Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Fri July 11 2025 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 17 - 21 2025 
 
At the outset of the 6-10 day period, mid-level ridging is forecast across the  
eastern Pacific and northeastern North America, with troughing situated across  
north-central Canada. This ridge-trough orientation over western North America  
favors enhanced northerly mid-level flow and an associated surface front  
pushing southward through the Plains and Midwest. However, these features are  
all weaker than yesterday in a preponderance of the guidance; as a result, a  
relatively flat mid-level height field covers the Contiguous United States  
(CONUS) at the start of the period. In this set-up, it is more difficult to  
discern temperature and precipitation patterns than it is when there are large  
and amplified synoptic-scale features that medium- to extended-range models can  
more easily discern and forecast. Consistent with the flatter mid-level  
pattern, the central CONUS front is forecast to be slightly less progressive  
and a bit weaker than yesterday. Meanwhile, the mid-level pattern is expected  
to very slowly evolve over the 6- to 14-day period, with a modest mid-level  
ridge building westward into the Intermountain West and Southwest, and an  
equally-modest trough expanding slowly southward into the eastern CONUS. By day  
10, the center of the mid-level ridge should be established in the southern  
Rockies, with a 500-hPa height maximum 593 to 595 dm shown by all ensemble  
means. At that point, despite the weak mid-level trough in the eastern CONUS,  
500-hPa heights should be at or above normal throughout the Lower 48. This  
configuration favors broadly robust but not extreme monsoonal rains in the  
Southwest, and enhanced rainfall in parts of the Southeast as the weak frontal  
system drifts southeastward into a moist quasi-tropical environment across this  
region. 
 
For Alaska, the models again have subtly changed the configuration of the  
strong North Pacific mid-level ridge and a strong 500-hPa trough to its  
north-northwest. The trough is now expected to be a bit more meridional, with  
above-normal 500-hPa heights covering most of the remainder of the state, which  
is more similar to forecasts from July 9 than yesterday (July 10). Most of this  
change was driven by the European ensemble (ECENS) mean forecast. The GEFS mean  
is weaker but broader with the trough, pushing lower 500-hPa heights across the  
state and confining the North Pacific ridge farther south. The Canadian  
ensemble mean (CMCE) is configured similar to the ECENS mean, but weaker, with  
500-hPa heights closer to, but still above, normal over most of the state  
relative to the ECENS mean. A blend of the ECENS and CMCE means is favored  
here, since it is forecast by a preponderance of the guidance and seems a more  
logical progression from the shorter-term forecasts. 
 
The anticipated mid-level pattern favors increased chances for above-normal  
temperatures across much of the south-central, northwestern, and eastern CONUS,  
with reduced chances for warmth along the South Atlantic and northeastern Gulf  
Coast. Most tools derived from the ensembles favor reduced odds for warmth  
here, which is at least partially due to expected above-normal precipitation.  
Chances for above-normal temperatures exceed 50 percent across the Lower  
Mississippi Valley just to the south and southwest of the building mid-level  
ridge, and south of the weaker cold front traversing the CONUS farther north.  
Most tools derived from the ensembles show a maximum of anomalous warmth over  
or near this region. The area with maximum chances for warmer than normal  
weather is shifted west of the consolidation forecast due to anticipated  
above-normal precipitation from eastern Louisiana eastward, and due to an  
internal excessive heat tool focusing extreme conditions farther to the  
southwest across southeastern Texas. Enhanced odds for warmer than normal  
conditions extend eastward and northeastward through the eastern CONUS, toward  
mean above-normal 500-hPa heights over the Northeast. Farther west, cooler than  
normal conditions are favored over the Upper Midwest and central CONUS behind  
the weak, dissipating cold front. But with the cold front expected to be weaker  
from yesterday, odds for below-normal temperatures across these regions are  
lower today. North of the slowly-building mid-level ridge in the southern  
Rockies, warmer than normal weather is favored over the northwestern Rockies  
and northern Intermountain West. Subnormal temperatures are favored farther  
south in the southern Rockies despite increasing 500-hPa heights due to  
expected enhanced monsoonal rainfall. Across Alaska, temperature tools derived  
from the ensembles remain highly inconsistent, and as a result, near-normal  
temperatures seem most likely over most of the state except the northwestern  
Mainland, where derived tools more consistently indicate warmth. Enhanced  
probabilities for above-normal temperatures are forecast across Hawaii  
supported by the consolidated forecast tool. 
 
