NOAA 2026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook

The 2026 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season outlook is an official product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), and is produced in collaboration with hurricane experts from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC), Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), and the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML). The eastern Pacific hurricane region covers the eastern North Pacific Ocean east of 140°W and north of the equator. The central Pacific covers the North Pacific from 140°W to the International Date Line.

Interpretation of NOAA's eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook
This outlook is general guide to the expected overall activity during the upcoming hurricane season. It is not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast, and it does not imply levels of activity for any particular location.

Preparedness
Hurricane-related disasters can occur during any season, even for years with low overall activity. It only takes one hurricane (or tropical storm) to cause a disaster. It is crucial that residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions prepare for every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) through www.ready.gov (English) and www.listo.gov (Spanish), the NHC, the Small Business Administration, and the American Red Cross all provide important hurricane preparedness information on their web sites.

NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions
NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions. Hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as the hurricane approaches, which are only predictable when the storm is several days of making landfall.

Nature of this Outlook and the "likely" ranges of activity
This outlook is probabilistic, meaning the stated “likely” ranges of activity have a certain likelihood of occurring. The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. Years with similar levels of activity can have dramatically different impacts.

This outlook is based on model forecasts, and on predictions of large-scale factors and conditions that are known to strongly influence seasonal eastern and central Pacific hurricane activity. The outlook also takes into account uncertainties inherent in such outlooks.

Sources of uncertainty in this seasonal outlook

1. Predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, which include El Niño and La Niña events and ENSO-neutral and their specific impacts on eastern Pacific hurricane activity is an ongoing scientific challenge facing scientists today. Such forecasts made during the spring generally have more uncertainty than those made closer to the peak of the East Pacific and Central Pacific hurricane season (July-September: JAS).
2. Predicting the combined impacts associated with the ENSO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) remains a challenge, especially when they have different temporal variability that sometimes results in competing influences.
3. Many combinations of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes can occur for the same general set of environmental conditions. For example, one cannot know with certainty whether a given signal may be associated with several short-lived storms or fewer longer-lived storms with greater intensity.
4. Shorter-term weather patterns that are unpredictable on seasonal time scales can develop and persist for weeks or months, affecting seasonal hurricane activity.

2026 Eastern and Central Pacific Hurricane Outlook Summary

a. Predicted activity in the eastern Pacific

NOAA's 2026 eastern Pacific Hurricane Season outlook an above-normal season is most likely (70% chance). There is a 20% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The eastern Pacific hurricane region covers the eastern North Pacific Ocean east of 140°W and north of the equator.

The 2026 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:

• 15-22 Named Storms
• 9-14 Hurricanes
• 5-9 Major Hurricanes
• Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 120%-190% of the median.

The activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible activity seen in past similar years. The predicted ranges are centered above the 1991-2020 averages of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA’s 2026 central Pacific hurricane season outlook indicates an above-normal season is likely for the central Pacific.

The 2026 outlook calls for a 70% probability for the following range of activity:

• 5-13 combined named storms and tropical depressions.

Near-normal activity for the central Pacific ranges from 4-5 for the combined number of named storms and tropical depressions.

The activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible activity seen in past similar years. The predicted ranges are centered above 1991-2020 average of 4.4 combined named storms and tropical depressions

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially runs from May 15th through November 30th while the central Pacific hurricane season officially runs from June 1st through November 30th. The peak months of the season are July-August-September (JAS).

There will be no further updates to these outlooks.

c. Reasoning behind the outlooks

Two primary factors are expected to contribute to an above-normal 2026 hurricane season across the eastern and central Pacific basins, as follows:

1. The most recent forecast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center indicates El Niño conditions are expected throughout the hurricane season. The ENSO influence on eastern and central Pacific hurricane activity is highly dependent upon the background sea surface temperature (SST) patterns across the eastern tropical Pacific and the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR). For 2026, the tropical Pacific is most likely to experience a moderate or stronger El Niño. The El Niño conditions and lack of strong forcings (SSTs near normal) in the Atlantic are likely to support higher levels of activity in the East Pacific. Strong El Niño conditions are typically associated with dramatically elevated levels of activity in the central Pacific.
2. The latest monthly SST anomalies reflect ENSO-neutral conditions, a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) structure, and North Atlantic SSTs just slightly above-normal for much of the basin. The transition to El Niño will likely shift the projection onto the PDO toward zero or even into positive PDO territory. Historically, this combination has resulted in more activity for the eastern and central Pacific.

DISCUSSION

1. Forecast 2026 activity

1) Eastern Pacific

2) Central Pacific

The 2026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that an above-normal season is likely. The outlook calls for 5-13 tropical cyclones of at least tropical depression strength. ACE is not predicted for the central Pacific as some seasons have near zero activity.

Predictions of the location, number, timing, and intensity of hurricane landfalls are ultimately related to the daily weather patterns which determine storm genesis locations and steering patterns. These patterns are not predictable weeks or months in advance. As a result, it is currently not possible to reliably predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a tropical storm or hurricane this season.

1. El Niño conditions are expected (96%) with a 66% chance of a moderate or stronger event during JAS. A moderate or stronger event is defined by a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value ≥ 1.0°C. Many of the models have monthly Niño 3.4 values in the strong to very strong range by JAS. El Niño conditions lead to more hurricane activity in the eastern and central Pacific.


