[Table of Contents] [Editorial Policy]
SUMMARY OF FORECASTS
For ENSO Condition and Other SST:
(Note: The Climate Prediction Center has issued a warm episode advisory.)
Dynamical methods: The improved Scripps/MPI hybrid coupled model predicts marked warmth
through winter 1997-98, peaking slightly before winter. The standard Lamont Doherty Earth
Observatory model predicts cool conditions through fall 1997, warming to neutral by winter and
to above normal during 1998; the new (LDEO2) model calls for cool through spring 1998,
warming thereafter. The NCEP coupled model calls for strong El Niño conditions through winter
1997-98. The COLA coupled model forecasts a moderate to strong El Niño episode, peaking near
winter 1997-98. The Australian BMRC low order coupled model predicts moderate to strong El
Niño conditions this summer and fall, largely dissipating by late winter 1996-97. The Oxford
coupled model calls for neutral to slight warming by late 1997; the new model design (predicting
change from ICs) forecasts moderate El Niño conditions for fall and winter 1997-98.
Statistical methods: CDC's inverse modeling predicts mature El Niño conditions through winter
1997-98; warm but slightly decreasing northern tropical Atlantic SST, and warm and slightly
increasing Caribbean SST, during rest of 1997. The Australian BMRC non-linear analogue
predicts much below normal SOI to August 1997. UCLA's (M)SSA-MEM predicts somewhat
warm Niño 3 SST, peaking fall 1997 and declining during winter 1997-98; and SOI moving to
below normal. Univ. of British Columbia's neural net model predicts continuing moderate El Niño
conditions through winter 1997-98. NCEP/CPC's CCA predicts moderate El Niño conditions for
Niño 3.4 (120-170W) for the next 12 months, peaking spring 1998. NOAA's constructed analog
model predicts El Niño conditions for Niño 3.4 through spring 1998, peaking in fall/winter
1997-98. NCEP's 4-model consolidated forecast calls for moderate El Niño conditions through
spring 1998, peaking in late fall '97 and again in late spring '98. The CSU/AOML ENSO CLIPER
model predicts fairly strong El Niño conditions, peaking in winter 1997-98. NCEP/CPC's CCA
for U.S. coastal SST calls for warm SST southern Hawaii and Washington/Oregon coast, cool
SST Gulf of Mexico/Southeast U.S. coasts Jun-Jul-Aug '97, warm west U.S. coast and cold Gulf
of Mexico coast Jan-Feb-Mar '98.
For United States and Canadian Temperature:
Dynamical methods: NCEP coupled model using predicted SST forecasts warm Pacific Northwest Jul-Aug-Sep '97.
Statistical methods: NCEP/CPC's optimal climate normals predicts warm parts of East and
Nevada, cool midsection for Jul-Aug-Sep '97; warm in East and the West (esp. Southwest) for
Jan-Feb-Mar '97. NCEP/CPC's CCA predicts warm East, Texas, parts of West, Alaska, southern
Hawaii Jul-Aug-Sep '97; warm Calif., Northeast, Midwest & Great Lakes, cold northern Hawaii
Jan-Feb-Mar 1998. NCEP/CPC's screening multiple regression predicts warm in Mid-Atlantic,
Florida, Southwest, Great Lakes; cool Maine, Dakotas, Alabama Jul-Aug-Sep '97. For
Oct-Nov-Dec '97 the regression predicts warm West, central Rockies, Florida; cold parts of
midsection. The CCA of the Atmospheric Environment Service in Downsview, Ontario predicts
warm for Jan-Feb-Mar 1998 in southern two-thirds of Canada, especially in southern Ontario and
Manitoba.
For Temperature Elsewhere in the Extratropics:
Statistical Methods: The UK Met. Office predicts normal to slightly cool for central England for
Jul-Aug '97.
For United States and Canadian Precipitation:
Statistical methods: NCEP/CPC's optimal climate normals predicts dryness North Carolina
Jul-Aug-Sep '97; dry Ohio Valley, we parts of South Jan-Feb-Mar '98. NCEP/CPC's CCA
predicts wet Great Lakes, northern Plains, northern Hawaii Jul-Aug-Sep '97; dry northern tier and
Hawaii, wet extreme South, part of Alaska Jan-Feb-Mar '98. NCEP/CPC's screening multiple
regression predicts for Jul-Aug-Sep '97 rainy near Iowa, dry northern Minnesota. The CCA of the
Atmospheric Environment Service in Downsview, Ontario calls for dry conditions in most of
British Columbia, Alberta and southern Saskatchewan for Jan-Feb-Mar 1998.
For Precipitation Elsewhere in the Extratropics:
Statistical methods: The Univ. of Chile Dept. of Geophysics predicts normal to above normal
rainfall for central Chile for austral winter (Jul-Aug) 1997. Jiangsu Meteorological
Institute/Observatory screening regression calls for wet conditions in the Yangtze-Huaihe Basins
of central-east China late June to mid-July 1997.
Continued on next page
Summary of Forecasts (continued)
For Tropical/Subtropical Rainfall:
Dynamical methods: The UK Met Office model predicts somewhat below-average rain in much of northern Africa, as well as for India, for boreal summer '97 rainy season.
Statistical methods: The UK Met Office regression/discriminant analysis forecasts mainly dry
conditions for northern Africa (low to moderate confidence). The Univ. of Wisconsin neural net
predicts slightly below average "short rains" at coast of East Africa for boreal autumn '97. The
African Desk/NCEP CCA predicts near to slightly above normal rainfall in western and central
Sahel, near to slightly below normal in eastern Sahel, for Jul-Sep '97. NCEP/CPC's CCA predicts
development of dry conditions at tropical Pacific islands west of date line, or far enough north or
south of equator east of date line, for boreal winter/spring 1997-98; enhanced rainfall at the more
equatorial stations east of the date line.
For 1997 Tropical Storm Activity:
Statistical methods: The CSU LAD regression approach forecasts slightly to somewhat above
normal Atlantic tropical storm activity for '97.