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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Dec 04 - 08, 2023 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Dec 06 - 12, 2023 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Nov 28, 2023

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EST Tue November 28 2023 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 04 - 08 2023 
 
The GEFS, Canadian, and ECMWF ensemble means are in good agreement depicting a  
deep 500-hPa trough over the northeastern Pacific with enhanced Pacific flow  
throughout the western two-thirds of North America. Although the GEFS predicts  
a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) during the next ten days which typically  
correlates with below normal temperature across the central contiguous (CONUS),  
the enhanced Pacific flow is likely to result in above-normal temperatures for  
this region. Strong downsloping surface flow results in above-normal  
temperature probabilities exceeding 70 percent across the northern and central  
Great Plains. Since yesterday’s day 6 warmth times off and cold air advection  
appears stronger today, near to below-normal temperatures are favored for the  
eastern CONUS. A two-category change from above to below normal temperatures  
was necessary for parts of the Southeast.  
 
The deep trough over the northeastern Pacific and strong onshore flow supports  
increased above-normal precipitation probabilities across the Pacific  
Northwest, northern California, and northern Intermountain West. The GEFS,  
Canadian, and ECMWF ensemble means depict precipitation amounts beginning to  
decrease around day 8, December 5. Model solutions remain consistent that a low  
pressure system and trailing front progress through the eastern CONUS early  
next week which favors near to above normal precipitation along the East Coast.  
Due to a blocking ridge over the Davis Strait and Greenland, the deterministic  
ECMWF and GFS model runs and many of their ensemble members are slowing the  
departure of a low pressure system away from the Northeast. Therefore, this  
part of the East Coast has slightly larger probabilities for above-normal  
precipitation. Elsewhere, across the central and southwestern CONUS, a mean  
500-hPa ridge and the GEFS reforecast tool favors near to below normal  
precipitation.  
 
Model solutions feature anomalous 500-hPa troughing over Alaska and a mean  
surface low across the Gulf of Alaska. This pattern favors above-normal  
precipitation for southeastern Alaska and the reforecast tools also depict  
slightly elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities for parts of the  
North Slope. The 6-10 day temperature outlook for Alaska was based mostly on  
the consolidation tool which favors near to below-normal temperatures for a  
majority of the state. The 6-10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks for  
Hawaii are also based on the consolidation tool. Above-normal temperatures are  
favored for the entire Hawaiian island chain and a slight tilt toward  
below-normal precipitation is indicated for the eastern Big Island. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 35% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, and 35% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to  
good agreement among the precipitation tools for the forecast domain along with  
high forecast confidence in the temperature outlook for the western and central  
CONUS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 06 - 12 2023 The GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensemble means depict a transition to more zonal and progressive flow during week-2 but maintain positive (negative) 500-hPa height anomalies across the higher (middle) latitudes of eastern North America. The reforecast tools continue to feature increased above-normal temperature probabilities for nearly all of North America due to enhanced Pacific flow leading into week-2. However, forecast confidence in this warmer outcome is low along and to the east of the Appalachians. Based on an amplified trough near the East Coast early in week-2, a predicted negative NAO, and guidance from the analog tool derived from manual 500-hPa height blend, the week-2 temperature outlook hedged colder across the eastern CONUS, compared to the automated and consolidation tools. Near to below-normal temperatures are favored for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. A 500-hPa trough is forecast to slowly progress inland from the northeastern Pacific to the interior West which supports elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities for the Pacific Northwest, northern and central California, Great Basin, and northern to central Rockies. As the mid-level trough shifts eastward later in week-2, there is an increasing chance of surface low development across the north-central CONUS. Therefore, a slight lean towards above-normal precipitation probabilities is forecast for the increasingly dry climatological areas of the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Farther to the south, below-normal precipitation is slightly favored across southern California, Southwest, and much of the south-central CONUS. Precipitation tools continue to offer either weak or conflicting signals across the eastern CONUS where near normal precipitation is favored for most areas. Above-normal precipitation is slightly favored for Maine due to potential influence from a low pressure system through day 8 or 9. Above-normal precipitation is also slightly favored for the Florida Peninsula which is forecast to be at the base of a 500-hPa trough. A mid-level trough slightly increases chances of above-normal precipitation across eastern Alaska, while below-normal precipitation is slightly favored for the Alaska Peninsula downstream of a mean 500-hPa ridge axis. Northeasterly surface flow supports elevated below-normal temperature probabilities across southwestern Alaska, while near to above-normal temperatures are favored for the remainder of Alaska. The week-2 temperature outlook for Hawaii is based on the consolidation tool and favors warmer than normal conditions across the state. Increased above-normal precipitation probabilities are forecast for much of Hawaii which may be related to the MJO shifting east from the Indian Ocean to the west-central Pacific during the next two weeks. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 35% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 35% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to continued weak or conflicting signals among the precipitation tools across the eastern CONUS and a transition to more zonal flow. FORECASTER: Brad Pugh Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on December 21. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 19761130 - 19791109 - 20001205 - 20021206 - 20071122 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19791112 - 19931107 - 20001117 - 19761129 - 20071121 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Dec 04 - 08 2023 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Dec 06 - 12 2023 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP N N MAINE A N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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