, but any rain between now the start of the valid period would likely exacerbate and prolong the flooding.

A low-pressure system is forecast develop over the northern Great Plains by the beginning of next week. As the system deepens, winds are likely to approach critical fire weather thresholds, but uncertainty in the relative humidity values and wind speeds preclude the designation of a hazard at this time.

For Tuesday May 05 - Monday May 11: The overall pattern for next week is likely to feature a trough near the Aleutians and a trough over the western half of the CONUS, with ridging from the Great Plains to the east coast. That pattern favors above median rains for much of the lower 48 states. Mean troughing favors above median precipitation for southern Alaska.

Early next week, some models are indicating a shortwave trough moving through the pattern over the Southwest. A shortwave moving through the southwest would increase the threat for severe weather over the southern and central Great Plains, as well as increasing the threat of heavy rains over the Great Plains.

The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, valid on April 21, indicates a very slight decrease (to 18.97 from 19.14 ) in the percentage of the CONUS in severe to exceptional drought (D2-D4).

Forecaster: Matthew Rosencrans


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.