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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jun 01 - 05, 2022 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jun 03 - 09, 2022 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: May 26, 2022

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 05 2022 
 
Today’s model solutions are in good agreement on the forecast mid-level  
circulation pattern across the North American region. A trough is forecast over  
the southern Aleutians expanding eastward to near the west coast. Downstream, a  
mean ridge is forecast over the Rockies northwestward to northwestern Canada  
extending into eastern Mainland Alaska with slightly above normal 500-hPa  
heights over Alaska and parts of the eastern CONUS.  
 
Above normal temperatures are favored over Alaska under positive 500-hPa height  
anomalies. Above normal temperatures are likely for parts of the Pacific Northwest consistent with the consolidation forecast tool. Below normal temperatures are favored over parts of the north-central CONUS due to forecast low-level northerly flow. Above normal temperatures are favored for parts of the Southwestern CONUS, Southern Plains and the eastern CONUS consistent with the consolidation forecast tool. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for parts of northern Mainland Alaska, consistent with dynamical model precipitation tools. Above normal precipitation is favored for most of the Pacific Northwest ahead of a forecast
trough. Below normal precipitation is favored for parts of the Great Basin, underneath a forecast mean ridge.  Above normal precipitation is favored for parts of the southern Rockies, Central Plains and Southeast due to forecast low-level southerly moisture flow and shortwave systems moving across the region. Below normal precipitation is likely for parts of the Great lakes region under a de-amplified ridge. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 15% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 15% of Today's GFS Superensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on Day 8, 30% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good model agreement, offset by some differences among the temperature and precipitation forecast tools and increased model spread later in the period. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 03 - 09 2022 The predicted circulation pattern for the 6-10 day period persists into the week-2, however 500-hPa height anomalies are further weaken in the week-2 ensemble means and the manual blend due to a significant increase in uncertainty. Weak troughing is forecast over the western coast and eastern
CONUS. A weak ridge persists over much of the north-central CONUS. Near average mid-level heights are forecast over much of the forecast domain. Above normal temperatures are favored over much of Alaska consistent with the consolidation forecast tool. Below normal temperatures are slightly favored for parts of the Pacific Northwest and most of north-central CONUS consistent with temperature reforecast tools. Above normal temperatures are favored for parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, the Southern Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Southeast, consistent with the temperature consolidation tool. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for eastern Mainland Alaska, consistent with the dynamical model forecasts. Near to above normal precipitation is favored for most of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, and parts of the Northern Plains, ahead of a predicted mean trough. Below normal precipitation is slightly favored for parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, supported by dynamical model precipitation tools. Above normal precipitation is favored for portions of the Southwest, as moisture flow is drawn northward into the region. Below normal precipitation is favored for parts of the Southern Plains northward towards the Great Lakes, consistent with the precipitation consolidation tool. Above normal precipitation is favored for much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, consistent with the precipitation consolidation tool and increased moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 15% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 15% of Today's GFS Superensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 10% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Well below average, 1 out of 5, due to predicted very weak mean 500-hPa anomalies across most of the forecast domain and weak and conflicting signals in the temperature and precipitation tools over most regions. FORECASTER: Y. Fan Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on June 16. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 19690518 - 20090513 - 20090506 - 19810510 - 19590531 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20090512 - 20090506 - 19590531 - 20070519 - 19810511 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 01 - 05 2022 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N A NEVADA N B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 03 - 09 2022 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N A NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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