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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Dec 06 - 10, 2021 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Dec 08 - 14, 2021 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Nov 30, 2021

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EST Tue November 30 2021 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 06 - 10 2021 
 
Today’s model solutions are in fairly good agreement in depicting an amplified  
500-hPa flow pattern across the forecast domain. In the mean 500-hPa mid-level  
height field, strong ridging near the southwestern Aleutians is forecast,  
leading to anticipated troughing downstream across Alaska. Above normal height  
are likely farther to the south across much of the western CONUS and parts of  
the central CONUS. Mean troughing is predicted along the Northeast to Great  
Lakes region with below normal 500-hPa heights over the northeastern CONUS. 
 
Troughing forecast over much of Alaska leads to increased chances of below  
normal temperatures across most of the state. Ridging over the western CONUS  
during the period favors above normal temperatures from the West Coast,  
eastward across most of the central CONUS, and to much of the Southeast and  
Mid-Atlantic. Conversely, troughing over the northeastern CONUS leads to  
increased chances of near to below normal temperatures over parts of the Great  
Lakes region and Northeast. 
 
The potential for enhanced Pacific flow increases chances of above-normal  
precipitation over much of the northwestern CONUS and most of the Northern  
Plains. Positive height anomalies are expected across much of the western and  
central CONUS during the period, favoring below normal precipitation over parts  
of the Central and Southern Plains. Near to above normal precipitation is  
favored over most of the Midwest, Northeast and parts of the Tennessee Valley  
due to the forecast troughing over the region. Above normal precipitation is  
also favored for central and southern Alaska related to mean surface low  
pressures predicted over the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska. Offshore flow to  
the northwest of this low leads to increased chances of below normal  
precipitation across northern Mainland Alaska. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 15% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 15% of Today's GFS Superensemble Mean centered  
on Day 8, 15% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on Day 8, 30% of Today's  
0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Today's operational 0z  
ECMWF centered on Day 8, and 15% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered  
on Day 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to  
a good agreement on a predicted amplified 500-hPa flow pattern early in the  
period, offset by increased uncertainty later in the period associated. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 08 - 14 2021  
 
In the week-2 period, fair agreement is seen among the model solutions. Models  
are in agreement on a slight de-amplification of the overall pattern across  
much of the CONUS for the period. Troughing over Alaska is likely to persist  
into week-2 but with high uncertainty as to the evolution of this feature later  
in the period.  
 
Increased chances of below normal temperatures are forecast in week-2 for  
Alaska underneath predicted below normal 500-hPa heights. Forecast near to  
above normal 500-hPa heights lead to increased chances of above normal  
temperatures across much of the CONUS, with the highest probabilities over  
parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. This is also consistent  
with the consolidation forecast tool.  
 
Above normal precipitation is favored across the northwestern CONUS, eastward  
to parts of the Northern Rockies and Great Basin, due to enhanced Pacific flow  
predicted across much of the Northwest Coast. Near to below normal  
precipitation is favored over parts of the Great Plains due to the forecast  
above normal heights. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored over parts  
of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Midwest and Northeast due to  
forecast frontal passages. Probabilities of above normal precipitation are  
slightly elevated for most of central and southern Mainland Alaska, and the  
Alaska Panhandle, underneath mean cyclonic mid-level flow. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 15% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 15% of Today's GFS Superensemble Mean  
centered on Day 11, 10% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on Day 11, 40%  
of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20% of Today's 0z  
Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, fair  
agreement among forecast precipitation and temperature fields, offset by the  
potential for a pattern change during the period. 
 
FORECASTER: Y. Fan 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in  
the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
December 16. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19631128 - 19531128 - 19881130 - 19591208 - 20081124 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19631127 - 19881129 - 19531128 - 20071109 - 20081124 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Dec 06 - 10 2021 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A      
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    A      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B      
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N      
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   N    A      
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    N    A      
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N      
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    N    N      
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N      
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N      
PENN        N    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N      
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N      
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    N      
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  N    A      
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Dec 08 - 14 2021 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A      
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N      
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N      
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N      
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N      
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    N      
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    N      
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    N      
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N      
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N      
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N      
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N      
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A      
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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