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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jun 07 - 11, 2020 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jun 09 - 15, 2020 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jun 01, 2020

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Mon June 01 2020 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 07 - 11 2020 
 
Model solutions depict an amplified 500-hPa ridge slowly shifting eastward from  
the north-central CONUS during the 6-10 day period, while an upper-level trough  
ejects from the western CONUS. Due to the persistent blocking downstream over  
the North Atlantic, the ECMWF ensemble mean is preferred with its slower  
eastward progression of the longwave pattern. The high amplitude ridge is  
likely to result in above normal temperatures across much of the central and  
eastern CONUS. However, an upper-level trough across the Canadian Maritimes  
slightly favors below normal temperatures across the Northeast. The largest  
probabilities (above 70 percent) of above normal temperatures extend from the  
western Corn Belt south to the Texas Panhandle. Below normal temperatures are  
likely to accompany the upper-level throughout for much of the West. 
  
As the upper-level trough progresses eastward, above normal precipitation is  
favored from the Pacific Northwest east to the northern Rockies, northern Great  
Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley. To the south of the storm track, below  
normal precipitation is favored across the central to southern high Plains  
along with southern Colorado and New Mexico. Below normal precipitation is also  
likely across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast due to surface high pressure  
prevailing. 
 
The remnants of eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda are located over the  
Yucatan Peninsula. The large-scale environment is favorable for redevelopment  
of a tropical cyclone (TC) once the remnants emerge into the Bay of Campeche.  
Since last week, there has been a westward shift in the eventual track of this  
TC over the Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF ensemble mean indicates a track towards  
the Texas Gulf Coast on June 7 and 8, while the 6Z GFS ensemble mean has a more  
eastward track across Louisiana. With a tropical cyclone likely to affect the  
western half of the Gulf Coast, large probabilities (above 60 percent) of above  
normal precipitation are forecast for southeast Texas and the Lower Mississippi  
Valley. Increased chances of above normal precipitation extend inland from the  
Gulf Coast due to the remnants of the TC moving inland but with reduced  
probabilities due to increasing uncertainty on that track. 
  
An upper-level ridge (trough) is forecast over the Aleutians (eastern Gulf of  
Alaska). This longwave pattern yields increased chances of above normal  
temperatures for most of Alaska. Precipitation signals are weak among the model  
guidance, but slightly elevated chances of above normal precipitation are  
forecast across southern mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle.   
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good  
agreement and consistency among the ensemble means offset by uncertainty on the  
eventual track of a tropical cyclone emerging from the Gulf of Mexico.  
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 09 - 15 2020  
 
The strong omega block over the North Atlantic is forecast to persist into the  
early part of Week-2 which continues to increase uncertainty on how the  
longwave 500-hPa flow pattern evolves over North America. Another source of  
uncertainty is where the tropical cyclone emerging from the Gulf of Mexico  
tracks inland. Model solutions are in good agreement that the upper-level  
trough ejecting from the West dampens with time. The 0Z ECMWF ensemble mean is  
preferred given its better anomaly correlation at 500-hPa during the past 60  
days. This model solution features a broad-scale ridge with above normal  
500-hPa heights (30 meters or more) over much of the CONUS. This large  
upper-level ridge increases chances of above normal temperatures across a  
majority of the lower 48. However, near to below normal temperatures are  
favored across the Pacific Northwest and northern to central Rockies due to  
anomalously cool temperatures early in Week-2. Low soil moisture is likely to  
contribute to above normal temperatures across the central to southern high  
Plains. Probabilities of above normal temperatures are reduced for the western  
Gulf Coast, Lower Mississippi Valley, and eastern Texas due to potential  
influences from a tropical cyclone emerging from the Gulf of Mexico.   
 
Above normal precipitation is favored for much of the Gulf Coast States due to  
the likelihood of a tropical system emerging from the Gulf of Mexico by the  
beginning of Week-2. Although probabilities are slightly higher across eastern  
Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley, there are a number of plausible  
outcomes on the eventual track. If the upper-level trough ejecting from the  
West remains amplified, it could steer the tropical cyclone northward more  
rapidly away from the Gulf Coast. However, a weakening or slower progression of  
the upper-level trough may result in it stalling along or near the Gulf Coast.  
The upper-level trough elevates chances of above normal precipitation from the  
eastern Dakotas eastward to the Great Lakes, while surface high pressure  
continues to favor below normal precipitation along much of the East Coast.  
Since the mid-latitude storm track is likely to be shifted north from its  
typical position during early to mid-June, increased chances of below normal  
precipitation are forecast across the central to southern High Plains which  
extends west into the Great Basin. A low amplitude through elevates chances of  
above normal precipitation across parts of the Pacific Northwest.  
 
Above normal 500-hPa heights favor above normal temperatures across mainland  
Alaska and the Aleutians. Large positive SST anomalies (around 2 degrees C)  
further increase probabilities of above normal temperatures for the Aleutians  
and coastal areas of southwest mainland Alaska. Precipitation signals are weak  
across Alaska, but the most likely area for below normal precipitation is the  
Aleutians underneath a ridge aloft.  
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 60% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 11, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  
Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to  
uncertainty on the eventual track inland of the tropical cyclone emerging from  
the Gulf of Mexico and large ensemble spread in a deamplifying longwave  
pattern.  
 
FORECASTER: Brad Pugh 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1981-2010 base period means for  
temperature...precipitation...and 500-hpa heights as reference in the climate  
outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
June 18. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19880614 - 19880514 - 19750513 - 19530613 - 19700518 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19880514 - 19880614 - 19610527 - 19750513 - 19580526 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jun 07 - 11 2020 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A      
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A      
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A      
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    A    B      
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    B      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    B     KENTUCKY    A    B      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    B      
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    B      
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B      
PENN        N    B     NEW JERSEY  N    B     W VIRGINIA  A    B      
MARYLAND    N    B     DELAWARE    N    B     VIRGINIA    A    B      
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    N    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jun 09 - 15 2020 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       B    N     NEVADA      B    N      
W MONTANA   B    N     E MONTANA   B    N     WYOMING     B    B      
UTAH        B    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    B      
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    B      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    B      
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    B      
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    N    B      
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    B     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    N    B     VIRGINIA    A    N      
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N      
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    N      
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    N    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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