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El Nino Southern Oscillation
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ENSO Strengths
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This table shows the forecast probability of Niño-3.4 index exceeding a certain threshold (in degrees Celsius).
For negative thresholds, the table shows the probability of a Niño-3.4 index value that is less than (more negative) that value.
For positive thresholds, the table shows the probability of a Niño-3.4 index value that is greater than (more positive) that value.
This tool supports the official ENSO Diagnostic discussion updated on the 2nd Thursday of each month.
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| Target |
-1.5°C | -1.0°C | -0.5°C | 0.5°C | 1.0°C | 1.5°C |
| OND |
50 | 99 | ~100 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 |
| NDJ |
54 | 94 | ~100 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 |
| DJF |
44 | 86 | 99 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 |
| JFM |
25 | 69 | 95 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 |
| FMA |
8 | 41 | 84 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 |
| MAM |
2 | 19 | 65 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 |
| AMJ |
1 | 9 | 43 | 2 | ~0 | ~0 |
| MJJ |
~0 | 6 | 30 | 8 | 1 | ~0 |
| JJA |
1 | 6 | 28 | 14 | 2 | ~0 |
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-1.5°C | -1.0°C | -0.5°C | 0.5°C | 1.0°C | 1.5°C |
The values are based on the analysis published in:
L'Heureux, M. L., Tippett, Michael K., Takahashi, Ken, Barnston, Anthony G., Becker, Emily J., Bell, Gerald D., Di Liberto, Tom E., Gottschalck, Jon, Halpert, Michael S., Hu, Zeng-Zhen, Johnson, Nathaniel C., Xue, Yan, and Wang, Wanqiu, 2019: Strength Outlooks for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 165-175, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0126.1.
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www.nws.noaa.gov
