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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Apr 24 - 28, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Apr 26 - May 02, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Apr 18, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT FRI APRIL 18 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 24 - 28 2014

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA 
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE NCEP GEFS AND ECMWF MODEL ENSEMBLE 
MEANS FORECAST A SPLIT FLOW AT THE PACIFIC COAST WITH A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE 
CENTRAL U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER CANADA. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE IN CONTRAST 
FORECASTS A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL U.S. AND OVER CANADA. THE OFFICIAL 
500-HPA HEIGHT-BLEND FORECAST WEIGHTS THE CONSENSUS FORECAST OF THE ECMWF AND 
NCEP MODELS MORE THAN THE CANADIAN MODEL. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW 
NORMAL OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE 
FAR NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS.

AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE ABOVE NORMAL 
WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WHERE HEIGHTS ARE EITHER ABOVE NORMAL OR THERE IS 
SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO MOST LIKELY TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN ALASKA 
DUE TO ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN 
MOST REGIONS EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS IN AREAS IMPACTED BY A PREDICTED 
TROUGH. SOUTHERN TEXAS AND PARTS OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA ARE EXCEPTIONS WHERE 
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.

TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD IS MOST LIKELY TO BE ABOVE MEDIAN TOTALS IN 
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN ALASKAN PANHANDLE AHEAD OF STRONG 
PACIFIC FLOW AND ALSO FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND IN THE 
CENTRAL AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE EAST, DUE TO THE PREDICTED TROUGH 
OVER THESE REGIONS. THERE IS AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST WITH A PREDICTION OF 
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR WESTERN ALASKA WITH A PREDICTED 
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA.
 
MODEL OF THE DAY: 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER NORTH AMERICA.  
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 26 - MAY 02, 2014 

THE ECMWF AND NCEP MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEK-2 FORECAST, WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN DIFFERS 
FROM THE CONSENSUS. THE ECMWF AND NCEP GEFS MODELS WERE EQUALLY WEIGHTED TO 
MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST, WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE WAS NOT 
USED. UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST IN THE WEEK-2 
FORECAST, WHILE THE PREDICTED TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE EASTERN U.S., WHERE 
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST.

THE PROBABILITIES THAT AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST 
HAVE INCREASED IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST. 
PROBABILITIES THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL CONTINUE 
TO BE ENHANCED FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE 
TEMPERATURE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL HAS INCREASED FOR THE GULF 
COAST.

THE LIKELIHOOD THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOVE MEDIAN AMOUNTS INTO THE 8-14 
DAY PERIOD HAS DECREASED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY 
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE BELOW MEDIAN TOTALS IN THE 
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIPITATION 
AMOUNTS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE ABOVE MEDIAN AMOUNTS IN THE EAST AND IN WESTERN 
ALASKA.
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS 
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED 
ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 
50 
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE  
TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD. 
 
FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY  
15 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19940405 - 20040421 - 19930427 - 19940429 - 19690416
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19930427 - 19940430 - 19690415 - 19940404 - 20040421 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR APR 24 - 28 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN N A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR APR 26 - MAY 02, 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B N IOWA N N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B A RHODE IS B N PENN N A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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