Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Fri June 06 2025 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 12 - 16 2025 
 
Today's ensemble mean solutions are similar to yesterday, with a transitional  
pattern underway early in the period that settles into a stable pattern for the  
last half of the period. Moderate mid-level ridging with an axis extending from  
the Upper Midwest into the northeastern Contiguous States (CONUS) retrograding  
by the middle of the period, establishing a ridge axis over central North  
America with peak mean 500-hPa height anomalies (above +60 m) reaching from the  
northern Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley into the central  
Appalachians. The mid-level ridge retrogression is in response to a digging  
mid-level trough dropping slowly from southeastern Alaska toward the  
northwestern CONUS. Models are slightly weaker with this feature than  
yesterday, but placement of the trough axis is nearly identical, and the  
location of a closed 558 dam contour at 500 hPa is essentially unchanged from  
yesterday, over far southeastern Alaska and adjacent Canada. Upstream, a strong  
mid-level ridge is expected to persist across the central North Pacific and  
Mainland Alaska, with a mean height anomaly maximum (near +150 m) just south of  
the eastern Aleutians. Today’s manual 500-hPa height field is very similar to  
yesterday, with some subtle differences in the magnitude of individual  
features, but almost identical placement. 
  
Above normal temperatures are favored from the Intermountain West eastward  
across the central and northern Plains, the Great Lakes, the lower Northeast,  
and the mid-Atlantic region in association with the mid-level ridging affecting  
these areas. With positive 500-hPa height anomalies stretching a bit farther  
east than yesterday, the greatest odds for above-normal temperatures (over 60  
percent) similarly stretch from the central Rockies into portions of the  
central and northern Plains and the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley. Odds  
exceeding 50 percent reach farther east across much of the Great Lakes, Ohio  
Valley, and mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, a preponderance of the temperature  
tools derived from the ensembles somewhat favors above-normal temperatures for  
most other locations along the Atlantic Seaboard in addition to the Southeast,  
the Gulf Coast region, and the Lower Mississippi Valley. However, confidence  
here is tempered because constructed analogs based on the various ensemble mean  
solutions are much cooler in the Southeast and Gulf Coast region. Farther west,  
the mid-level trough digging toward the northwestern CONUS favors below-normal  
temperatures along portions of the West Coast, especially western sections of  
the Pacific Northwest. Across Alaska, considerable discrepancies continue among  
the various raw and derived temperature tools based on the ensembles, with raw  
and bias-corrected output much cooler than the reforecast and calibrated tools.  
The official outlook is more in concert with the above-normal 500-hPa heights  
across the southern tier of the state, favoring above-normal temperatures  
across most of the Mainland, with near-normal temperatures favored near the  
Bering Sea. Above-normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii associated with  
warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the adjacent Pacific, and  
nominal increases in 500-hPa heights. 
 
An active pattern is anticipated across much of the CONUS in conjunction with  
mid-level features progressing eastward slightly, then retrograding. Unusually  
wet weather is favored over a large part of the Northwest, Rockies and  
Intermountain West, Plains, and eastern CONUS. Low-level flow should bring  
tropical moisture into the south-central and southeastern CONUS, which will  
interact at times with a wavering but persistent quasi-stationary front draped  
from southern Texas into the Southeast. This significantly enhances the  
likelihood of above-normal precipitation to over 50 percent from the western  
Gulf Coast region to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, downstream from  
the mean mid-level ridge position, precipitation should be closer to normal  
across New England under anticyclonic mid-level flow. Near-normal precipitation  
is also favored for much of California and the Southwest where this is a  
climatologically dry time of year. Across Alaska, southeastern areas just  
upstream from the mid-level trough should average drier than normal while  
portions of the western and northern Mainland - north and west of the ridge  
axis - should experience wetter than normal conditions under  
cyclonically-curved mid-level flow. Above normal precipitation is slightly  
favored for Hawaii with a weak trough potentially impacting the state. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 26% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 37% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, 22% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and  
15% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, with  
decent agreement among the tools on the mean mid-level pattern and in the  
day-to-day evolution of individual features, tempered by areas of significant  
disagreement among the disparate temperature and precipitation tools derived  
from the ensembles. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 14 - 20 2025  
 
