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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made August 31, 2015

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo HazardsNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Thursday September 03, 2015 to Monday September 14, 2015

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT August 31 2015

Synopsis: A cold front is predicted to move southward and eastward across the lower 48 states, originally stretching from the Northern Plains to Northern California at the beginning of the period, to the Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains by next Monday. Surface high pressure is expected to build across most of the country, excluding this front. A surface low is anticipated to develop along the South Coast of Alaska, potentially bringing unsettled weather to parts of the South Coast.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Thursday September 03 - Monday September 07: A cold front, originally stretching from the Northern Plains to northern California at the beginning of the period, is predicted to traverse the CONUS, reaching the Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains by next Monday. Passage of this cold front may bring heavy rain to parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley next Saturday. Rainfall totals may reach 1.5 inches or greater in a 24-hour period in this area.

A surface low is forecast to develop over the South Coast of Alaska from Friday until Sunday, potentially bringing heavy rain to central parts of the South Coast, mainly over Kodiak Island, the Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William Sound. This area may receive 1.5 inches of rainfall or greater in a 24-hour period. Because of the small area and potential for rain amounts to not reach the heavy rainfall criteria, a specific area is not highlighted at this time.

As of 1pm EST, a tropical disturbance currently in the eastern Pacific has a 90% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 5 days. This storm may approach Baja California, bringing moisture and resultant localized heavy rain to parts of the Southwest by the end of week into the weekend. There is too much uncertainty regarding this feature to determine any specific locations of associated heavy rainfall at this time. Updated forecasts regarding the storm track are available at the National Hurricane Center's website at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Parts of western Florida may experience localized river flooding at the beginning of the period, associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Erika.

For Tuesday September 08 - Monday September 14: An amplified upper-level ridge is anticipated to develop over South-central CONUS at the beginning of the week-2 period. This pattern favors a slight chance of much above normal maximum temperatures for eastern parts of Texas. Some areas may reach 95 degrees F or greater.

Surface lows over the Rockies may lead to localized areas of freezing temperatures across parts of the Northern and Central Rockies at the beginning of week-2. Surface high pressure is expected to build from central Canada southward into the Northern and Central Great Plains on Tuesday, September 8, potentially leading to cooler than normal temperatures in this area. The GEFS Reforecast Tool indicates a potential for these areas reaching temperatures less than or equal to the 15th percentile compared to climatology. However, temperatures are not expected to reach freezing levels at this time. This surface high is predicted to shift eastward to the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, September 9, shifting the focus of colder temperatures to the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, and Central Plains. The only area that is also anticipated to have temperatures reaching 40 degrees F is in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Due to the small spatial region expected to have temperatures conducive to frost and the short-lived nature of this pattern, a much below normal temperature area is not identified at this time.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor map, valid on August 25, the coverage of severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4) decreased from 18.21 to 18.07 percent across the contiguous U.S. since the previous week.

Forecaster: Melissa Ou

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Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.