During March 2022, La Niña continued with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the past week, all of the Niño index regions were between -0.7°C and -1.1°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) decreased and were negative the entire month [Fig. 3] due to the expansion of below-average temperatures from the surface to 200 meters depth in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. For the monthly average, low-level easterly wind anomalies prevailed across the western and central Pacific, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies remained over the east-central Pacific. Suppressed convection remained significant around the Date Line and was enhanced over the Philippines and Southeast Asia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continuation of La Niña.

The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere summer [Fig. 6]. This month, the forecaster consensus predicts Niño-3.4 index values to weaken into the summer but remain below the threshold of La Niña (Niño-3.4 values equal to or less than -0.5°C). The change in the consensus forecast to slightly favoring the continuation of La Nina is primarily based on recent model runs from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the persistence of atmosphere-ocean coupling, which remains fairly strong for this time of year. While La Niña is slightly favored through the fall, there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty, given the combined 45-50% chance for ENSO-neutral or El Niño from July-September onwards. In summary, La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (59% chance during June-August 2022), with a 50-55% chance through the fall; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 May 2022.

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