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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: May 01 - 05, 2019 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: May 03 - 09, 2019 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Apr 25, 2019

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Thu April 25 2019 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 01 - 05 2019 
 
Today's GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean solutions are in good agreement on the  
500-hPa flow pattern predicted across most of the forecast domain. An amplified  
ridge and well above normal heights are expected over Alaska, with an upstream  
trough and near to below normal heights anticipated over the western Bering  
Sea. A closed mid-level Low over west-central Canada is predicted to extend  
southwest towards California and the adjacent Eastern Pacific, associated with  
below normal 500-hPa heights. A ridge and well above normal heights are  
forecast over the Eastern CONUS. East of Newfoundland, a very deep anomalous  
trough is depicted by the ensemble means and deterministic runs of the GFS and  
ECMWF models, which is expected to have a lingering effect on New England  
during the 6-10 day period. 
 
The mid-level ridge and associated well above normal heights predicted over  
Alaska favor above normal temperatures over approximately the western half to  
two-thirds of the 49th state. Probabilities for above normal temperatures  
exceed 60% over the extreme southwestern mainland and the Alaska Peninsula.  
Relatively cool low-level flow from Canada favors below normal temperatures  
over parts of far eastern Alaska. A predicted trough and associated below  
normal heights favor below normal temperatures from the northern and central  
Great Basin eastward across the northern and central Rockies, the Great Plains  
as far south as Nebraska, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Upper Great  
Lakes region. Odds for below normal temperatures exceed 60% for most of  
Montana. This broad area of favored below normal temperatures extends farther  
east to include northern portions of both New York and New England, based on  
the deep trough east of Newfoundland and associated northerly anomalous flow.  
The predicted 500-hPa ridge and associated positive height anomalies over the  
Eastern CONUS tilt the odds towards above normal temperatures from the Southern  
Plains eastward and northeastward to the Atlantic coast, from southern New York  
to Florida. Odds for above normal temperatures exceed 70% over much of the  
Southeast. 
 
The ridge and associated above normal heights predicted over Alaska favor below  
normal precipitation for most of the state, with near to above normal  
precipitation favored along the extreme western coast of Alaska including the  
Aleutians. Below normal precipitation is favored for Washington state, and  
portions of Oregon and northern California, in the subsidence region behind a  
mean trough nearby. For most of the remainder of the CONUS, odds favor above  
normal precipitation, with probabilities exceeding 60% over portions of the  
Southern Plains. This very widespread area of favored above normal  
precipitation is based on the trough predicted over the far West, and the  
expected inflow of low-level Gulf moisture across most of the Central and  
Eastern CONUS. Surface high pressure moving off the Southeast coast is expected  
to bring moist easterly flow to the Florida Peninsula, favoring above normal  
precipitation there. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered  
on Day 8, and 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to  
good agreement among available models and tools. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 03 - 09 2019  
 
During the week-2 period, the 500-hPa flow pattern is forecast to deamplify,  
resulting in very modest height anomalies over the CONUS and much of Alaska.  
There were considerable differences between temperature tools across the  
southwestern quarter of the Lower 48 states, regarding the spatial coverage and  
magnitude of favored below normal temperatures. Today's temperature outlook is  
a compromise between the D+11 analog temperature probabilities from both the  
manual and automated blends, which seemed to be too cold, and other tools such  
as the bias-corrected European ensemble mean temperatures, which appear to be  
too warm. Today's temperature outlook looks most similar to the temperature  
Consolidation tool. The week-2 precipitation outlook is similar to the 6-10 day  
precipitation outlook, except a wetter scenario is favored across the Pacific  
Coast states, due to the trend towards predicted flattening of the 500-hPa flow  
pattern and increasingly onshore flow later in week-2. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered  
on Day 11, and 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Near average, 3 out of 5, due to  
generally good agreement between available models and tools, offset by  
uncertainty associated with a circulation pattern that is predicted to become  
increasingly zonal. 
 
FORECASTER: Anthony A 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1981-2010 base period means for  
temperature...precipitation...and 500-hpa heights as reference in the climate  
outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on May  
16. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19640412 - 19860420 - 19700502 - 19540409 - 20020412 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19540414 - 19700503 - 19640412 - 20020412 - 19540409 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for May 01 - 05 2019 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      N    B     NRN CALIF   N    B      
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A      
W MONTANA   B    N     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A      
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    N    A      
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A      
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A      
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    A    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    N    A      
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    N      
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    B      
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  N    B      
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    N    B      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for May 03 - 09 2019 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  N    N     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   N    A      
SRN CALIF   N    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      N    A      
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A      
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    B    A      
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A      
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A      
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A      
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    A    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A      
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    A      
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    N      
MASS        B    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A      
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    B      
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B      
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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