|
Monday, October 23, 2006
|
| 8:00 am - 8:30 am |
Registration |
|
| 8:30 am - 8:40 am |
Opening Remarks |
Robin Webb, NOAA/ESRL |
| 8:40 am - 8:50 am |
Opening Remarks |
Jim Laver; NOAA/CPC |
| 8:50am - 9:00 am |
Opening Remarks |
Louis Uccellini; NOAA/NCEP |
Session 1: An Assessment of Observed Climate for 2005/2006
Chairperson: Tony Barnston
|
| 9:00 am – 9:30 am |
A Review of Monthly/Seasonal Climate Variability for 2005-2006 |
Vern Kousky; NCEP/CPC |
| 9:30 am – 10:00 am |
A Review 2005-2006 Extreme Events |
Klaus Weickmann; NOAA/ESRL |
| 10:00 am -10:30 am |
Coffee |
Session 2: An Assessment of Climate Predictions for 2005/2006
Chairperson: Klaus Weickmann
|
| 10:30 am -10:50 am |
A Review of 2005 & 2006 Hurricane Season and Forecasts |
Muthuvel Chelliah; NCEP/CPC |
| 10:50 am -11:10 am |
A Review of 2005/2006 US drought monitor and outlook |
Doug LeComte; NCEP/CPC |
| 11:10 am -11:30 am |
A Review of 2005/2006 ENSO Predictions |
Tony Barnston; IRI |
| 11:30 am -11:50 am |
A Review of forecast skill of 2005/2006 US Long-Range Predictions |
Ed O’Lenic; NCEP/CPC |
| 11:50 am 121:10 pm |
A Review of Bureau of Meteorology Forecasts for Australia; |
A. Watkins; National Climate Centre, BoM |
| 12:10 pm -12:30 pm |
Discussion on Forecast Performance |
| 12:30pm -1:30 pm |
Lunch |
Session 3 (CTB Session 1): Improvements in the CFS
Chairperson: Jae Schemm; NOAA/CPC
|
| 1:30 pm - 2:00 pm |
Recent Developments with the new the CFS |
Suru Saha; NCEP/EMC |
| 2:00 pm - 2:30 pm |
The Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) at NCEP |
Dave Behringer; NCEP/EMC |
| 2:30 pm - 3:00 pm |
Initialization of NOAH LSM and its Coupling to CFS |
Ken Mitchell; NCEP/EMC |
| 3:00 pm - 3:30 pm |
Coffee |
| 3:30 pm - 4:00 pm |
NCEP CFS ENSO Characteristics and Impact of Atmsopheric Stochastic Forcing on ENSO |
Xue; NCEP/CPC |
| 4:00 pm - 4:30 pm |
NCEP CFS Model Bias Associated with Marine Stratus Clouds over Southeastern Pacific |
Xie; NCEP/CPC |
| 4:30pm - 5:00 pm |
Diurnal Cycle over the Great Plains in CFS |
Siegfried Schubert; NASA/GMAO |
|
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
|
Session 4 (CTB Session 2): Improvements in the Official Climate Outlooks
Chairperson: Ed O'Lenic; NOAA/CPC
|
| 8:30 am - 8:55 am |
Consolidation of multi method Seasonal Forecasts at CPC |
Huug van den Dool; NOAA/CPC |
| 8:55 am - 9:20 am |
Objective Verification of CPC Forecasts |
Mike Halpert ; NOAA/CPC |
| 9:20 am - 10:50 am |
Coffee & Poster Session 1: NOAA Climate Testbed |
| 10:50 am - 11:15 am |
Estimation and Extrapolation of Climatic Trends for Evaluation and Prediction of Climatic Anomalies |
Robert Livezey; NWS/CSD |
| 11:15 am - 11:40 am |
A Strategy Using Long-range Forecast Products as Input to NOAA’s Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System |
John Schaake; NWS/OD |
| 11:40 am - 12:05 pm |
Firedanger Applications of NCEP's Downscaled CFS Forecasts |
John Roads; SIO |
| 12:05 pm - 12:30 pm |
Development of a tool for Downscaling of Operational Climate Forecasts to Regional and Local Fire Indices |
N. Molders; U. Alaska |
| 12:30 pm - 1:30 pm |
