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610 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster. Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.




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Prognostic Discussions

Valid: Jul 27  31, 2019 (610 Day Outlook) Valid: Jul 29  Aug 04, 2019 (814 Day Outlook) Issued: Jul 21, 2019 

Prognostic Discussions for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks.
NWS Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2019
There is no forecaster message written on weekends.
Notes:
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: Aabove Nnear normal Bbelow
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f"). Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
Probability of N is always < 40%.
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches"). Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
Probability of N is always < 40%.
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions  there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero  especially during the dry seasons. In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.
The climate prediction center uses 19812010 base period means for
temperature...precipitation...and 500hpa heights as reference in the climate
outlooks.
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19880712  19590703  19990701  19910720  19770717
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19990704  19590702  19530722  19680721  19880712
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 27  31, 2019
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA N B WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 29  Aug 04, 2019
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA N B WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A  ABOVE N  NEAR NORMAL A  ABOVE N  NEAR MEDIAN
B  BELOW B  BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES  WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES  ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06  ON AFOS AS
NFDPMDMRD.
$$


Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion,
Surface Forecasts,
500mb Heights and Anomalies,
Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill,
Model Guidance Used
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