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Monday October 20, 2003
7:15-8:15 Registration
8:15-8:30 Welcome and Opening Remarks
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Dr. Arun Kumar, Deputy Director, Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
Desert Research
Institute
Dr. Kent Hoekman, Director, Atmospheric Sciences Division, Desert
Research Institute
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SESSION 1: REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT OF RECENT CLIMATE VARIABILITY
Chairperson: Wayne Higgins
8:30-9:00 EVOLUTION OF THE RECENT ENSO CYCLE
V. Kousky
9:00-9:30 DID THE EL NIÑO OF 2002-03 BREAK
THE DROUGHT IN COLORADO OR ELSEWHERE IN THE WEST?
Klaus Wolter
9:30-10:00 CLIMATE ANOMALIES AND THE 2003
WILDFIRE SEASON
Beth Hall
10:00-10:30 ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 2003 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
G. Bell and M. Chelliah
SESSION 2:
DROUGHT
Chairperson: Kelly Redmond
11:00-11:30 ON
THE CAUSES OF THE 1930S DUST BOWL
Siegfried Schubert, Max Suarez, and Phillip Pegion
11:30-12:00 THE RECENT 4-YEAR
DROUGHT: GLOBAL WARMING OR LA NIÑA?
Prashant Sardeshmukh and Gilbert Compo
12:00-12:30 GLOBAL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LIFE CYCLES OF TROPICAL DROUGHTS
Bradfield Lyon
1:30-3:00 POSTER SESSION 1:
Chairperson: M. Halpert
SESSION 3: SKILL
OF CLIMATE PREDICTIONS
Chairperson: Ed O’Lenic
3:00-3:30 RECENT
SKILL OF OPERATIONAL SEASONAL FORECASTS
Ed O'Lenic
3:30-4:00 VERIFICATION
OF NCEP SFM SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION DURING 2001-2003
Jae Schemm
4:00-4:30 HIND-CAST
SKILL IN SST PREDICTION IN THE NEW NCEP COUPLED ATMPOSPHERE-OCEAN MODEL
Suranjana Saha, Wanqui Wang, Hua-Lu Pan, Dave Behringer, Sudhir
Nadiga, Shrinivas Moorthi, and Scott Harper
4:30-5:00 A
SUPERIOR ALTERNATIVE TO THE MODIFIED HEIDKE SKILL FOR VERIFICATION OF
CATEGORICAL VERSIONS OF CPC OUTLOOKS
Robert Livezey
6:00 - 8:00 WORKSHOP ICEBREAKER RECEPTION
Tuesday October 21
SESSION 4: WEATHER,
WATER, AND CLIMATE IN THE WESTERN U. S.
Chairperson: Chet Ropelewski
8:00-8:30 LAND
SURFACE MEMORY AND WATER BUDGET OVER THE U. S. WEST COAST STATES AND MONSOON
REGIONS
Yun Fan and Huug van den Dool
8:30-9:00 WESTMAP: THE WESTERN CLIMATE
MAPPING INITIATIVE
Andrew Comrie, Kelly Redmond, and Christopher Daly
9:00-9:30 FLUCTUATIONS IN RAIN VS. SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST
Dan Cayan, Michael Dettinger, Noah Knowles, and Iris Stewart
10:00-10:30 SATELLITE-DERIVED
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER THE WESTERN U. S.: FACT OR FICTION
John Janowiak, Robert Joyce, Pingping Xie, Mingyue Chen, Yelena Yarosh,
and Phil Arkin 10:30-11:00 WINTER
OROGRAPHIC-PRECIPITATION PATTERNS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA - CLIMATIC
UNDERPINNINGS AND HYDROLOGIC CONSEQUENCES
Michael Dettinger, Kelly Redmond, and Daniel Cayan
11:00-11:30 CLIMATIC MODULATIONS OF WATER
DEMAND IN THE CITY OF ALBUQUERQUE
David Gutzler and Joshua Nims
12:30-2:00 POSTER SESSION 2:
Chairperson: Muthu Chelliah
SESSION 5:
MONSOON SYSTEMS
Chairperson: Jae Schemm
2:00-2:30 VARIABILITY IN DAILY RAINFALL
OVER THE NAME TIER 1 DOMAIN AND ASSOCIATED RELATIONSHIPS WITH TRANSIENT
SYNOPTIC FEATURES
Art Douglas and Phillip Englehart
2:30-3:00 RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA MOISTURE SURGES AND PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES
Wayne Higgins, Wei Shi, and Chris Hain
3:00-3:30 CIRCULATION REGIMES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON AND IMPACT ON FORECAST SKILL
Kingtse Mo
3:30-4:00 PREDICTING THE ONSET OF THE
NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON AND PROGRESS TOWARD A MECHANISTIC UNDERSTANDING
David Mitchell, Beth Hall, Miguel Lavin, Dorothea Ivanova, and Kelly
Redmond
4:00-4:30 PREDICTABILITY OF SUMMERTIME NORTH
AMERICAN PRECIPITATION
Gilbert Compo and Prashant Sardeshmukh
4:30-5:00 DIURNAL, INTRASEASONAL, AND
INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
MONSOON SYSTEM
Phil Arkin and Pingping Xie
Wednesday October 22
SESSION 6: DIAGNOSING AND PREDICTING INTRASEASONAL
VARIABILITY
Chairperson: Lisa Goddard
8:00-8:30 SYNOPTIC VIEW OF
THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION/IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION A BREAKING
WAVE
