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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Feb 02 - 06, 2020 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Feb 04 - 10, 2020 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jan 27, 2020

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EST Mon January 27 2020 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 02 - 06 2020 
 
The NCEP GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts are in poor  
agreement across the North American region during the 6-10 day period. An  
expected transition of the circulation pattern over the next couple weeks is  
predicted by dynamical models. A 500-hPa trough is predicted over the western  
Aleutian Islands by all ensemble models, as a ridge is predicted to build in  
amplitude over the North Pacific and Gulf of Alaska, resulting in downstream  
troughing and northerly flow into the CONUS. The NCEP GEFS predicts a more  
rapid transition from a more zonal flow, that brings warm Pacific air into the  
CONUS early in the period, to northerly flow that could bring Arctic air into  
the CONUS. The ECMWF and Canadian ensemble prediction systems predict a slower  
transition in the flow pattern, resulting in a different orientation of the  
flow into the CONUS over the 6-10 day period. The manual blend of 500-hPa  
height forecasts weights the ECMWF ensemble mean greater than the NCEP GEFS and  
Canadian ensemble means, due to recent anomaly correlation">anomaly correlation skill. The resulting  
forecast indicates negative 500-hPa height anomalies over Northern Alaska and  
across Canada into the Northern CONUS from the Northern Rockies to the  
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. Weak positive 500-hPa height anomalies are  
indicated over southwestern mainland Alaska and along the Pacific coast of the  
CONUS, with slightly positive anomalies extending across the southern CONUS,  
the lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Southeast region.  
 
The 6-10 day temperature outlook relies on the temperature forecasts of both  
the GEFS and ECWMF ensembles, despite significant differences in the  
temperature forecast tools from these two models, balancing the expected  
temperature patterns early and late in the 6-10 day period. Below normal  
temperatures are likely for Northern Alaska, under negative 500-hPa height  
anomalies, while above normal temperatures are likely for parts of southwestern  
Alaska with southerly flow predicted ahead of a mid-level trough. Below normal  
temperatures are also likely for the Pacific Northwest into the Northern  
Rockies, as the circulation pattern favors northerly flow into the western  
CONUS overall. Pacific flow and weak positive 500-hPa height anomalies favor  
above normal temperatures for much of California, southern Nevada, as well as  
parts of the Southwest. The Canadian and ECMWF model solutions cut off the flow  
of Arctic air from the Eastern CONUS resulting in enhanced probabilities for  
above normal temperatures for most of the Eastern CONUS, including the Central  
Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the eastern Great Lakes region and the  
entire Eastern Seaboard. Probabilities of above normal temperatures over the  
eastern CONUS are moderated by the temperature forecast of the GEFS ensemble  
mean solution. 
 
The 6-10 day precipitation outlook is consistent with both the slower  
transition of the circulation pattern in the ECMWF solution and the more rapid  
transition of the GEFS solution. Above normal precipitation is most likely for  
Alaska, ahead of a predicted trough over the western Aleutians. Near to below  
normal precipitation is likely over most areas west of the Rocky Mountains,  
under predicted ridging, while troughing into the Southwest CONUS, especially  
later in the 6-10 day period, leads to likely above normal precipitation from  
eastern areas of the Southwest into western areas of the Central Plains states.  
The development of storms dropping southward into the Northern CONUS, to the  
east of the Northern Rockies, leads to likely above normal precipitation from  
Montana to the western Great Lakes region. Above normal precipitation is most  
likely for much of the eastern CONUS from the Appalachians to the Atlantic  
coast, ahead of a predicted trough, while below normal precipitation is likely  
for areas if the eastern CONUS from the Southern Plains to the Central  
Mississippi Valley, behind the predicted trough axis.  
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to  
relatively poor agreement among model circulation forecasts, and good agreement  
among precipitation forecast tools, offset by significant disagreement among  
temperature forecast tools.  
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 04 - 10 2020  
 
While there are some consistencies between the NCEP GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian  
circulation forecasts for the 8-14 day period, differences in the timing of  
changes in the pattern and slight differences in the orientation of the average  
mid-level flow over the CONUS for the 8-14 day period lead to significant  
uncertainty. The primary difference between ensemble prediction system  
forecasts continues to be the introduction of cold Arctic air into the CONUS in  
the NCEP GEFS forecasts compared to a generally warmer pattern dominated by  
Pacific flow in the ECMWF forecasts. The manual 500-hPa height blend of the  
NCEP GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian model forecasts continues to show negative  
500-hPa height anomalies over Northern Alaska. Positive 500-hPa height  
anomalies are predicted over southwestern areas of Alaska, as well as over the  
west coast of the CONUS, while negative 500-hPa anomalies are predicted to  
extend over nearly the entire CONUS east of the Rocky Mountains, with the  
exceptions of southern Texas and the Florida Peninsula.  
 
The 8-14 day temperature outlook indicates increasing chances of below normal  
temperatures for much of the CONUS, with likely below normal temperatures in  
the 8-14 day period from the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern and  
Central Rockies. To the east, likely near normal temperatures are indicated  
over parts of the High Plains, where downsloping mid-level flow may moderate  
temperatures. Below normal temperatures are also likely for eastern areas of  
the Northern Plains, as well as parts of the Great Lakes region and Central  
Mississippi Valley, under predicted northerly flow and negative 500-hPa height  
anomalies. Likely above normal temperatures are indicated from the Gulf Coast across parts of the Southeast region, and along the Atlantic Coast from Florida to southern Maine, under predicted southerly flow early in the 8-14 day period. Temperature forecasts from the ECMWF ensemble model favor above normal temperatures for the 8-14 day period over most of the eastern CONUS, while temperature forecasts from the GEFS favor likely below normal temperatures over this region for the 8-14 day period. Despite significant uncertainty in model temperature forecasts for the 8-14 day period, there is general agreement on the precipitation forecasts between the GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian ensembles. Models predict a very similar precipitation pattern for the 8-14 day period to the precipitation pattern for the 6-10 day period. Above normal precipitation continues to be likely for much of Alaska as well as parts of the western CONUS from the Rocky Mountains eastward. Above normal precipitation is also generally likely from east of the Mississippi River to the Atlantic coast, as the trough over the eastern CONUS is predicted to amplify. Below normal precipitation is likely for parts of the CONUS to the west of the Rockies and for parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas behind the predicted trough axis. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to relatively poor agreement among model circulation forecasts and good agreement among precipitation forecast tools, offset by significant disagreement among temperature forecast tools. FORECASTER: D Collins Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1981-2010 base period means for temperature...precipitation...and 500-hpa heights as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on February 20. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 19910205 - 19610205 - 19600203 - 19580115 - 19980210 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19600203 - 19610205 - 19930122 - 19980121 - 19530206 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Feb 02 - 06 2020 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B B NEVADA A B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A UTAH B B ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA N A IOWA N B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Feb 04 - 10 2020 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B N NEVADA N B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA N A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B N OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N N NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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