Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EST Sat March 07 2026 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 13 - 17 2026 
 
The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts generally agree on the  
mean large-scale circulation pattern over North America for the 6-10 day  
period, but there are some differences in the details across the Contiguous  
United States (CONUS) and underlying variations in the pattern through the  
period. All ensemble means predict a strong mid-level ridge and positive  
500-hPa height anomalies over the western Aleutians and Bering Sea, extending  
to western Mainland Alaska. In the manual blend, the greatest 500-hPa height  
anomalies are centered over the westernmost Aleutians, where they exceed +33 dm  
near a 558 dm closed high at 500-hPa. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies are  
limited to the far western tier of Mainland Alaska in today's forecast, with  
subnormal 500-hPa heights covering most of the state. South of this feature,  
significant negative 500-hPa height anomalies are centered northwest of Hawaii,  
with height anomalies reaching at least -18 dm in the manual blend. Farther  
east, a mid-level trough is from western Canada through southern Alaska and  
into the North Pacific. Models depict this feature as broader, somewhat more  
amplified, and centered slightly farther west than yesterday. Negative 500-hPa  
height anomalies stretch well eastward through the central tier of Canada, with  
the greatest negative anomalies (near -22 dm in the manual blend) centered  
south of Hudson Bay. A mid-level trough is forecast to extend southward from  
this broad, flat area of negative 500-hPa height anomalies into part of the  
interior eastern CONUS. How far south this feature will extend is still not  
certain; however, models have shifted toward a more amplified solution, and  
this is reflected in the manual blend which takes negative 500-hPa anomalies  
farther south than yesterday, and keeps heights over Deep South closer to  
normal. This is more consistent with yesterday's Canadian ensemble (ECENS)  
mean, which was favored. Meanwhile, a fairly amplified 500-hPa ridge is  
expected to cover the eastern North Pacific and some portion of the  
west-central to southwestern CONUS. Models are in better agreement on the  
strength and position of this mean feature than yesterday, with the GEFS mean  
shifting toward the other, more amplified ensemble means. Models support a  
slowly progressive and slightly amplifying pattern over the course of the  
period, with a mid-level trough digging into the eastern CONUS from the north,  
and the 500-hPa ridge drifting into the western CONUS from the adjacent Pacific  
Ocean. At the surface, this supports a low surface pressure center initially  
near New England to track northeastward early in the period, with a trailing  
frontal system moving through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast which is expected  
to act as a focus for heavier precipitation. 
 
The 500-hPa ridge building into the western CONUS strongly supports  
above-normal temperatures across the southwestern quarter of the Lower-48, with  
enhanced chances for above-normal temperatures reaching as far north as  
southern Idaho and the Oregon/Washington Border. The odds for warmer than  
normal conditions exceed 80 percent in parts of the Southwest. Downstream,  
enhanced chances for above-normal temperatures are limited to Florida and some  
adjacent parts of the Deep South, consistent with the mid-level trough  
amplifying into the eastern CONUS. This is reflected in the raw and reforecast  
temperature tools from the Canadian ensemble (CNENS), ECENS, and GEFS, all of  
which depict temperatures near or below normal reaching considerably farther  
south than yesterday. The reforecasts keep areas from the Ohio River southward  
closer to normal on average while the raw output favors subnormal temperatures  
there; the cooler solution is preferred, being more consistent with the  
amplifying mid-level trough. Farther north, the strong 500-hPa ridge centered  
over the western Aleutians in concert with negative 500-hPa height anomalies  
over central and especially eastern parts of Alaska supports arctic high  
pressure prevailing across most of the state. This supports a forecast favoring  
subnormal temperatures statewide, with chances exceeding 70 percent over most  
of the southern half of the state. In contrast, warmer than normal conditions  
are strongly favored across Hawaii, consistent with the consolidation, and with  
the forecast southwesterly mid-level flow and the strong mid-level trough  
located northwest of the state.  
 
Higher than normal precipitation totals are anticipated across the northern  
tier of the CONUS as well as the Ohio Valley and parts of the Southeast. The  
best odds in the CONUS for above-normal amounts (above 50 percent) are across  
the Northwest and the northern Rockies under a strong fetch of air originating  
in the North Pacific. The frontal boundary moving slowly through the  
northeastern CONUS supports heavier than normal precipitation across that  
region, with chances exceeding 40 percent across the eastern Great Lakes and  
Northeast. Subnormal precipitation is favored from California and the Southwest  
eastward into the Great Plains, near and downstream from the positive 500-hPa  
anomaly center moving into the region. Across Alaska, the pattern and the  
relatively dry March climatology favors only nominally increased chances for  
below-normal precipitation in the southwestern quarter of the state closest to  
the mid-level ridge. Marginally enhanced chances for heavier than normal  
precipitation exist over the southeastern Mainland to the east of the 500-hPa  
trough, with better odds for abnormally heavy precipitation across Southeastern  
Alaska near a mean surface low pressure center over the northeastern Gulf of  
Alaska. Meanwhile, the strong mean trough northwest of Hawaii heavily favors  
above-normal precipitation for the period, consistent with most guidance and  
the consolidation. The likelihood of above-normal precipitation exceeds 80  
percent statewide. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 15% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 22% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, 8% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and  
55% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to  
general agreement among the tools on the mean 500-hPa height pattern and better  
agreement than yesterday on the day-to-day evolution of features, offset by  
differences in some of the raw and statistically-derived temperature and  
precipitation tools, particularly in the eastern CONUS. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 15 - 21 2026  
 
