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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: May 26 - 30, 2024 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: May 28 - Jun 03, 2024 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: May 20, 2024

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 26 - 30 2024 
 
Today's model solutions are in good agreement on the predicted 500-hPa  
circulation pattern across North America and surrounding regions during the  
6-10 day period. The manual 500-hPa height blend is based primarily on the  
ensemble means from the GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models due to recent model  
skill. The resultant manual blend features negative 500-hPa height anomalies  
and a weak trough over parts of the Northern Plains, the Upper Mississippi  
Valley, and the Upper Great Lakes. Ridging and positive height anomalies are  
forecast over much of the western, northeastern, and southern tier of the  
contiguous U.S. (CONUS). Mid-level ridging and above-normal 500-hPa heights are  
forecast over the Aleutians, while a trough is depicted over the eastern Gulf  
of Alaska extending southward off the West Coast. A weak mid-level trough is  
anticipated over the Hawaiian Islands. 
 
Mid-level troughing off the West Coast favors below-normal temperatures over  
parts of western Washington, northwestern Oregon, and southwestern California.  
Enhanced chances for near- to  above-normal temperatures are predicted over the  
remainder of the CONUS due to subtropical ridging and generally above-normal  
500-hPa height anomalies, supported by most of the dynamical temperature  
forecast tools. Probabilities favoring above normal temperatures exceed 70% for  
portions of South Texas and Florida. Above-normal temperature chances are  
increased over parts of northern Alaska, while below-normal temperatures are  
favored in portions of southwestern and southeastern Alaska, consistent with  
most temperature guidance. In Hawaii, below-normal temperature probabilities  
are favored underneath weak troughing and negative height anomalies. 
 
The subtropical ridge favors below-normal precipitation over much of the  
western CONUS, except for portions of northwestern Washington where  
above-normal precipitation is indicated due to a trough predicted over the West  
Coast. In contrast, near- to above-normal precipitation probabilities are  
increased over the remainder of the CONUS due to southerly return flow  
associated with mean surface high pressure over the Southeast and the mid-level  
trough expected to linger in the region through much of the period, and  
supported by most of the dynamical precipitation forecast tools. Above normal  
precipitation chances are elevated over most of Alaska supported by most of the  
dynamical precipitation forecast tools. In Hawaii, anomalously wet conditions  
statewide are likely in advance of a 500-hPa trough. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to  
good agreement among model solutions and forecast temperature and precipitation  
tools. 
 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 28 - JUN 03, 2024  
 
Ensemble mean solutions for the 8-14 day period predict a fairly consistent  
500-hPa circulation pattern relative to the 6-10 day period across North  
America and the surrounding regions. During week-2, positive 500-hPa height  
anomalies persist over the North Pacific and over much of the CONUS. A Trough  
is predicted along the West Coast. For Alaska, weak anomalous troughing is  
indicated over the Bering Sea, with mid-level ridging and positive height  
anomalies dominating the remainder of the state. A weak trough with  
below-normal 500-hPa heights continues to be forecast northwest of Hawaii. 
 
Near- to above-normal temperatures are favored for much of the CONUS due to  
subtropical ridging and above-normal 500-hPa heights predicted across the  
country, except for parts of the Northwest, the Middle and Lower Mississippi  
Valley, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley, and aligns well with the  
overall synoptic pattern. In Alaska, below normal temperature chances are  
increased over the southern portions of the State, with above normal  
temperature chances enhanced over northern parts of the State. In Hawaii, near-  
to below-normal temperatures are likely over the State due to the weak  
below-normal 500-hPa heights.  
 
Enhanced chances for below-normal precipitation are favored over much of the  
western CONUS except for portions of the Pacific Northwest where above-normal  
precipitation is indicated in association with a trough predicted along the  
West Coast. Above-normal precipitation is also forecast over south-central and  
southeastern CONUS and across the Eastern Seaboard, consistent with the  
consolidation and auto precipitation tools. Above-normal precipitation is  
favored over Alaska, supported by most of the precipitation forecast tools. For  
Hawaii, predominantly wet conditions are favored relative to normal with the  
same general synoptic features in place as was the case with the 6-10 day  
outlook. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  
Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, with  
good run-to-run continuity among forecast models, offset by differences between  
models regarding strength and position of various synoptic features. 
 
FORECASTER: Luke H 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in  
the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
June 20. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19620603 - 19860511 - 19990601 - 19660517 - 19890518 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19620602 - 19860511 - 19890517 - 19990601 - 19660516 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for May 26 - 30 2024 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  N    N     OREGON      N    B     NRN CALIF   N    B      
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    B      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    N    N      
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    N      
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A      
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A      
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A      
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    A      
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    B    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for May 28 - Jun 03, 2024 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   N    B      
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    A      
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N      
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A      
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    N    N      
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    N      
ILLINOIS    N    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    N      
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    N    N      
TENNESSEE   N    N     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    N    A      
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A      
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    N      
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A      
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N      
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  N    A      
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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