July - September 2006

Latest Seasonal Assessment - The ongoing drought in the Plains states should persist from west Texas northward into Nebraska and Wyoming. The odds for drought relief are smallest over west Texas and western Oklahoma, where the latest seasonal outlook shows a tendency for continued hot, dry weather through September. In contrast, a turn toward a wetter pattern for the last half of June should lead to improving conditions in parts of central and east Texas and eastern Oklahoma, and heavy downpours could bring locally important drought relief. The best odds for lasting improvement in coming months extend from southern and coastal Texas into the central Gulf Coast region. Some drought improvement should visit the northern and central Plains from the Dakotas and eastern Wyoming into parts of Nebraska. Limited improvement is expected in Iowa, with more significant improvement in Missouri. Along the East Coast, the deluge from the remains of Tropical Storm Alberto brought major drought relief to Florida on June 12-13 and to Georgia and the Carolinas on June 13-14. The drought outlook depicts improvement for the remaining drought areas in Florida and the Eastern Seaboard. Turning to the Southwest, where one of the driest winters on record contributed to extreme drought across the region, the upcoming summer rainy season should offer a respite from dry surface conditions and high fire danger, with the best odds for relief extending from southern Arizona northeastward into central New Mexico.