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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: Jul 01 - 05, 2025 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jul 03 - 09, 2025 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jun 25, 2025 |
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Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Wed June 25 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 01 - 05 2025
Today's model solutions are in good agreement on the predicted 500-hPa
circulation pattern across North America and surrounding regions during the
6-10 day period. The ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble means predict a
progressive pattern during the period. The manual 500-hPa height blend is based
on the ensemble means from the GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian models, weighing the
ECMWF model greater due to recent model skill. The resultant manual blend
features an amplified mid-level ridge over the northwest Pacific, while
mid-level troughs are predicted over the Gulf of Alaska and western Aleutian
Islands. An amplified ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast
over the northwestern contiguous United States (CONUS) and a trough with weaker
500-hPa height anomalies over the northeastern CONUS. Another trough is
forecast to develop over southern California. Slightly above-normal 500-hPa
heights are predicted across Hawaii.
Below normal temperatures are favored for parts of southeastern Mainland Alaska
and Southeast Alaska, under a predicted trough. Above normal temperatures are
favored over most of central and northern Mainland Alaska, consistent with the
Auto temperature blend of model tools and the temperature consolidation of
calibrated ECMWF and GEFS forecasts. Near to above normal temperatures are
likely over most of the CONUS, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies.
Probabilities for above normal temperatures exceed 70 percent for parts of the
Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin under the predicted ridge. Below
normal temperatures are favored for southeastern Arizona, New Mexico,
southeastern Colorado, southwestern Kasas, western Oklahoma, and western Texas,
consistent with the Auto blend and increased cloudiness due to the flow of
moisture into the region. The temperature consolidation favors above normal
temperatures across most of the Hawaiian Islands, associated with above average
sea surface temperatures in the region.
Above normal precipitation is slightly favored across Mainland Alaska and the
eastern Aleutians, consistent with the precipitation consolidation, ahead of
the predicted trough. Near to above normal precipitation is slightly favored
for the West Coast of the CONUS, ahead of a trough later in the period. Above
normal precipitation is favored over much of the remainder of the CONUS,
consistent with the precipitation consolidation and the Auto blend.
Probabilities for above normal precipitation exceed 70 percent for parts of the
Southwest monsoon region with predicted moisture flow into the region. Above
normal precipitation is also favored across the Rockies into the Plains and
most areas east of the Mississippi, consistent with model precipitation
forecasts and the flow of tropical moisture into these regions. Above normal
precipitation is favored across Hawaii, consistent with the precipitation
consolidation and above average sea surface temperatures in the region.
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: About-average, 3 out of 5, due to
good agreement between models on the mean mid-level height pattern, with
uncertainty related to a progressive height forecast and differences between
uncalibrated and calibrated temperature and precipitation model forecast tools.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 09 2025
Ensemble mean forecasts for the 500-hPa height pattern over North America
during the 8-14 day period remain in relatively good agreement, while the
overall pattern evolves and deamplifies later in the forecast period. In the
manual blend of model forecasts, a ridge and amplified positive 500-hPa height
anomalies persist over the northwestern Pacific, while a trough is forecast
over the Bering Sea, the Aleutians, and southwestern Mainland Alaska. The
predicted ridge and center of positive 500-hPa height anomalies, over the
northwestern CONUS in the 6-10 day period, progresses eastward slightly over
the Great Lakes region in week 2. Troughs are forecast over parts of the
northeastern CONUS and southern California. Slightly above-normal 500-hPa
heights are predicted across Hawaii.
Below normal temperatures are favored for the eastern Aleutians, southern
Mainland Alaska, and Southeast Alaska in the 8-14 day period, under the
predicted trough and slightly negative 500-hPa height anomalies during much of
the period. Above normal temperatures continue to be favored for northern
interior Mainland Alaska in week 2, consistent with the Auto blend of model
tools and the temperature consolidation. With the deamplification of mid-level
height anomalies over the southern and eastern CONUS in week 2, uncertainty
increases in the temperature outlook for these regions leading to an increase
in the area of favored near normal temperatures. Above normal temperatures
continue to be likely for most of the northwestern and north-central CONUS,
under a predicted ridge and associated positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Below
normal temperatures are favored for parts of the Southwest with enhanced
moisture flow into the region and cloudiness. Above normal temperatures
continue to be favored for much of the Gulf Coast and Southeast Atlantic coast
regions, consistent with the Auto blend and temperature consolidation. Above
normal temperatures are favored across most of the Hawaiian Islands, consistent
with the temperature consolidation.
Above normal precipitation continues to be slightly favored across Mainland
Alaska and Southeast Alaska ahead of predicted troughs during the period. Near
to above normal precipitation remains slightly favored for the West Coast of
the CONUS in week 2, ahead of a predicted trough early in the period.
Probabilities of above normal precipitation are much enhanced for the Southwest
region in the 8-14 day period with continued moisture flow into the region from
the tropics. Above normal precipitation continues to be favored for the Great
Plains, and most of the eastern CONUS in week 2, consistent with southerly flow
of moisture into these regions. Above normal precipitation is favored across
Hawaii in week 2, consistent with the precipitation consolidation and the Auto
blend of precipitation tools.
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to
good overall agreement on the mean mid-level height forecast, offset by weak
signals in the precipitation and temperature tools for many areas, and a
deamplification of mid-level height anomalies over many regions in model
forecasts.
FORECASTER: Luke H
Notes:
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f"). Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
Probability of N is always < 40%.
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches"). Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
Probability of N is always < 40%.
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
July 17.
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20040608 - 19520626 - 20050627 - 19990605 - 19840611
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19990604 - 20040607 - 20050627 - 19520629 - 19840611
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 01 - 05 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 03 - 09 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A N
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
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Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion,
Surface Forecasts,
500mb Heights and Anomalies,
Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill,
Model Guidance Used
Our Mission,
Who We Are,
CPC Information,
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