This Bulletin, issued by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), is intended as an opportunity to present experimental forecasts with a long lead time. In the process we hope to achieve an exchange of ideas on long lead forecasting, which would serve as a mechanism to stimulate research in this area. The frequency of issuance is quarterly. The forecasts are mainly intended for the surface climate in the United States, such as a forecast of winter U.S. surface temperature 6 months or a year in advance. Forecasts for other aspects of climate, such as ENSO, the hurricane season severity, or surface climate in other parts of the world are also welcome.
Long range forecasting, with or without a lead time, is in an embryonic stage of development. In general, forecasting skill is currently at a minimal level. Some recent progress has been made with dynamical approaches to such forecasts, using either simple or complex, coupled ocean-atmosphere or uncoupled atmospheric GCMs. A comparable level of achievement has also been attainable using empirical methods.
It is our goal that the next several decades will bring a major improvement in understanding and in forecast skill. In the process of this progressive advancement in knowledge and ability, a bulletin such as this can help focus new ideas and disseminate information that will keep interested researchers abreast of the latest developments. It will also encourage collaboration among researchers and forecasters in this field. The real-time forecasts that appear in this Bulletin will serve as examples of what can be done now, and add some reality and suspense to what otherwise could only be an academic research discussion.
The contents of this Bulletin are not routine; i.e. some of the forecasts presented are expected to vary widely in their methodology, lead time, and specific predicted quantity from issue to issue.
This Bulletin is distributed to researchers as well as those with more applied interests. Persons wishing to participate in, or offer comments on, the Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin should contact Tony Barnston (editor) or Huug van den Dool at 301-763-8155 (fax 301-763-8395), or write to Climate Prediction Center, W/NMC51 Room 604, Washington, DC 20233. Technical Assistant: Paul Sabol