Steven Feldstein, Sukyong Lee, Christian Franzke, and James J. Benedict
8:30-9:00 ON
THE TIME SCALES OF ATMOSPHERIC INDICES
Roland Madden
9:00-9:30 A STUDY OF NORTH AMERICAN
STORMTRACKS: CLIMATOLOGY, VARIABIITY, AND TRENDS
Tim Eichler and Wayne Higgins
9:30-10:00 THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) ON NORTHERN HEMISPHERE HIGH
LATITUDE WINTERTIME SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES
Gabriel Vecchi and Nicholas Bond
SESSION 7: DIAGNOSING AND PREDICTING
INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY
Chairperson: K. Mo
10:30-11:00 RAINFALL IN WESTERN SOUTH
AMERICA: THE TRADITIONAL "EL NIÑO" VERSUS "GLOBAL ENSO"
Chet Ropelewski and Lisa Goddard
11:00-11:30 GLOBAL PATTERNS
OF THE RISK OF SEASONAL EXTREMES RELATED TO ENSO
Robert Webb, John Eischeid, Henry Diaz, Klaus Wolter, Catherine Smith,
and Randall Dole
11:30-12:00 EL NIÑO:
CATASTROPHE OR OPPORTUNITY
Lisa Goddard
1:00-2:30 POSTER SESSION 3
Chairperson: Song Yong
SESSION 7:
DIAGNOSING
AND PREDICTING INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY, continued
Chairperson: Kingtse Mo
2:30-3:00 OPPOSITE
PHASES OF THE ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION AND RELATIONSHIPS WITH INTRASEASONAL TO
INTERANNUAL ACTIVITY IN THE TROPICS DURING THE AUSTRAL SUMMER
Leila Carvalho, Charles Jones, and Tercio Ambrizzi
3:00-3:30 ENSO-LESS TROPICAL SSTS THAT STILL HAVE INTERANNUAL
VARIABILITY
Cecile Penland and Ludmila Matrosova
3:30-4:00 PERSISTENCE
OF MARINE TROPICAL CLIMATE AND ITS IMPLICATION FOR EL NIÑO HISTORICAL
RECONSTRUCTIONS
Alexey Kaplan and Daniel Gombos
4:00-4:30 TRENDS REVISITED
Huug van den Dool
4:30-5:00 SEASONAL
AND INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS OF GLOBAL-SCALE PRECIPITATION AS OBSERVED BY THE
TRMM PRECIPITATION RADAR (PR) AND THE MERGED ANALYSES
Pingping Xie, John Janowiak, Phillip Arkin, and Mingyue Chen
6:00-9:00 WORKSHOP BANQUET
Thursday October 23
SESSION 8:
DIAGNOSING
DECADAL VARIABILITY AND TRENDS
Chairperson: Vern Kousky
8:00-8:30 ENSO-FORCED
DECADAL VARIABILITY IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
Matthew Newman
8:30-9:00 VASCILLATIONS
OF THE TROPICAL AND NORTH PACIFIC CO-RELATION DIAGNOSED IN OBSERVATIONS,
PROXY RECONSTRUCTION, AND IN A COUPLED MODEL
Alexander Gershunov, Michael Evans, Malcolm Hughes, and Herve Douville
9:00-9:30 INTERDECADAL
ANOMALY CORRELATION CHANGE IN AN ENSEMBLE AGCM EXPERIMENT
Tosiyuki Nakaegawa and Masao Kanamitsu
SESSION 9: MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND
PREDICTION
Chairperson: Klaus Wolter
10:00-10:30 PHYSICAL INITIALIZATION FOR THE
REGIONAL SPECTRAL MODEL
Ana Nunes, John Roads, and Masao Kanamitsu
10:30-11:00 DIAGNOSING THE ENSO AND MJO
SIGNAL IN THE NEW NCEP COUPLED ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN MODEL
Wanqiu Wang, Hua-Lu Pan, Suranjana Saha, Dave Behringer, Sudhir Nadiga,
Shrinivas Moorthi, and Scott Harper
11:00-11:30 AN OVERVIEW OF
NCEPS NORTH AMERICAN REGIONAL REANALYSIS
W. Ebisuzaki, F. Mesinger, G. DiMego, E. Kalnay, K. Mithcell, M. Ek, R.
Grumbine, D. Jovic, P. Shafram, and J. Woolen
11:30-12:00 130-YEAR
SIMULATION OF THE PERIOD FROM 1872-2001 BY THE JMA AGCM
Shoji Kusunoki, Keiichi Matsumaru, Toshiyuki Nakaegawa, and Osamu Arakawa
1:00-2:30 POSTER SESSION 4
Chairperson: John Janowiak
SESSION
10: MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND PREDICTION AT THE ARCS
Chairperson: Anjuli Bamzai
2:30-3:00 SEASONAL CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION
CONSORTIUM: AN OVERVIEW
Arun Kumar, Tony Barnston, Lisa Goddard, and Martin Hoerling
3:00-3:30 SEASONAL CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION
CONSORTIUM: STATUS, ANALYSIS OF THE NDJF 2002-03 CLIMATE FORECASTS AND
OBSERVATIONS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U. S.
Tony Barnston, Arun Kumar, Lisa Goddard, and Martin Hoerling
3:30-4:00 IRI/ARCS REGIONAL APPLICATIONS
PROJECT
J. Roads, S. Chen, J. Chen, A. Nunes, D. Lettenmaier, E. Salathe, E.
Miles, H. Juang, J. Han, J. Wang, S. Lord, S. Cocke, T. Larow, J. -H. Qian,
S. Zdbiak, and Andrew Robertson
4:00-4:30 CDEP CONSORTIUM ON OCEAN DATA
ASSIMILATION FOR SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL PREDICTION (ODASI)
Michele Rienecker, Stephen Zebiak, James Kinter, David Behringer, Antonio
Rosati, and Alexey Kaplan
4:30 ADJOURN
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