This page provides seasonal climate anomalies from the NCEP coupled forecast system model (CFS03). The model is integrated once per day for 9 target months. Initial conditions are from the NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2 (R2) for the atmosphere and from NCEP global ocean data assimilation system (GODAS) for the ocean. The forecast displayed here is ensemble mean of 40 forecast members. All anomalies are with respect to 1982-2003 hindcast climatology, except for Nino SSTs for which a bias correction with 1982-2003 average is first applied and then observed climatlogy of 1971-2000 is used to define anomalies.
CAUTION: Seasonal climate anomalies shown here are not the official NCEP seasonal forecast outlooks. The NCEP seasonal forecast outlooks can be found at CPC website. Model based seasonal climate anomalies are one factor based on which NCEP seasonal forecast outlook is issued.
NOTE: The forecast displayed on this page is updated once per month
when the latest forecast member is initialized from the beginning of the first day of the first
target month. The latest forecast that is updated every day can be found at CFS forecast.