CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate Anomalies for

Apr 2006 to Dec 2006



This page provides seasonal climate anomalies from the NCEP coupled forecast system model (CFS03). The model is integrated once per day for 9 target months. Initial conditions are from the NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2 (R2) for the atmosphere and from NCEP global ocean data assimilation system (GODAS) for the ocean. The forecast displayed here is ensemble mean of 40 forecast members. All anomalies are with respect to 1982-2003 hindcast climatology, except for Nino SSTs for which a bias correction with 1982-2003 average is first applied and then observed climatlogy of 1971-2000 is used to define anomalies.  

CAUTION: Seasonal climate anomalies shown here are not the official NCEP seasonal forecast outlooks. The NCEP seasonal forecast outlooks can be found at CPC website. Model based seasonal climate anomalies are one factor based on which NCEP seasonal forecast outlook is issued.  

NOTE: The forecast displayed on this page is updated once per month when the latest forecast member is initialized from the beginning of the first day of the first target month. The latest forecast that is updated every day can be found at CFS forecast.  
 

Nino SSTs
 Monthly Nino1+2
 Monthly Nino3
 Monthly Nino3.4
 Monthly Nino4
 Seasonal Nino1+2
 Seasonal Nino3
 Seasonal Nino3.4
 Seasonal Nino4

Sea surface height and equatorial temperature
 Sea surface height (x-y)
 Equatorial temperature (x-z)

Three-month-mean spatial anomalies
(1-6 month leads)
Variable
Anomaly
Anomaly with skill mask
Normalized
Normalized with skill mask
Probability
SST
Prec
T2m
z200
 
z700
 
Prec
T2m
US SM
 

Monthly-mean spatial anomalies
(0-5 month leads)
Variable
Anomaly
Anomaly with skill mask
Normalized
Normalized with skill mask
SST
Prec
T2m
z200
z700
Prec
T2m
US SM

Forecast verification
One-month-lead seasonal mean

Forecast skills
Forecast correlation skill


CFS Forecast display
Latest CFS realtime forecast
CFS realtime forecast from previous months


Send your comments to: Wanqiu Wang

For forecast data access, go to: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/cfs_data/