Climate Prediction Center seasonal sea ice prediction

Feb 2023 to Oct 2023  (Updated: Mon Jan 30 00:21:27 UTC 2023)

This page displays Climate Prediction Center (CPC) experimental sea ice forecasts for the next 9 months. The forecasts are initialized from CPC sea ice initialization system (CSIS) and produced with a coupled forecast model (CFSm5) based on CFSv2 atmospheric component and GFDL MOM5. The forecast ensemble includes 20 members. Mean bias correction is made based on the average differences between retrospecitve forecasts and observations for 2007-2019. The forecasts are initialized from 21-25Jan2023 with four forecast members from each day. Sea ice extent (SIE) is the area sum of grid boxes where sea ice concentration is greater than 15%. Sea ice probability (SIP) is defined as the fraction of ensemble members in an ensemble forecast with September ice concentration in excess of 15%. Sea ice melt date (IMD) for each grid box is determined as the first day of the first 15 day period of sea ice concentration below 15% after 1 April. Sea ice freeze date (IFD) is determined by working backwards from the last day of the forecast and finding the first 15 day period of sea ice concentration below 15% and defining IFD as the day after this period.

Sea ice extent

Spatial maps
 Monthly mean sea ice concentration
Ensemble mean Ensemble spread
 Monthly sea ice probability
Global Alaska

Forecast data can be downloaded here.

Send your comments to: Wanqiu Wang   and  Yanyun Liu