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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jun 24 - 28, 2019 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jun 26 - Jul 02, 2019 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jun 18, 2019

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Tue June 18 2019 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 24 - 28 2019 
 
Today's GFS, ECMWF and Canadian ensemble means are in good agreement on the  
500-hPa pattern throughout the forecast domain in the 6-10 day period. A ridge  
is predicted in the Northern Pacific near Alaska. Downstream troughing is  
forecast over the western CONUS and ridging is predicted to amplify over the  
central-eastern CONUS. The resultant manual blend features positive 500-hPA  
height anomalies for Alaska, negative 500-hPa height anomalies over the West  
and northern-central tier of the CONUS, and positive 500-hPa height anomalies  
over the Northeast.  
 
Below normal temperatures are favored for the western CONUS, and parts of the  
Northern and Central Plains as a result of troughing forecast over the region.  
Chances of above normal temperatures are enhanced over the Southern Plains and  
much of the eastern CONUS, influenced by low-level southerly flow. Above normal  
temperatures are favored over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, consistent  
with the dynamical forecast tools. Above normal temperatures are most likely  
for Alaska, due to the forecast positive 500-hPa height anomalies.  
 
Anomalous troughing upstream over the West and multiple shortwave troughs lead  
to enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation over much of the  
northwestern CONUS, and eastward to much of the east-central CONUS. Increased  
below normal precipitation probabilities are forecast over parts of the  
Southwest, the Gulf Coastal region and the Florida Peninsula, consistent with  
the forecast consolidation tool. Below normal precipitation probabilities are  
increased over Alaska, underneath predicted 500-hPa ridging over the region.  
Above normal precipitation is likely for parts of the western Aleutians, ahead  
of a forecast trough. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 10% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered  
on Day 8, 10% of Today's GFS Superensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of  
Today's operational 6z GFS centered on Day 8, 30% of Today's 0z European  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered  
on Day 8, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to  
good agreement between models on the predicted 500-hPa height pattern. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 26 - JUL 02, 2019  
 
Models are in fair agreement on the 500-hPa height pattern in week-2. The 0Z  
ECMWF ensemble mean is the most amplified with the trough over the west.  
Anomalous troughs are forecast west of the Aleutians and over the western  
CONUS. The amplified ridges are forecast to extend from the north Pacific to Alaska, and over the central part of the CONUS. The resultant manual blend indicates negative 500-hPa height anomalies for the western CONUS. Above normal heights are forecast for Alaska and the central-eastern CONUS. Probabilities of above normal temperatures are increased for Alaska, due to forecast above normal 500-hPa heights over the region. Chances of above normal temperatures are also enhanced over the central and the eastern CONUS associated with the positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Near to below normal temperatures are favored for much of the Western CONUS as a result of forecast troughing. Above normal precipitation chances are elevated for the northwestern CONUS, parts of the northern Plains, the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes region, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and the Mid-Atlantic, consistent with the consolidation forecast tool. Below normal precipitation is favored for parts of the Southwest and the Central and Southern Plains, the Florida Peninsula and the Northeast, consistent with the dynamical forecast tools. Increased chances of below normal precipitation are forecast for much of Alaska, due to forecast ridging over the region. Above normal precipitation probabilities are increased over southwestern mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, ahead of a forecast trough. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 10% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 10% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 10% of Today's GFS Superensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 10% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to fair agreement between models on the predicted 500-hPa height pattern initially, offset by uncertainty related to the amplitude of upper-level troughing over the West. FORECASTER: Y. Fan Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1981-2010 base period means for temperature...precipitation...and 500-hpa heights as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on June 20. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 19600702 - 19870626 - 19820614 - 19770618 - 19680622 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19600701 - 19870626 - 19820614 - 19750530 - 19560627 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 24 - 28 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA B B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 26 - Jul 02, 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA B B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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