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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jun 28 - Jul 02, 2021 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jun 30 - Jul 06, 2021 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jun 22, 2021

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Tue June 22 2021 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 28 - JUL 02, 2021 
 
Today's model solutions are in good agreement on the predicted 500-hPa  
circulation pattern across North America and surrounding regions during the  
6-10 day period. Dynamical model solutions forecast an amplified circulation  
pattern with a trough over the North Pacific, centered over the Aleutians, and  
a ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the eastern North Pacific  
and western North America. Downstream, a trough is predicted over the  
east-central CONUS, and positive 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over  
the Northeast. 
 
Near to below normal temperatures are favored over much of western and  
south-central Mainland Alaska, due to the predicted trough over the Aleutians  
and associated potential storm system development and increased cloud cover.  
Predicted southwesterly flow favors above normal temperatures for northeastern  
Mainland Alaska and the Panhandle. A predicted trough over the east-central  
CONUS and near zero 500-hPa height anomalies favor enhanced probabilities of  
below normal temperatures for eastern areas of the Southwest, the Central and  
Southern Plains, the Central and Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast.  
Above normal temperatures are likely over the western CONUS, the Northern  
Plains, and the Northeast, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies and  
consistent with the ERF consolidation forecast tool. 
 
A predicted trough over the Aleutians and anomalous southerly flow enhance  
probabilities of above normal precipitation over the eastern Aleutians as well  
as western and northern Mainland Alaska. Below normal precipitation is favored  
for eastern interior areas of Mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle, under a  
predicted ridge. A predicted ridge and anomalous northerly flow increase  
probabilities of below normal precipitation from the Pacific Northwest, across  
the Central and Northern Plains states into the Upper Mississippi Valley and  
western Great Lakes region.  A predicted trough over the east-central CONUS and  
anomalous southerly surface flow around high pressure over the Atlantic favor  
above normal precipitation from the Gulf Coast states across the Southeast  
region and Eastern Seaboard, excluding the Florida Peninsula and Southeast  
Atlantic coast, consistent with the ERF consolidation forecast tool. An  
enhanced southwestern monsoon and associated above normal precipitation are  
favored for much of the Southwest, supported by dynamical model forecasts and  
the ERF consolidation. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Well above average, 5 out of 5,  
due to good agreement among the model circulation, temperature, and  
precipitation forecasts. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 30 - JUL 06, 2021  
 
During the week-2 period, the 500-hPa circulation pattern is generally forecast  
to persist but somewhat deamplify, as ensemble spread and uncertainty increase.  
In particular the trough over the Aleutians deamplifies significantly during  
the week 2 period, relative to the 6-10 day period. 
 
Below normal temperatures are favored for southwestern Mainland Alaska,  
associated with a mean trough over the Aleutians and potential development of  
storm systems leading to increased cloud cover, while above normal temperatures  
are favored for parts of northeastern Mainland Alaska and the Panhandle, under  
anomalous southerly flow. Above normal temperatures are likely over the West,  
extending eastward across the Central and Northern Plains, and much of the  
Great Lakes and Northeast regions, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies.  
Below normal temperatures are favored over most of the remainder of the CONUS,  
from eastern areas of the Southwest monsoon region across the Southern Plains  
and Central and Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast region, under the  
predicted trough and near zero 500-hPa height anomalies.    
 
Probabilities of above normal precipitation are enhanced over southwestern  
Mainland Alaska due to predicted troughing over the Aleutians. Below normal  
precipitation probabilities are increased for the southern Alaska Panhandle and  
most of the northwestern CONUS and Northern and Central Plains, associated with  
the predicted ridge over the Gulf of Alaska and western CONUS. Near to above  
normal precipitation is favored across the western and central Gulf Coast  
region and much of the eastern CONUS, consistent with the ERF consolidation  
tool and troughing over the east-central CONUS. An active monsoon and  
associated above normal precipitation are favored in week 2 across most of the  
Southwest, supported by dynamical model forecasts and the ERF consolidation  
tool. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  
Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to  
good agreement among model circulation forecasts, offset by increasing  
uncertainty and differences among the temperature and precipitation forecast  
tools.  
 
FORECASTER: D Collins 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1981-2010 base period means for  
temperature...precipitation...and 500-hpa heights as reference in the climate  
outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
July 15. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
20030608 - 19890604 - 20000627 - 19510630 - 20040619 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
20030608 - 19890604 - 19980601 - 20040619 - 20000628 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jun 28 - Jul 02, 2021 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    N      
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B      
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    B    B      
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B      
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      B    B     OKLAHOMA    B    A      
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A      
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    B    A      
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   A    B      
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    N    A      
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    A      
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    B    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A      
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A      
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    A    B      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jun 30 - Jul 06, 2021 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    A      
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B      
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N      
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B      
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A      
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A      
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    B    A      
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   A    N      
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    B    A      
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    N      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    N    A      
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N      
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    N      
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    N      
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    A    B      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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