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HOME> Climate & Weather Linkage> El Nino Southern Oscillation

ENSO Strengths

This table shows the forecast probability (%) of Niño-3.4 index exceeding a certain threshold (in degrees Celsius).
For negative thresholds, the table shows the probability (%) of a Niño-3.4 index value that is less than (more negative) that value.
For positive thresholds, the table shows the probability (%) of a Niño-3.4 index value that is greater than (more positive) that value.
This tool supports the official ENSO Diagnostic discussion updated on the 2nd Thursday of each month.
Target < -1.5°C< -1.0°C< -0.5°C> 0.5°C> 1.0°C> 1.5°C
OND 5099~100~0~0~0
NDJ 5494~100~0~0~0
DJF 448699~0~0~0
JFM 256995~0~0~0
FMA 84184~0~0~0
MAM 21965~0~0~0
AMJ 19432~0~0
MJJ ~063081~0
JJA 1628142~0
< -1.5°C< -1.0°C< -0.5°C> 0.5°C> 1.0°C> 1.5°C
The values are based on the analysis published in:

L'Heureux, M. L., Tippett, Michael K., Takahashi, Ken, Barnston, Anthony G., Becker, Emily J., Bell, Gerald D., Di Liberto, Tom E., Gottschalck, Jon, Halpert, Michael S., Hu, Zeng-Zhen, Johnson, Nathaniel C., Xue, Yan, and Wang, Wanqiu, 2019: Strength Outlooks for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 165-175, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0126.1.