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HOME> Climate & Weather Linkage> El Nino Southern Oscillation

ENSO Strengths

This table shows the forecast probability (%) of Niño-3.4 index exceeding a certain threshold (in degrees Celsius).
For negative thresholds, the table shows the probability (%) of a Niño-3.4 index value that is less than (more negative) that value.
For positive thresholds, the table shows the probability (%) of a Niño-3.4 index value that is greater than (more positive) that value.
This tool supports the official ENSO Diagnostic discussion updated on the 2nd Thursday of each month.
Target ≤ -2.0°C≤ -1.5°C≤ -1.0°C≤ -0.5°C≥ 0.5°C≥ 1.0°C≥ 1.5°C≥ 2.0°C
FMA ~0~0~0~0~10081~0~0
MAM ~0~0~0~0745~0~0
AMJ ~0~0~0314~0~0~0
MJJ ~0~04323~0~0~0
JJA ~0322621~0~0~0
JAS 21341751~0~0~0
ASO 72555821~0~0~0
SON 133463851~0~0~0
OND 173965851~0~0~0
≤ -2.0°C≤ -1.5°C≤ -1.0°C≤ -0.5°C≥ 0.5°C≥ 1.0°C≥ 1.5°C≥ 2.0°C
The values are based on the analysis published in:

L'Heureux, M. L., Tippett, Michael K., Takahashi, Ken, Barnston, Anthony G., Becker, Emily J., Bell, Gerald D., Di Liberto, Tom E., Gottschalck, Jon, Halpert, Michael S., Hu, Zeng-Zhen, Johnson, Nathaniel C., Xue, Yan, and Wang, Wanqiu, 2019: Strength Outlooks for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 165-175, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0126.1.