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El Nino Southern Oscillation
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ENSO Strengths
This table shows the forecast probability (%) of Niño-3.4 index exceeding a certain threshold (in degrees Celsius).
For negative thresholds, the table shows the probability (%) of a Niño-3.4 index value that is less than (more negative) that value.
For positive thresholds, the table shows the probability (%) of a Niño-3.4 index value that is greater than (more positive) that value.
This tool supports the official ENSO Diagnostic discussion updated on the 2nd Thursday of each month.
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Target |
< -1.5°C | < -1.0°C | < -0.5°C | > 0.5°C | > 1.0°C | > 1.5°C |
NDJ |
~0 | 59 | ~100 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 |
DJF |
3 | 45 | 95 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 |
JFM |
2 | 28 | 81 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 |
FMA |
1 | 15 | 65 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 |
MAM |
~0 | 9 | 50 | 1 | ~0 | ~0 |
AMJ |
~0 | 5 | 34 | 4 | ~0 | ~0 |
MJJ |
~0 | 4 | 25 | 12 | 1 | ~0 |
JJA |
1 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 4 | ~0 |
JAS |
1 | 6 | 22 | 26 | 8 | 1 |
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< -1.5°C | < -1.0°C | < -0.5°C | > 0.5°C | > 1.0°C | > 1.5°C |
The values are based on the analysis published in:
L'Heureux, M. L., Tippett, Michael K., Takahashi, Ken, Barnston, Anthony G., Becker, Emily J., Bell, Gerald D., Di Liberto, Tom E., Gottschalck, Jon, Halpert, Michael S., Hu, Zeng-Zhen, Johnson, Nathaniel C., Xue, Yan, and Wang, Wanqiu, 2019: Strength Outlooks for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 165-175, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0126.1.
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