Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Thu June 08 2023 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 14 - 18 2023 
 
There is good confidence in the 6-10 day mid-level height pattern with the  
various model solutions agreeing on troughing across the eastern Contiguous  
United States (CONUS), although further east relative to yesterday, the  
southwestern CONUS, and the Aleutian Islands. A strong ridge remains predicted  
in the Gulf of Alaska and a sub-tropical ridge is forecast to build across the  
south-central CONUS. Meanwhile, near-normal heights early in the period may  
transition to above-normal 500-hPa heights across the Northern Tier by the end  
of the period as the Canadian high pressure redevelops. 
 
Beneath the troughing feature across the southwest CONUS, below-normal  
temperatures are favored. In the East, the weaker and further east solution for  
the mid-level trough leads to slightly enhanced chances of near to below-normal  
temperatures, with the highest chances for below-normal temperatures across  
parts of the coastal Mid-Atlantic region. Near-normal temperatures are favored  
across most of the Northeast with near normal-heights and mid-level troughing  
near-by. In the Northwest CONUS, the GEFS and ECMWF reforecast disagree on  
above or below normal temperatures chances. The ECMWF maintains an area of  
positive 500-hPa height anomalies in this region, while the GEFS expands the  
Southwest trough into the Northwest, leading to the differences in the  
temperature pattern. Therefore, near-normal temperatures are favored in the  
Northwest today. In the Northern Plains, above-normal temperatures are favored  
with the reestablishment of a Canadian ridge by the end of the period. In the  
Southern Plains and Southeast, a building subtropical ridge brings high chances  
for above-normal temperatures with the ECMWF and GEFS building heights to 594  
dm. In Alaska, onshore flow brings increased chances for below-normal  
temperatures to much of the state excluding the North Slope. 
 
The building subtropical ridge in the southern CONUS is likely to limit chances  
for precipitation across the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast. In the central and  
western Great Lakes, behind the 500-hPa troughing in the Northeast,  
below-normal precipitation remains favored. Ahead of this trough and also north  
of the subtropical ridge, above-normal precipitation is favored for parts of  
the Tennessee River Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Across the West,  
reforecast tools continue to favor elevated chances for above-normal  
precipitation beneath the trough. The highest chances for above-normal  
precipitation are in regions with low climatological precipitation across parts  
of Nevada and Utah as supported by the reforecast tools. In most of mainland  
Alaska, a slight tilt towards above-normal precipitation is favored with  
continued onshore flow into the state. However, there is a small area of  
below-normal precipitation in Southeast Alaska where positive 500-hPa heights  
may limit precipitation during the period. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 10% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered  
on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30%  
of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above Average, 4 out 5, Good  
agreement among the model solutions increases confidence offset by a pattern  
transition occurring early in the period. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 16 - 22 2023  
 
In week-2 the 500-mb trough across the eastern CONUS shifts offshore and the  
500-mb ridge across the south-central CONUS in the 6-10 period, expands north  
and east. The ECMWF has the strongest ridging but there is broad agreement  
among the model solutions for above-normal 500-hPa heights to persist through  
the period. In the West, a slight tilt towards negative 500-hPa height  
anomalies remains forecast. Ridging in the Gulf of Alaska and troughing in the  
Bering Sea persists from the 6-10 day period into Week-2. 
 
Above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the eastern two-thirds of  
the CONUS during week-2. The strongest chances remain in the Southern Plains  
and Lower-Mississippi Valley. However, with the troughing in the Northeast  
shifting offshore, above-normal temperatures are likely to build into much of  
the Mid-Atlantic, Central Appalachians, Midwest and parts of the Northeast. In  
the West, continued elevated chances for below-normal temperatures are most  
likely across much of the region with continued negative 500-hPa height  
anomalies. In southern and central Alaska, the 500-hPa height pattern continues  
to favor broadly below-normal temperatures across much of the area, as onshore  
flow and associated cloudiness may limit warm temperatures. 
 
Below-normal precipitation is favored across much of the Southern Plains and  
Lower-Mississippi Valley as the 500-hPa subtropical ridge remains entrenched  
across the region for much of the period. The GEFS and Canadian bring some  
chances for enhanced moisture into parts of the Gulf by the end of the period  
or beginning of week-3 but there remains little agreement among the models  
therefore near-normal precipitation is favored for Florida. Troughing across  
the West continues to favor unsettled weather and above-normal precipitation in  
the region. Across the eastern CONUS, near to slightly-below normal  
precipitation is favored in parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast. A slight  
tilt towards above-normal precipitation is favored northeast of the subtropical  
ridge where a system may bring some showers or storms to the Central  
Appalachians. In much of Alaska, continued onshore flow leads to a slight tilt  
towards above-normal precipitation. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 15% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 15% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered  
on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30%  
of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out 5, there remains  
good agreement among the model solutions across much of the country regarding  
the temperature pattern offset but substantial uncertainty regarding  
precipitation.  
 
 
FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in  
the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
June 15. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19910604 - 19940519 - 19970607 - 20050525 - 19720525 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19910605 - 19970606 - 19940518 - 20050527 - 19880603 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jun 14 - 18 2023 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   B    A      
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A      
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     B    A      
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    B    A      
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    B      
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B      
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    A      
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    N      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    B      
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    N    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    N    N      
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N      
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N      
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N      
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    A      
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    N      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  N    A      
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A      
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    N      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jun 16 - 22 2023 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A      
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A      
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A      
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    B    A      
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    B      
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B      
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N      
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    N      
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    B      
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N      
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    N    N      
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N      
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N      
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N      
MARYLAND    N    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    N      
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    N      
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  N    N      
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    N      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$