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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: Jun 24 - 28, 2019 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jun 26 - Jul 02, 2019 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jun 18, 2019 |
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Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Tue June 18 2019
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 24 - 28 2019
Today's GFS, ECMWF and Canadian ensemble means are in good agreement on the
500-hPa pattern throughout the forecast domain in the 6-10 day period. A ridge
is predicted in the Northern Pacific near Alaska. Downstream troughing is
forecast over the western CONUS and ridging is predicted to amplify over the
central-eastern CONUS. The resultant manual blend features positive 500-hPA
height anomalies for Alaska, negative 500-hPa height anomalies over the West
and northern-central tier of the CONUS, and positive 500-hPa height anomalies
over the Northeast.
Below normal temperatures are favored for the western CONUS, and parts of the
Northern and Central Plains as a result of troughing forecast over the region.
Chances of above normal temperatures are enhanced over the Southern Plains and
much of the eastern CONUS, influenced by low-level southerly flow. Above normal
temperatures are favored over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, consistent
with the dynamical forecast tools. Above normal temperatures are most likely
for Alaska, due to the forecast positive 500-hPa height anomalies.
Anomalous troughing upstream over the West and multiple shortwave troughs lead
to enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation over much of the
northwestern CONUS, and eastward to much of the east-central CONUS. Increased
below normal precipitation probabilities are forecast over parts of the
Southwest, the Gulf Coastal region and the Florida Peninsula, consistent with
the forecast consolidation tool. Below normal precipitation probabilities are
increased over Alaska, underneath predicted 500-hPa ridging over the region.
Above normal precipitation is likely for parts of the western Aleutians, ahead
of a forecast trough.
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 10% of Today's 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 8, 10% of Today's GFS Superensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of
Today's operational 6z GFS centered on Day 8, 30% of Today's 0z European
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered
on Day 8, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
good agreement between models on the predicted 500-hPa height pattern.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 26 - JUL 02, 2019
Models are in fair agreement on the 500-hPa height pattern in week-2. The 0Z
ECMWF ensemble mean is the most amplified with the trough over the west.
Anomalous troughs are forecast west of the Aleutians and over the western
CONUS. The amplified ridges are forecast to extend from the north Pacific to
Alaska, and over the central part of the CONUS. The resultant manual blend
indicates negative 500-hPa height anomalies for the western CONUS. Above normal
heights are forecast for Alaska and the central-eastern CONUS.
Probabilities of above normal temperatures are increased for Alaska, due to
forecast above normal 500-hPa heights over the region. Chances of above normal
temperatures are also enhanced over the central and the eastern CONUS
associated with the positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Near to below normal
temperatures are favored for much of the Western CONUS as a result of forecast
troughing.
Above normal precipitation chances are elevated for the northwestern CONUS,
parts of the northern Plains, the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, the
Great Lakes region, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and the Mid-Atlantic,
consistent with the consolidation forecast tool. Below normal precipitation is
favored for parts of the Southwest and the Central and Southern Plains, the
Florida Peninsula and the Northeast, consistent with the dynamical forecast
tools. Increased chances of below normal precipitation are forecast for much of
Alaska, due to forecast ridging over the region. Above normal precipitation
probabilities are increased over southwestern mainland Alaska and the
Aleutians, ahead of a forecast trough.
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 10% of Today's 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 10% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 11, 10% of Today's GFS Superensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 10% of
Today's operational 6z GFS centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to fair
agreement between models on the predicted 500-hPa height pattern initially,
offset by uncertainty related to the amplitude of upper-level troughing over
the West.
FORECASTER: Y. Fan
Notes:
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f"). Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
Probability of N is always < 40%.
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches"). Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
Probability of N is always < 40%.
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.
The climate prediction center uses 1981-2010 base period means for
temperature...precipitation...and 500-hpa heights as reference in the climate
outlooks.
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
June 20.
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19600702 - 19870626 - 19820614 - 19770618 - 19680622
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19600701 - 19870626 - 19820614 - 19750530 - 19560627
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jun 24 - 28 2019
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B B COLORADO B B
NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jun 26 - Jul 02, 2019
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B N ARIZONA B B COLORADO N B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
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Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion,
Surface Forecasts,
500mb Heights and Anomalies,
Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill,
Model Guidance Used
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Who We Are,
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