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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Oct 09 - 13, 2022 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Oct 11 - 17, 2022 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Oct 03, 2022

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Mon October 03 2022 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 09 - 13 2022 
 
Today’s models are in good agreement in forecasting below normal 500-hPa  
heights across most of the higher latitudes of the Western Hemisphere.,  
punctuated by anomalous troughing near the Bering Strait. Farther to the south,  
anomalous ridging is forecast to consolidate over northwestern North America,  
centered near the Alaska Panhandle. Mean troughing is the most likely outcome  
farther to the east, across eastern North America. A shortwave trough is  
forecast to exit the Northeast early in the period and a second trough is  
forecast to reload near the Great Lakes toward the middle and end of the  
period. Mean troughing is also forecast over the southwestern CONUS, as  
interaction with tropical activity to the south may act to lower heights across  
this region. Slightly above normal heights are favored farther to the east  
across the Gulf Coast, associated with subtropical ridging. 
 
Above normal temperatures are likely across most of the western and central  
CONUS and southeastern Alaska, associated with anomalous ridging. The highest  
probabilities (greater than 70 percent chance) of above normal temperatures are  
indicated across the Pacific Northwest near the center of the predicted ridge.  
Conversely, there is a slight tilt toward below normal temperatures for parts  
of the Southwest, as predicted anomalous moisture across the region favors  
reduced maximum temperatures. Mean troughing predicted across eastern North  
America also favors below normal temperatures for most of the Eastern Seaboard  
westward to the Ohio Valley. 
 
An active pattern is likely across Alaska near and ahead of mean troughing  
predicted near the Bering Strait. Thus, enhanced probabilities of above normal  
precipitation are indicated across most of the state. Above normal  
precipitation is also favored across the Southwest, due to mean troughing  
associated with a potential cut-off low. Conversely, anomalous ridging leads to  
increased chances of below normal precipitation across the northwestern and  
north-central CONUS. A slight tilt toward below normal precipitation is  
indicated for most of the eastern CONUS due to predicted mean surface high  
pressure. However, a slight tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated  
for parts of the Florida Peninsula due a predicted frontal boundary nearby.   
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 35% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 30% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, 5% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and  
30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to fairly  
good model agreement, offset by the potential for a transient pattern across  
much of the forecast domain.  
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 11 - 17 2022  
 
During the 8-14 day period, strong ridging is forecast to persist across  
northwestern North America. Uncertainty increases farther to the east, as the  
00z ECMWF ensemble mean maintains a trough across eastern North America longer  
than the GEFS and Canadian ensemble mean.  Near normal heights are generally  
depicted across the Southern Tier of the CONUS. However, weak residual  
troughing is generally forecast near the Southwestern CONUS. Persistent  
troughing is forecast across western Alaska throughout the period. However, the  
mean trough axis has retrograded toward the Bering Strait relative to  
yesterday’s model consensus. 
 
Forecast persistent ridging leads to continued elevated chances of above normal  
temperatures across most of the western CONUS and southeastern Alaska. A tilt  
toward below normal temperatures continues for parts of the Southwest and upper  
Rio Grande Valley due to the potential for anomalous moisture and cloud cover.  
A transient pattern is forecast over the central CONUS, leading to only modest  
probabilities across this region. However, a slight tilt toward above normal  
temperatures are indicated for the Southern Plains ahead of a trough predicted  
over the Southwest.  Weakly enhanced probabilities of below normal temperatures  
are indicated for the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic States, the Ohio Valley, and  
parts of the Great Lakes, due to predicted mean troughing. Below normal  
temperatures are also favored for parts of western Alaska due to persistent  
troughing predicted across the region. 
 
An active pattern, associated with a mean trough near the Bering Strait, is  
expected to continue across most of Alaska, favoring above normal  
precipitation. Expansive ridging is likely downstream, increasing chances for a  
drier than normal pattern for the northwestern and north-central CONUS. Mean  
surface high pressure is forecast across much of the east, leading to a slight  
tilt toward below normal precipitation from the Mississippi Valley eastward to  
parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A slight tilt toward above normal  
precipitation continues for the southern Florida Peninsula, due to the  
potential for enhanced easterly flow and associated frontal boundaries south of  
the predicted mean surface high pressure. Above normal precipitation is favored  
for the Southwest and Southern High Plains due to the potential for residual  
moisture to persist across these regions into the week-2 period. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  
Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below Average, 2 out of 5, due to  
fairly large model disagreements across much of the central and eastern CONUS. 
 
FORECASTER: Scott H 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in  
the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
October 20. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
20090913 - 19861017 - 20010929 - 19921004 - 20080928 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
20010929 - 19921003 - 20090913 - 20001010 - 19511007 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Oct 09 - 13 2022 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A      
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B      
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N      
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A      
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    N    B      
ARKANSAS    N    B     LOUISIANA   N    B     WISCONSIN   N    B      
ILLINOIS    N    B     MISSISSIPPI N    B     MICHIGAN    N    B      
INDIANA     N    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B      
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     N    B     NEW YORK    B    B      
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    B      
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B      
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  B    B      
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B      
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    B     GEORGIA     B    B      
FL PNHDL    N    B     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A      
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    A      
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Oct 11 - 17 2022 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N      
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B      
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N      
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A      
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    N    B      
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   N    B     WISCONSIN   N    B      
ILLINOIS    N    B     MISSISSIPPI N    B     MICHIGAN    B    B      
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B      
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     N    B     NEW YORK    B    N      
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       N    N      
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B      
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  B    B      
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B      
N CAROLINA  B    N     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     N    N      
FL PNHDL    N    N     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A      
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  N    A      
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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