|
HOME>
Climate & Weather Linkage>
El Nino Southern Oscillation
|
|
|
ENSO Strengths
This table shows the forecast probability (%) of Niño-3.4 index exceeding a certain threshold (in degrees Celsius).
For negative thresholds, the table shows the probability (%) of a Niño-3.4 index value that is less than (more negative) that value.
For positive thresholds, the table shows the probability (%) of a Niño-3.4 index value that is greater than (more positive) that value.
This tool supports the official ENSO Diagnostic discussion updated on the 2nd Thursday of each month.
|
Target |
< -1.5°C | < -1.0°C | < -0.5°C | > 0.5°C | > 1.0°C | > 1.5°C |
OND |
2 | 58 | 99 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 |
NDJ |
14 | 66 | 97 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 |
DJF |
14 | 56 | 92 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 |
JFM |
8 | 41 | 83 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 |
FMA |
3 | 24 | 69 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 |
MAM |
1 | 10 | 50 | 1 | ~0 | ~0 |
AMJ |
~0 | 5 | 33 | 4 | ~0 | ~0 |
MJJ |
~0 | 4 | 23 | 12 | 1 | ~0 |
JJA |
~0 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 4 | ~0 |
|
< -1.5°C | < -1.0°C | < -0.5°C | > 0.5°C | > 1.0°C | > 1.5°C |
The values are based on the analysis published in:
L'Heureux, M. L., Tippett, Michael K., Takahashi, Ken, Barnston, Anthony G., Becker, Emily J., Bell, Gerald D., Di Liberto, Tom E., Gottschalck, Jon, Halpert, Michael S., Hu, Zeng-Zhen, Johnson, Nathaniel C., Xue, Yan, and Wang, Wanqiu, 2019: Strength Outlooks for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 165-175, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0126.1.
|
|
|