Extratropical Highlights
JULY 2011
Forecast Forum
1. Northern
Hemisphere
The
500-hPa circulation during July featured an alternating ridge-trough pattern
that extended around the hemisphere. Regional aspects of this pattern included
above average heights over the central North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean,
western Russia, and Mongolia, and below average heights over western North
America, central Europe, and central Siberia (Fig.
E9).
At
200-hPa, enhanced troughs over the tropical and subtropical central Pacific in
both hemispheres reflected a lingering response to La Niña (Fig.
T22).
The
main surface temperature anomalies during July resembled the 500-hPa
ridge-trough pattern, and included above-average temperatures across the eastern
half of the U.S., western Russia, eastern Siberia, and central China (Fig.
E1). Below average temperatures were observed in
central Europe and central Siberia. The main precipitation signals included
above-average totals across much of Europe, and below-average totals across the
south-central and eastern U.S., and western Russia (Fig.
E3).
a. North Pacific
and North America
In
the lower latitudes, the 200-hPa circulation during July featured amplified
mid-Pacific troughs in both hemispheres (Fig.
T22). This pattern is linked to the
lingering La Niña-related pattern of tropical convection (Fig.
T25).
In
the extratropics, the mean 500-hPa circulation featured an amplified
trough-ridge pattern extending across North America (Fig.
E9). This pattern was associated with an
amplification of the mean summer-time ridge normally situated east of the Rocky
Mountains. This persistent ridge contributed to exceptionally warm surface
temperatures across the eastern half of the U.S., with many regions recording
departures in the upper 90th percentile of occurrences (Fig.
E1). The ridge also contributed to below-average
precipitation across large portions of the eastern U.S., with the most
significant deficits observed in Texas, the mid-Atlantic, and the Great Lakes
region (Fig. E5).
The
mid-Atlantic region has recorded below-average precipitation for much of the
past year. However, much more severe precipitation deficits have accumulated
across the southern U.S. during the past year. According to NOAA’s U.S.
Drought Monitor, exceptional drought was evident during July across Texas,
Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and portions of central Louisiana. Extreme drought
was evident across New Mexico, southern Colorado, southern Georgia, and
southeastern North Carolina.
b.
North Atlantic and Eurasia
The
500-hPa circulation during July featured an alternating ridge-trough pattern
extending from the central North Atlantic to eastern Siberia (Fig.
E9). This pattern controlled the surface
temperature (Fig. E1) and precipitation (Fig.
E3) anomaly patterns throughout the region, with
warmer and drier than average conditions associated with the mean ridges, and
cooler and wetter conditions associated with the mean troughs. Specific regional
anomalies included a cooler and wetter than average month in both Europe and
central Russia, and warmer and drier than average month in western Russia,
eastern Siberia, and China.
2. Southern
Hemisphere
In
the subtropics, the upper-level (200-hPa) circulation during July reflected an
amplified trough across the central South Pacific, and a reduced strength of the
mean South Pacific jet stream (Figs. T21,
T22). These conditions are consistent
with the lingering La Niña-related pattern of tropical convection.
The
500-hPa circulation during July featured above average heights in the area south
of Australia and Africa, and also across Antarctica, and below average heights
south of New Zealand and over the central Indian Ocean (Fig.
E15). The
most significant surface temperature (Fig.
E1) and precipitation (Fig.
E3) signals were observed in eastern Australia,
where anomalously warm and dry conditions prevailed during the month.
|