With the rather amorphous 500-hPa pattern evolution, marginally enhanced  
chances for surplus precipitation cover most of the CONUS. The exception is  
part of the Great Basin, Intermountain West, and West Coast north of the  
building mid-level ridge, where near- to below-normal precipitation is  
anticipated. Odds for above-normal precipitation exceed 40 percent over the  
extreme northern Intermountain West (consistent with the consolidated tool for  
the last few days), the Southwest (where above-normal monsoonal rains are  
expected), and portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast  
(consistent with the advancing weak frontal boundary, the potential influx of  
tropical moisture, and most tools derived from the ensembles). Similarly,  
slightly-enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation cover most of Alaska  
and Hawaii. Chances for wetness top 40 percent over western Alaska near the  
strong mid-level trough. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 32% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 43% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, 15% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and  
10% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to  
decent model agreement regarding the mid-level pattern, offset by differences  
in temperature and precipitation forecasts from the ensemble-derived tools and  
the uncertainty inherent to a flat mid-level pattern with weak features, some  
of which may incorporate an influx of tropical moisture. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 19 - 25 2025  
 
The central CONUS front should evolve into a weak quasi-stationary convergence  
boundary over the Southeast during week-2 as mid-level ridging slowly builds in  
the western CONUS and weak troughing slowly expands southward in the eastern  
CONUS. 500-hPa heights are forecast to be above-normal throughout the continent  
by the end of week-2 per all ensemble means as the weak ridge/trough  
configuration sets up. Meanwhile, the North Pacific ridge flattens and the  
trough west of Alaska slowly weakens, establishing near- to above-normal  
heights across the state by the end of week-2. The ensemble means are in  
excellent agreement on this evolution, with all establishing a 500-hPa maximum  
of 596 dm near the center of the Four Corners States at the end of week-2.  
There is more uncertainty about the resulting sensible weather due to the  
weakness of individual mid-level features and the amorphous nature of the  
pattern. 
 
With the central CONUS cold front washing out and evolving into a weak  
convergence boundary, subnormal temperatures are not expected to continue  
through the forecast period in the central and southwestern CONUS. Above-normal  
mid-level heights imply slightly increased odds for warmer than normal  
conditions broadly across most of the CONUS. Odds for warmth exceed 40 percent  
over the northwestern quarter of the CONUS along the building mid-level ridge  
axis, and from the southeastern Great Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley  
consistent with most of the temperature tools derived from the ensembles.  
Decent monsoonal rains - especially early in the period - should limit  
temperatures in the Southwest despite the building mid-level ridge center, so  
temperatures closer to normal are expected there. To the north, the derived  
tools are again inconsistent across Alaska, but the orientation of the 500-hPa  
anomaly pattern suggests a warmer than normal period across most of the state,  
with temperatures closer to normal in the southwest closer to the weakening  
mid-level trough. The consolidated forecast tool continues to favor elevated  
probabilities of above-normal temperatures across Hawaii, especially in central  
and northwestern parts of the state. 
 
Monsoonal rainfall is expected to taper off across the Southwest as the  
mid-level ridge builds in later in the period, but should remain near normal  
for the period as a whole. Probabilities for above-normal precipitation are  
restricted to the north-central and eastern CONUS during week-2 close to  
declining mid-level heights as a weak trough builds in from the north. Odds for  
excess rainfall remain above 40 percent in the Southeast near the weak  
quasi-stationary convergence boundary, possibly enhanced by an influx of  
tropical moisture, although this scenario is far from certain. Meanwhile, near-  
to below-normal precipitation chances are elevated across parts of the interior  
West, and slightly enhanced chances for dryness have been brought into the  
central and southern Plains which will end up just downstream of the building  
mid-level ridge axis. Above-normal precipitation chances are increased across  
most of Mainland Alaska east of the weakening mid-level trough, but near- or  
below-normal precipitation is favored across the southern tier of the state,  
somewhat removed from the mid-level trough and in an area of increasing 500-hPa  
heights. Above-normal precipitation remains marginally favored across Hawaii,  
consistent with the forecast pattern featuring a weak mid-level low just  
northeast of the state. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 11, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  
Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to models  
consistently depicting an emerging stable low amplitude pattern, offset by  
inconsistent derived temperature tools and weak signals in the precipitation  
tools. 
 
FORECASTER: Rich Tinker 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in  
the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
July 17. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19810703 - 19520705 - 20060724 - 19880725 - 19940719 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19520704 - 19880724 - 19810701 - 20060724 - 20050714 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jul 17 - 21 2025 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   N    N      
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    N      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     N    A      
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A      
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A      
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A      
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     B    A      
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    N    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A      
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A      
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    A      
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    N    N      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jul 19 - 25 2025 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    A    N      
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N      
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B      
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B      
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    A    N      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N      
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  A    N      
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST N    N     AK PNHDL    N    B      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$