Ensemble mean forecasts for the 8-14 day period from the 0Z ECENS, GEFS, and  
CNENS are generally consistent in the placement of 500-hPa features, but there  
are differences in the evolution of some  individual features. The largest  
uncertainty is noted across Alaska. Most of the guidance shows the strong  
500-hPa ridge west of Alaska retrogressing somewhat and slowly weakening. This  
allows subnormal 500-hPa heights to encompass the entire state, and keeps the  
downstream mid-level trough axis essentially in place, but while model  
solutions are similar with the placement of this feature, they are quite varied  
with its strength. The GEFS and CNENS means are weakest, showing 500-hPa mean  
height anomalies of -8 to -10 dm from east-central through south-central  
Alaska, and closer to normal elsewhere. The dynamical European (ECMWF) and GFS  
models are much stronger, showing mean 500-hPa height anomalies below -14dm  
across at least the eastern half of Mainland Alaska. The ECENS mean is a  
compromise of the aforementioned solutions, and is preferred since it reflects  
a compromise of the other solutions. Farther south, the strong negative 500-hPa  
height anomaly centered northwest of Hawaii is expected to lift northwestward  
away from the state while progressively weakening over the course of week-2.  
Across the CONUS, the strong mid-level ridge covering the western CONUS is  
expected to drift eastward and expand northward somewhat while the downstream  
mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS begins to gradually deamplify and lift  
off to the north-northeast. Models are in good agreement on the evolution of  
the mid-level ridge over the western CONUS, but there is more uncertainty  
regarding the mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS. The GEFS and CNENS means  
maintain more amplitude and keep the trough axis farther west than the ECENS  
mean, which is quicker to retract this feature northward into eastern Canada.  
The more amplified solutions are in the majority and are more consistent with  
the evolution expected during the 6- to 10-day period, and are thus favored in  
this forecast. 
 
The mid-level ridge in the West strongly supports enhanced chances for  
above-normal temperatures centered over the western half of the CONUS, reaching  
as far southeast as the Lower Mississippi Valley. Chances for a  
warmer-than-normal week-2 exceed 70 percent across a broad area covering  
central and western sections of the Four Corners Region, the Great Basin, and  
California, with chances better than 40 percent reaching northward to the  
Canadian border. Farther east, subnormal temperatures are forecast in  
association with the mid-level trough moving through the eastern CONUS. Odds  
for unusually cold conditions are greatest (over 60 percent) over central and  
western sections of the Northeast, where negative 500-hPa heights are expected  
to be most persistent. Arctic high pressure continues to favor unusually cold  
weather across Alaska, with odds exceeding 70 percent over southwestern  
sections of the Mainland. Farther south, consistent with the consolidation and  
the expected southwesterly mid-level flow, warmer than normal conditions remain  
favored across Hawaii.  
 
The 500-hPa trough affecting the eastern CONUS favors above-normal  
precipitation near and downstream from the mean position of the axis,  
specifically the eastern Great Lakes Region, the Northeast, and the  
Mid-Atlantic. Farther west, along the northern fringe of the mid-level ridge in  
the western CONUS, surplus precipitation is favored from the northern High  
Plains westward, with odds exceeding 50 percent in northern Washington and  
adjacent areas. Farther south and southeast into the mean mid-level ridge,  
subnormal precipitation is favored from the Southwest and most of California  
through a large part of the Plains, with chances for dryness of at least 50  
percent in Arizona and southern California. Enhanced likelihoods of subnormal  
precipitation cover much of western Mainland Alaska downstream from the  
slowly-retrograding strong mid-level ridge. In contrast, wetter than normal  
weather seems most probable in southeastern parts of Alaska downstream from the  
quasi-stationary mid-level trough, with odds topping 50 percent in lower parts  
of Southeast Alaska under strong southerly flow from the North Pacific. Wet  
weather is strongly favored across Hawaii, although precipitation is expected  
to gradually decrease in coverage and intensity over the course of week-2. This  
is consistent with the anticipated 500-hPa trough weakening and drifting away  
from the state. Still, the general pattern supports a likelihood for  
above-normal precipitation exceeding 50 percent statewide. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 13% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 12% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on  
Day 11, 25% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 50% of  
Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, with  
general agreement on the 500-hPa height pattern forecast, offset by differences  
on the temperature and precipitation forecasts for the eastern CONUS associated  
with uncertainties regarding the mid-level trough affecting the area. 
 
FORECASTER: Rich Tinker 
 
Notes: 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is  
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below  
  
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer 
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. 
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more 
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. 
  
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being  
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") 
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of 
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. 
  
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will  
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally  
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry  
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a  
forecast of little or no precipitation.  
  
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as   
reference in the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
March 19. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 
20070321 - 19970219 - 20030219 - 20080303 - 19910222 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 
20070320 - 19910221 - 19970217 - 20080303 - 20220317 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Mar 13 - 17 2026 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     A    A      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B      
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A      
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B      
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B      
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    N    B      
ARKANSAS    N    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   B    A      
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI N    N     MICHIGAN    B    A      
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A      
TENNESSEE   N    N     ALABAMA     N    N     NEW YORK    B    A      
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A      
MASS        B    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A      
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A      
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A      
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    N      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    N      
AK ALEUTIAN B    B     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    N      
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Mar 15 - 21 2026 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B      
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N      
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B      
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B      
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    A    B      
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   B    N      
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    B    A      
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    N      
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     N    N     NEW YORK    B    A      
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A      
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A      
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A      
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A      
N CAROLINA  B    N     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N      
FL PNHDL    N    N     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N      
AK ALEUTIAN B    B     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    N      
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$