2. The predicted SST anomaly patterns across the eastern Pacific hurricane region indicate above-average SSTs with near-average SSTs across the Atlantic MDR. SST anomalies in the regions where many eastern Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes tend to form (110°W - 140°W) are much warmer than average (0.5° to 1.5°C). The predicted pattern would not project strongly onto either phase of the PDO, so the overall projection is small. Below-normal vertical wind shear is predicted over the central tropical Pacific, which is historically associated with more activity in both the eastern and central Pacific.

The weekly relative SSTs are currently slightly above average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The Niño 3.4 index has shown a substantial warming trend since December 2025. The wind and outgoing longwave radiation patterns over the central Pacific are also reflecting a breakdown of the atmospheric response to last winter’s forcings of a weak La Niña.

Looking forward, NOAA ENSO outlook from May of 2026 indicates a 96% chance that El Niño conditions will occur during the hurricane season, and a near 0% chance that La Niña conditions could be in place during the peak months (JAS) of the season. The ENSO outlook this year shows higher confidence than at the same point in 2025, and forecasts of El Niño or La Niña events do often have higher confidence than that of ENSO-neutral.

El Niño conditions are associated with large increases in tropical storm and hurricane activity in the eastern and central Pacific. For the eastern Pacific, El Niño years average 13-18 named storms and about 30 more ACE points on average than La Niña years. For the central Pacific, average activity during El Niño years ranges from 2-8 tropical depressions and storms, while during La Niña years typical activity ranges from 0-4.

In addition to year-to-year fluctuations, eastern Pacific hurricane activity exhibits variability on decadal and multi-decadal time scales. Periods of decreased activity (such as 1971-1981 and 1995-2013) are called low-activity eras, and periods of increased activity (such as 1982-1994) are called high-activity eras. The differences in seasonal activity between these two eras for the eastern Pacific are considerable. High-activity eras average about 3 more named storms, 2.4 more hurricanes, 2.4 more major hurricanes, and 60% more ACE, than low-activity eras. During high-activity eras, above-normal seasons occur about three times more frequently (63% of seasons compared to 20%), and below-normal seasons are about four times less frequent (11% compared to 43%).

High- and low-activity eras in the eastern Pacific hurricane region are related to global patterns of SST anomalies that change slowly and last for many years. It is upon these patterns that the inter-annual ENSO signal overlays. One such pattern is the PDO. The PDO spans most of the North Pacific Ocean, and is associated with decadal fluctuations in hurricane activity. The positive (negative) phase of the PDO tends to be associated with high- (low-) activity eras. Another SST pattern is the AMO, and when linked to wind patterns can be more broadly described as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), measured through the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The cold (warm) phase of the AMO increases the likelihood of a high- (low-) activity era. The AMO helps to explain the inverse relationship in activity between the eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins, with a warm AMO/positive AMM favoring increased Atlantic activity and decreased eastern Pacific activity. The AMO is slightly positive this year with a mix of warm and cool SSTs in the North Atlantic.

The 1982-1994 high-activity era was associated with a cold AMO and a positive PDO, which was then followed by a low-activity era from 1995-2013 that featured a warm AMO and negative PDO. The period from 2014-2019 exhibited higher activity and primarily featured a strong positive PDO. Such a short period of years would not define an activity era. The variability in recent years points more to intraseasonal signals overriding the long-term signals. Of the years when the August PDO was negative, approximately 70% of those years had near normal or below normal activity (18 of 24 since 1971). The current value of the PDO is -0.73. The current SST patterns from the tropics to 60°N do not strongly resemble positive nor negative PDO states, as the transition from La Niña to El Niño is underway. In the eastern tropical Pacific, the SST patterns are more similar to high-activity era patterns and a positive PDO, but an area of anomalously warm waters in the mid-latitudes of the Pacific Ocean resembles a negative PDO. On average, the PDO increases by +0.85 from April to September, based on 17 occurrences when JAS is in El Niño. The weak projection onto the PDO and forecasts of a moderate to strong El Niño favor the tropical activity being dominated more by the ENSO status this year.

Many of the models indicated higher than normal values of vertical wind shear off the southern coast of Mexico. Some years, stronger storms develop and intensify near the coast of Mexico, contributing to high overall activity. If the storms develop further south, near the predicted area of relatively low vertical wind shear, the systems could have long tracks and contribute to a very busy season in the eastern Pacific. If the vertical wind shear is higher, further from the coast, it could force more activity toward the central Pacific. El Niño conditions are expected, but could develop slightly later than currently anticipated or with a lower strength. Years with late developing El Niño conditions can still be very busy seasons, 2018 and 2023 demonstrate that in the recent period.

NOAA FORECASTERS

• Matthew Rosencrans, Physical Scientist, Matthew.Rosencrans{at}noaa.gov
• Dr. Hui Wang, Meteorologist; Hui.Wang{at}noaa.gov
• Dr. Daniel Harnos, Meteorologist; Daniel.Harnos{at}noaa.gov
• Lindsey Long, Meteorologist; Lindsey.Long{at}noaa.gov
• Nicholas Novella, Meteorologist; Nicholas.Novella{at}noaa.gov

• Eric Blake, Senior Hurricane Specialist; Eric.S.Blake{at}noaa.gov

• Christopher Brenchley, Meteorologist, christopher.brenchley{at}noaa.gov

• Stanley Goldenberg, Meteorologist; Stanley.Goldenberg{at}noaa.gov