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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Feb 21 - 25, 2019 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Feb 23 - Mar 01, 2019 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Feb 15, 2019

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST FRI FEBRUARY 15 2019 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 21 - 25 2019 
 
THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF,  
GEFS, AND THE CANADIAN MODELS REGARDING THE 6-10 DAY 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL  
HEIGHT PATTERN. PERSISTENT RIDGING AND STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE  
PREDICTED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COVER  
MUCH OF THE CONUS, FAVORING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FOR THE WESTERN AND  
CENTRAL CONUS, WITH THE STRONGEST NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OVER THE ROCKIES. POSITIVE  
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED EAST OF THE TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.  
STRONG NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND TROUGING ARE FORECAST OVER THE ATLANTIC  
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF ALASKA  
EXCEPT BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE DOWNSTREAM  
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. 
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXISTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE  
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE INFLUENCED BY TROUGHING.  
FARTHER EAST, ENHANCED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES REMAIN OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST AND THE MIDDLE-ATLANTIC STATES ASSOCIATED WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT  
ANOMALIES. INCREASED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW RELATED TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST MAINLAND AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE WHERE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS FAVORS ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS, PARTICULARLY THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AS DISTURBANCES ARE FAVORED TO BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY AREAS. ENHANCED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMICAL TOOLS. A STORM TRACK OVER TOP THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE FAVORS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING NEAR OR OVER ALASKA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD RESULTING IN ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS AND A PREDICTED AMPLIFIED PATTERN, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN CONUS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 23 - MAR 01, 2019 THE WEEK-2 PATTERN MAINTAINS BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD TROUGHING, AND POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES IN THE EASTERN CONUS. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE STILL NOTED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE-LIKE PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR ALASKA AS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS FOR WEEK-2 AS BOTH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ENHANCED NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES, ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. ALASKA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO HAVE ELEVATED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND AND THE ALEUTIANS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE BEHIND THE TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, DUE TO CONTINUED LONGWAVE TROUGHING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD THE TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE WEST COAST, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS DUE TO A PERSISTENT STORM TRACK. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TOOLS FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EAST DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL TOOLS REGARDING TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. FORECASTER: QIN Z NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19690129 - 20010208 - 20080126 - 19560219 - 20090212
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19960221 - 19690129 - 20080127 - 19560222 - 20090228 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR FEB 21 - 25 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR FEB 23 - MAR 01, 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE B A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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