Lunch |
Session 5 (CTB Session 3): Application of Climate Forecast Products and User Requirements
Chairperson:
|
| 1:30 pm - 1:55 pm |
Setting Priorities for Development of New and Improved Climate Products |
J. J. O'Brien; FSU |
| 1:55 pm - 2:20 pm |
Developing Improved Climate Products for Effective Climate Risk Management |
C. Roplewski; IRI |
| 2:20 pm - 2:45 pm |
How to best package climate products for users |
Holly Hartmann; U. Arizona |
| 2:45 pm - 3:15 pm |
Coffee |
| 3:15 pm - 3:40 pm |
Making Climate Products Digestable |
Kelly Redmond; DRI |
| 3:40pm - 4:05 pm |
Assessing the Value of Seasonal Forecasts for the Panama Canal |
Nicholas Graham; SIO |
| 4:05 pm - 4:30 pm |
Climate Services: The Pacific Climate Information System (PaCIS) Approach |
Eileen Shea; U. Hawaii |
| 4:30 pm - 5:30 pm |
Panel Discussion |
|
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
|
Session 6: Detection and Attribution of Climate Variability and Trends
Chairperson: Robin Webb; NOAA/ESRL
|
| 8:30 am - 9:00 am |
Charge to the Attribution Session |
Marty Hoerling; NOAA/ESRL |
| 9:00 am - 9:40 am |
Explaining Changes in Extreme US Climate Events |
Gerry Meehl; NCAR |
| 9:40 am - 10:20 am |
Explaining US Precipitation and Temperature Trends |
Imke Durre; NOAA/NCDC |
| 10:20 am - 10:50 am |
Coffee |
| 10:50 am -11:30 am |
Explaining the Origins of North American Drought |
Richard Seager; LDEO |
| 11:30 am -12:10 pm |
Explaining Recent Increases in Atlantic Hurricane Activity |
Kevin Trenberth; NCAR |
| 12:10 pm - 1:30 pm |
Lunch |
| 1:30 pm - 3:30 pm |
Coffee + Poster Session 2: Detection and Attribution |
| 3:30 pm - 5:30 pm |
Panel Discussion; Panelists: Meehl; Santer; Seager; Trenberth; Hoerling; Schubert; Ingram; Graffin |
| 7:00 pm - 8:30 pm |
Banquet; Speaker: Chet Koblinsky; Director; NOAA Climate Program Office |
|
Thursday, October 26, 2006
|
Session 7: Session 7: Prediction and Predictability of Climate Variability
Chairperson: Randy Dole; NOAA/ESRL
|
| 8:30 am - 9:00 am |
Charge to the Prediction Session |
Huug van den Dool; NOAA/CPC |
| 9:00 am - 9:40 am |
Predictability and Predictions of Week-2 to Monthly |
Tom Hamill; NOAA/ESRL |
| 9:40 am - 10:20 am |
Predictability and Predictions of Seasonal Means |
Lisa Goddard; IRI |
| 10:20 am - 10:50 am |
Coffee |
| 10:50 am -11:30 am |
Predictability and Predictions of decadal trends |
Tom Delworth; GFDL |
| 11:30 am -12:10 pm |
Predictability and Predictions of ENSO |
Ben Kirtman; COLA |
| 12:10 pm - 1:30 pm |
Lunch |
| 1:30 pm - 3:30 pm |
Coffee & Poster Session 3: Predictability and Predictions |
| 3:30 pm - 5:30 pm |
Panel Discussion: Panelists: Hamill, Goddard, Delworth, Kirtman, Kumar, Penland; Udall; Hartmann |
|
Friday, October 27, 2006
|
| 8:30 am - 9:00 am |
Summary and Recommendation from Panel on Attribution |
| 9:00 am - 10:00 am |
Discussion |
| 10:00 am - 10:30 am |
Coffee |
| 10:30 am - 11:00 am |
Summary and Recommendation from Panel on Prediction |
| 11:00 am - 12:00 |
Discussion |
| 12:00 - 12:30 pm |
Expectations for the Next Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop |
www.nws.noaa.gov
