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HOME > Expert Assessments > East Pacific Hurricane Outlook > East Pacific Hurricane Outlook Archive >2006 East Pacific Hurricane Outlook
 
NOAA PRESS RELEASE
 
NOAA: 2006 Tropical Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Outlook

Issued: 22 May 2006

Realtime monitoring of tropical East Pacific conditions can be obtained here
Realtime monitoring of tropical Atlantic conditions can be obtained here

 
 
SUMMARY

NOAA scientists are forecasting an 80% probability of a below normal tropical eastern North Pacific hurricane season during 2006, a 15% probability of a near-normal season, and only a 5% probability of an above-normal season. This hurricane outlook is made jointly by the scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), National Hurricane Center (NHC), and the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). See Background Information for NOAA’s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

NOAA’s 2006 outlook for the tropical eastern North Pacific hurricane season calls for 12-16 tropical storms (average is 15-16), with 6-8 becoming hurricanes (average is 9), and 1-3 becoming major hurricanes (average is 4-5). This outlook reflects the ongoing multi-decadal climate signal that has been acting to suppress East Pacific hurricane activity since 1995, combined with the expectation of ENSO neutral conditions during much of the season.

This is NOAA’s second year of issuing an operational outlook for the eastern North Pacific hurricane region, which covers the tropical eastern North Pacific east of 140oW. NOAA had earlier issued Experimental outlooks for both the 2003 and 2004 hurricane seasons. There will be no further updates to this 2006 outlook.

DISCUSSION

1. Expected Activity - 80% Chance Below Normal, 15% Chance Near Normal, 5% chance Above Normal

An important measure of total seasonal activity is NOAA’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the collective strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes during a given hurricane season (see Background Information). The ACE index is also used to define the above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. A value of 85% of the median (Median value is 110) corresponds to the upper boundary for a below-normal season.

For the 2006 tropical eastern North Pacific hurricane season, the ACE index is expected to be 45%-85% of the median. The main climate signals for this prediction include a) the ongoing multi-decadal climate signal that has favored generally below-normal activity since 1995, and b) ENSO-neutral conditions throughout the season. The ongoing trend of reduced eastern North Pacific hurricane activity since 1995 is coincident with generally above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity.

The 2006 East Pacific hurricane season is expected to bring 12-16 tropical storms, with 6-8 becoming hurricanes, and 1-3 becoming major hurricanes {categories 3-4-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale}. This outlook reflects the expectation that many of the named storms will remain relatively weak, and that the hurricanes and major hurricanes will be shorter-lived compared to normal. While it is reasonable to expect this range of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, the total seasonal activity measured by the ACE index can certainly be in the expected range without all three of these criteria being met.

Most tropical storms that form in the eastern North Pacific track westward into open waters, sometimes reaching Hawaii and beyond. On average, one to two tropical storms per season either head northward or recurve toward western Mexico. These storms often bring rainfall to western Mexico, and sometimes also supply moisture to the arid southwestern United States.

CAUTIONARY NOTES

1) It is important to recognize that it is currently not possible to confidently predict at these extended ranges the number or intensity of land falling hurricanes, or whether a particular locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season. Therefore, residents and government agencies coastal and near-coastal regions should always maintain hurricane preparedness efforts regardless of the overall seasonal outlook.

2) Far more damage can be done by one major hurricane hitting a heavily populated area than by several hurricanes hitting sparsely populated areas or, of course, not making landfall at all. Therefore, hurricane-spawned disasters can occur even in years with near-normal or below-normal levels of activity.

NOAA FORECASTERS

Climate Prediction Center
Dr. Muthuvel Chelliah, Physical Scientist, Muthuvel.Chelliah@noaa.gov
Dr. Gerald Bell, Meteorologist, Gerry.Bell@noaa.gov
Dr. Kingtse Mo, Physical Scientist, Kingtse.Mo@noaa.gov

National Hurricane Center
Eric Blake, Meteorologist, Eric.S.Blake@noaa.gov
Dr. Christopher Landsea, Meteorologist, Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Todd Kimberlain, Meteorologist, Todd.Kimberlain@noaa.gov


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Page last modified: May 22, 2006
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