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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Sep 24 - 28, 2019 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Sep 26 - Oct 02, 2019 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Sep 18, 2019

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Wed September 18 2019 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 24 - 28 2019 
 
Today's model solutions depict a mainly transient 500-hPa geopotential height  
pattern across the U.S. for the 6-10 day period. However, the projected  
downward trend in the Pacific-North American pattern to a negative phase toward  
the end of September favors an amplified pattern developing over the CONUS by  
the end of the period. There are some timing differences between the 00z ECMWF  
ensembles and the 06z GEFS. The ECMWF ensembles build the ridge in the East  
faster, while the GEFS delays this development until further into week-2, and  
depicts more troughing in the East for the 6-10 day period. This forecast  
favors the ECMWF due to its consistency. For the 6-10 day period overall,  
positive 500-hPa height anomalies are favored for parts of the Eastern Plains,  
Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and the Ohio Valley. Negative 500-hPa  
height anomalies are favored over northern New England and parts of the Pacific  
Northwest and Inter-mountain region. 
 
Near to above normal temperatures are favored across most of the CONUS. Very  
warm temperatures are anticipated over the East, especially early in the  
period. Some cooler temperatures are possible depending on how troughing  
evolves over the East. The 00z deterministic ECMWF shows a period of troughing  
as well, but not as robust as in the GEFS. However, any cooling does not appear  
to last with temperatures increasing once again toward day 10 as the pattern  
begins to amplify. Despite the negative 500-hPa height anomalies over New  
England, both the GEFS and ECMWF reforecast tools show increased above normal  
temperature probabilities over the region. Over parts of the Pacific Northwest,  
the Inter-mountain region, and the Desert Southwest, below normal temperatures  
are forecast. The ECMWF reforecast tool continues to show higher probabilities  
of below normal temperatures over these areas than the GEFS tool. Given the  
forecast for increased cloudiness and rainfall, the cooler solution of the  
ECMWF is favored. Above normal temperatures are forecast for parts of  
California where higher 500-hPa heights are anticipated. Above normal  
temperatures are favored for western and southern mainland Alaska, the  
Aleutians, and the Panhandle as a result of increased Pacific flow and  
anomalously warm sea surface temperatures. 
 
There remains increased probabilities for above normal precipitation over the  
much of the West due to the increase in Pacific flow and troughing forecast  
over the region. Forecast precipitation over climatologically dry areas also  
favors elevated probabilities for above normal precipitation. Tropical Storms  
Lorena and Mario, both off the coast of Mexico, are forecast to track  
northwestward, and may bring increased moisture into parts of the Southwest  
early in the period. To the east, frontal activity over parts of the Plains and  
Mississippi Valley favors increased precipitation chances. Therefore,  
probabilities for above normal precipitation are increased over these areas.  
Below normal precipitation is forecast along the East Coast from Southern New  
England through Florida, and also for southern Texas, as these areas are  
anticipated to be far enough displaced from significant upper level dynamics.  
Above normal precipitation is favored for Alaska due to troughing to the west  
over the Bering Sea and an active storm track forecast for the state. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 20% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on  
Day 8, 60% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 10% of  
Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to a  
forecast transitional pattern, but increasing confidence of greater  
amplification toward the end of the period. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 26 - OCT 02, 2019  
 
For week-2, an amplified pattern is forecast to develop over the CONUS with  
ridging in the East and troughing in the West. The ECMWF ensembles have  
consistently shown this scenario, and the GEFS has been trending toward this  
pattern as well. Above normal 500-hPa heights remain favored for the eastern  
half of the CONUS. Near to below normal 500-hPa heights are forecast for the  
West. The northward expansion of the East Pacific ridge favors positive 500-hPa  
height anomalies over Alaska. 
 
Above normal temperatures are forecast across much of the CONUS east of the  
Rockies, with seasonably warm weather anticipated to end September. Conversely,  
increased probabilities of below normal temperatures are shown over the West  
underneath negative 500-hPa height anomalies and forecast troughing. Increased  
above normal temperature probabilities are favored over Alaska due to forecast  
higher 500-hPa heights and weaker troughing relative to the 6-10 day period. 
 
Above normal precipitation is favored for much of the western two-thirds of the  
CONUS. Troughing over the West favors increased chances of precipitation over climatologically dry areas. Further east across the Plains and Mississippi Valley, frontal activity downstream of the trough favors increased precipitation chances. The highest chances of precipitation are across the northern half of these regions, where a stronger temperature gradient is anticipated. Below normal precipitation is forecast over the East Coast underneath forecast ridging and surface high pressure. Although a trend toward higher 500-hPa heights is forecast over Alaska, weak troughing is projected to remain in place over the Bering Sea, favoring a continuation of an active weather pattern across the state. Therefore, probabilities of above normal precipitation are forecast for most of Alaska excluding the Panhandle. Below normal precipitation probabilities are favored for the Panhandle due to a projected northward shift in the mean storm track. Of note is that tropical activity is increasing in the Atlantic Basin. Tropical Storm Jerry is located in the Central Atlantic and forecast to strengthen into a hurricane in the coming days. Most dynamical models currently favor an out-to-sea track, but there is a great deal of uncertainty in forecasting tropical cyclone tracks beyond a week. Two other disturbances in the Atlantic are also being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for possible development. Interests along the East and Gulf Coasts should pay close attention to forecasts from the National Hurricane Center related to Jerry and any other disturbances that may develop in the next couple of weeks. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 5% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on Day 11, and 75% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to model agreement on the pattern becoming more amplified, offset by uncertainty in timing. FORECASTER: Thomas Collow Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1981-2010 base period means for temperature...precipitation...and 500-hpa heights as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on September 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20040918 - 19770921 - 19970914 - 19600901 - 19850914 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20040919 - 19600902 - 19770920 - 19850914 - 19940911 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Sep 24 - 28 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF N A IDAHO B A NEVADA N A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A MASS A N CONN A B RHODE IS A N PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Sep 26 - Oct 02, 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A N MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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