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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Nov 27 - Dec 01, 2019 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Nov 29 - Dec 05, 2019 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Nov 21, 2019

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EST Thu November 21 2019 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 27 - DEC 01, 2019 
 
Today's GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensemble mean solutions are in good agreement  
over the forecast domain for the 6-10 day period. A ridge is forecast over the  
Gulf of Alaska and a trough is predicted over the western CONUS. Downstream,  
model solutions continue to indicate a weak ridge over the southeast CONUS, and  
a trough over the northeastern CONUS. The manual 500-hPa height blend is based  
primarily on the ensemble means from the GFS and ECMWF models. The resultant  
manual blend indicates positive 500-hPa height anomalies over much of Alaska,  
while negative 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over most of the CONUS  
except for the southeastern CONUS where positive 500-hPa height anomalies are  
indicated.   
 
Above normal 500-hPa heights and sea surface temperatures favor above normal  
temperatures for the Aleutians and Mainland Alaska. Above normal temperatures  
are favored for the Central and Southern Plains, the middle and lower  
Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast CONUS ahead of the mean western trough  
with mostly near to above normal 500-hPa heights. Elevated probabilities for  
below normal temperatures across much of the western CONUS and the Northern  
High Plains are associated with a mean trough over the West throughout the 6-10  
day period. Probabilities for below normal temperatures are favored for the  
Alaska Panhandle due to the northerly anomalous flow. 
 
Above normal precipitation is expected across much of Alaska, except for the  
Alaska Panhandle, due to mean onshore flow. Enhanced probabilities for above  
normal precipitation are favored over most the CONUS in association with a very  
active jet stream pattern, with low-pressure systems amplifying east of the  
Rockies and propagating northeastward across the Great Lakes. Below normal  
precipitation is favored for the far Northwest and parts of the Florida  
Peninsula, based on the GEFS and ECENS reforecasts tools. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 20% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered  
on Day 8, 20% of Today's GFS Superensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 20% of  
Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 20% of Yesterday's 12z  
European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 7  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to  
good agreement among the models for the amplified troughing across the western  
CONUS, offset by inconsistency of temperature over the Northeast. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 29 - DEC 05, 2019  
 
During the Week-2 period, an amplified ridge over the northeast Pacific and the  
mean trough over the western CONUS are forecast. Positive 500-hPa height  
anomalies are favored over Alaska. Near normal 500-hPa height anomalies are  
favored across the Gulf Coast. Below normal 500-hPa heights are expected across  
the rest of the CONUS. 
 
Above normal temperatures are favored over Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians in  
association with the above normal 500-hPa heights. Enhanced probabilities for  
above normal temperatures are favored over the Southern Plains and southeastern  
CONUS. Probabilities for below normal temperatures are favored over the Alaska Panhandle, the western CONUS, and the northern tier in association with the mean trough over the West and mean northwesterly flow at the surface. Above normal precipitation is expected over most mainland Alaska and the Aleutians in association with mean onshore flow. Enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation over the Southwest CONUS are associated with a potential influx of moisture early in the Week-2 period. Above normal precipitation is favored over much of the northern tier and Southeast in association with a very active jet stream pattern. Below normal precipitation is expected over parts of the Northwest and the Alaska panhandle due to the amplifying ridge over the East Pacific. Below normal precipitation is also favored for parts of the Florida Peninsula, based on the GEFS and ECENS reforecasts tools. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 20% of Today's GFS Superensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 20% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20% of Yesterday's 12z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to consistencies among models related to the mean jet stream pattern, offset by reduced confidence in the precipitation forecast related to pattern progression. FORECASTER: Qin Z Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1981-2010 base period means for temperature...precipitation...and 500-hpa heights as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on December 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 19711118 - 20041121 - 19611114 - 19571101 - 20001101 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19711118 - 19571101 - 20041121 - 19921201 - 19521119 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Nov 27 - Dec 01, 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Nov 29 - Dec 05, 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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