The week-2 500-hPa pattern keeps the mid-level features in approximately the  
same locations as during the 6-10 day period while slowly deamplifying with  
time. In addition to good agreement on the locations of the main mid-level  
features, there is decent agreement on the evolution of these features until  
late in the period, when uncertainty increases as the ensemble mean forecasts  
all flatten out the height field. The positive 500-hPa height anomaly center  
south of Alaska should persist with an axis extending northward into the  
Mainland. Downstream, week-2 starts with a strong mid-level trough centered  
near the northwestern CONUS which is expected to slowly weaken over the course  
of the period. The central North American mid-level ridge is expected to move  
little, with maximum 500-hPa anomalies centered approximately over the northern  
Plains until late week-2, when the tools begin to diverge. The manual 500-hPa  
height blend favored the GEFS and European ensemble mean again today, with less  
weight given to the Canadian ensemble mean, which is slightly out of step with  
the GEFS and European ensemble mean, especially late in the period.  
 
With above-normal 500-hPa heights forecast for most locations from the Rockies  
eastward, above-normal temperatures continue to be broadly favored. The only  
exceptions are in central and southwestern Texas (consistent with the  
consolidation forecast) and in the Northeast (closer to lower mid-level heights  
in southeastern Canada). Odds for warmer than normal weather remain above 60  
percent from the central Rockies and adjacent areas of the Plains. Enhanced  
chances for subnormal temperatures in the CONUS are limited to the West Coast  
region near the persistent but weakening 500-hPa trough, and to northern New  
England near anomalously low mid-level heights centered near Atlantic Canada.  
Upstream, temperature tools are still very inconsistent across Alaska, but a  
preponderance of the guidance and the location of mid-level features would  
favor warmer than normal weather across most of the state outside the western  
and southeastern fringes, where mid-level heights are closer to normal.  
Slightly elevated 500-hPa heights and warmer than normal sea surface  
temperatures both enhance chances of warmer than normal conditions across  
Hawaii. 
 
The flow of low-level tropical moisture into the south-central and southeastern  
CONUS is expected to continue through much of week-2, but may weaken later in  
the period. Periodically this inflow is expected to interact with a weak but  
persistent quasi-stationary frontal boundary, keeping enhanced odds for surplus  
precipitation across these areas, as far north as southern New England.  
Above-normal precipitation is also favored in the Northwest, downstream from  
the moderating mid-level trough just off the West Coast. Over most other parts  
of the CONUS,  the precipitation tools from the ensembles exhibit a lot of  
uncertainty, which is reflected by forecasts for near-normal conditions or  
slightly favoring above-normal amounts. The odds slightly favor drier than  
normal conditions in the central Great Basin and adjacent Rockies, consistent  
with the consolidation and a preponderance of the raw and adjusted output from  
the ensembles. Southeastern Alaska remains upstream from the dissipating West  
Coast mid-level trough, resulting in anticyclonic mid-level flow that should  
inhibit precipitation. Farther west, upstream from a mid-level ridge axis,  
cyclonic mid-level flow enhances the odds for above-normal precipitation over  
western and northern Alaska. Enhanced above-normal precipitation probabilities  
persist across Hawaii, consistent with the consolidation of calibrated  
precipitation amounts from the GEFS and the European ensemble. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 7% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on  
Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 23% of  
Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, with  
good agreement on the mean mid-level pattern and broad deamplification tempered  
by the inherent uncertainty associated with weak surface features, and  
disparities among the temperature and precipitation tools derived from the  
ensembles. 
 
FORECASTER: Rich Tinker 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in  
the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
June 19. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19990530 - 19980612 - 19510617 - 19800530 - 19780617 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19990531 - 20000617 - 19900616 - 19780618 - 19980612 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jun 12 - 16 2025 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    N     NRN CALIF   B    N      
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    N      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A      
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    A      
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A      
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N      
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  A    N      
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    B    N      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jun 14 - 20 2025 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N      
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     A    N      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    A      
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       B    N      
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A      
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N      
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    N    N      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$