CPC Experimental Long-Lead Outlook

Editorial Policy

Researchers from other research and academic centers, both within NOAA and extramural, who are interested in contributing to this Bulletin are invited to do so. A variety of forecasting techniques would add value and interest to the Bulletin. Prospective participants should read the following guidelines to determine if their contribution meets a minimum standard of credibility.

Guidelines for Contributions

A. Time Scale, Lead, and Real-Time Nature of Forecasts

For the purposes of this Bulletin, we define the forecast averaging time scale as at least one month in duration, and extending to as much as 3 or more months. Thus, daily weather variability is to be essentially excluded, and short-term climate variability emphasized. Occasionally, very long time-averages such as one year or longer would be interesting (e.g., effects of greenhouse gases, volcanoes).

The long-lead aspect means that the forecast target period will not begin at the time of the forecast, but at a future time at which numerical weather prediction skill would, on average, be minimal. Two weeks of lead time appears to be a reasonable minimum for satisfaction of this condition. Leads of much longer duration are heartily encouraged, if warranted.

Forecasts are to be of real-time nature, i.e., the target period must not yet have occurred. This is in contrast to hindcasts, for which observed data for the target period are available at the time of the forecast.

B. Acceptability

In order that the forecasts be acceptable, they must ideally satisfy the following criteria:

A limited number of forecasts will appear in any individual issue. The editors at the Climate Prediction Center will make a selection from among the contributed forecasts, based on which ones best meet the above criteria.

C. Forecast Target

Forecasts for temperature or precipitation over the United States mainland are especially encouraged. More localized forecasts, such as for surface climate for New England, California, or outside the U.S. are acceptable on a more occasional basis. Forecasts for fields clearly related to U.S. surface temperature or precipitation, such as geopotential height or tropical sea surface temperature, are also acceptable. All forecasts must be long-lead and on a climate time scale, as defined in item (a).

D. Narrative Summary of Method, and Its Estimated Skill

Accompanying a long-lead forecast, there should appear a brief description or explanation of the method employed, which may be either ongoing or new. While a few specific formulations or other technicalities are appropriate, references to refereed or informal publications should be made in most instances. Estimates of forecast skill must be reported, using tools that minimize artificial skill (e.g., cross-validation, or independent forecast testing). Dynamical, empirical or hybrid forecasting techniques are eligible.

E. Verification

The Climate Prediction Center will not be responsible for verifying forecasts appearing in the Bulletin, except its own. It is the contributor's duty to verify his/her own forecasts using one or more common methods.


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