Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
Graphics & Maps (6-10 Day)
   Surface Fcsts
   500mb Heights
     & Anomalies

   Hawaiian Outlook
     & Anomalies

   Surface Fcst
     Skill

   Model Guidance Used
   Archives [NEW]

Graphics & Maps (8-14 Day)
   Surface Fcsts
   500mb Heights
     & Anomalies

   Model Guidance Used
   Archives [NEW]

Verifications
   Charts
   Explanation

Related Products
   HPC: Day 6, Day 7
   AO/NAO/PNA/AAO

About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jun 14 - 18, 2023 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jun 16 - 22, 2023 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jun 08, 2023

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Thu June 08 2023 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 14 - 18 2023 
 
There is good confidence in the 6-10 day mid-level height pattern with the  
various model solutions agreeing on troughing across the eastern Contiguous  
United States (CONUS), although further east relative to yesterday, the  
southwestern CONUS, and the Aleutian Islands. A strong ridge remains predicted  
in the Gulf of Alaska and a sub-tropical ridge is forecast to build across the  
south-central CONUS. Meanwhile, near-normal heights early in the period may  
transition to above-normal 500-hPa heights across the Northern Tier by the end  
of the period as the Canadian high pressure redevelops. 
 
Beneath the troughing feature across the southwest CONUS, below-normal  
temperatures are favored. In the East, the weaker and further east solution for  
the mid-level trough leads to slightly enhanced chances of near to below-normal  
temperatures, with the highest chances for below-normal temperatures across  
parts of the coastal Mid-Atlantic region. Near-normal temperatures are favored  
across most of the Northeast with near normal-heights and mid-level troughing  
near-by. In the Northwest CONUS, the GEFS and ECMWF reforecast disagree on  
above or below normal temperatures chances. The ECMWF maintains an area of  
positive 500-hPa height anomalies in this region, while the GEFS expands the  
Southwest trough into the Northwest, leading to the differences in the  
temperature pattern. Therefore, near-normal temperatures are favored in the  
Northwest today. In the Northern Plains, above-normal temperatures are favored  
with the reestablishment of a Canadian ridge by the end of the period. In the  
Southern Plains and Southeast, a building subtropical ridge brings high chances  
for above-normal temperatures with the ECMWF and GEFS building heights to 594  
dm. In Alaska, onshore flow brings increased chances for below-normal  
temperatures to much of the state excluding the North Slope. 
 
The building subtropical ridge in the southern CONUS is likely to limit chances  
for precipitation across the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast. In the central and  
western Great Lakes, behind the 500-hPa troughing in the Northeast,  
below-normal precipitation remains favored. Ahead of this trough and also north  
of the subtropical ridge, above-normal precipitation is favored for parts of  
the Tennessee River Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Across the West,  
reforecast tools continue to favor elevated chances for above-normal  
precipitation beneath the trough. The highest chances for above-normal  
precipitation are in regions with low climatological precipitation across parts  
of Nevada and Utah as supported by the reforecast tools. In most of mainland  
Alaska, a slight tilt towards above-normal precipitation is favored with  
continued onshore flow into the state. However, there is a small area of  
below-normal precipitation in Southeast Alaska where positive 500-hPa heights  
may limit precipitation during the period. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 10% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered  
on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30%  
of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above Average, 4 out 5, Good  
agreement among the model solutions increases confidence offset by a pattern  
transition occurring early in the period. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 16 - 22 2023  
 
In week-2 the 500-mb trough across the eastern CONUS shifts offshore and the  
500-mb ridge across the south-central CONUS in the 6-10 period, expands north  
and east. The ECMWF has the strongest ridging but there is broad agreement  
among the model solutions for above-normal 500-hPa heights to persist through  
the period. In the West, a slight tilt towards negative 500-hPa height  
anomalies remains forecast. Ridging in the Gulf of Alaska and troughing in the  
Bering Sea persists from the 6-10 day period into Week-2. 
 
Above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the eastern two-thirds of  
the CONUS during week-2. The strongest chances remain in the Southern Plains  
and Lower-Mississippi Valley. However, with the troughing in the Northeast  
shifting offshore, above-normal temperatures are likely to build into much of  
the Mid-Atlantic, Central Appalachians, Midwest and parts of the Northeast. In  
the West, continued elevated chances for below-normal temperatures are most  
likely across much of the region with continued negative 500-hPa height  
anomalies. In southern and central Alaska, the 500-hPa height pattern continues to favor broadly below-normal temperatures across much of the area, as onshore flow and associated cloudiness may limit warm temperatures. Below-normal precipitation is favored across much of the Southern Plains and Lower-Mississippi Valley as the 500-hPa subtropical ridge remains entrenched across the region for much of the period. The GEFS and Canadian bring some chances for enhanced moisture into parts of the Gulf by the end of the period or beginning of week-3 but there remains little agreement among the models therefore near-normal precipitation is favored for Florida. Troughing across the West continues to favor unsettled weather and above-normal precipitation in the region. Across the eastern CONUS, near to slightly-below normal precipitation is favored in parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast. A slight tilt towards above-normal precipitation is favored northeast of the subtropical ridge where a system may bring some showers or storms to the Central Appalachians. In much of Alaska, continued onshore flow leads to a slight tilt towards above-normal precipitation. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 15% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 15% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out 5, there remains good agreement among the model solutions across much of the country regarding the temperature pattern offset but substantial uncertainty regarding precipitation. FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on June 15. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 19910604 - 19940519 - 19970607 - 20050525 - 19720525 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19910605 - 19970606 - 19940518 - 20050527 - 19880603 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 14 - 18 2023 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 16 - 22 2023 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: July 21, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Careers