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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster. Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: May 18 - 22, 2008 (6-10 Day Outlook) Valid: May 20 - 26, 2008 (8-14 Day Outlook) Issued: May 12, 2008 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAY 18 - 22 2008 TODAYS CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AMPLIFIED TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY EXTENDING TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGES ARE FORECAST SOUTHWEST OF GREENLAND AND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO WESTERN CANADA AND ALASKA. THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS WERE UNAVAILABLE. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND YESTERDAYS 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR FORECASTS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH TODAYS SOLUTIONS ARE SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE STRONGLY POSITIVE BY DAY 7 THEN DECREASE IN VALUE BUT REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA, THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, AND THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS SHOULD CAUSE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE RIDGE OVER ALASKA SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. THE TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS SUGGESTS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR THE REGION. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST, KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, THE CPC AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 39N 128W AND ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 46N 82W. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, INSPECTION OF THE DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS, NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 39N 128W AND ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 46N 82W. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 20 - 26 2008: FOR WEEK 2 THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME DEAMPLIFICATION IS INDICATED. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE GENERALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATES A FAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT A PATTERN CHANGE MAY OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO ITS SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH TODAYS PROG IS A LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN. TODAYS BLEND CHART DEPICTS BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA, PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND CALIFORNIA, WHERE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER ALASKA. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE LITTLE CHANGED FROM THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION FROM NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK 2. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 75 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURES, THE KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CPC AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED AT 45N 85W. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST, NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED AT 45N 85W. FORECASTER: SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY 16. CLICK HERE FOR A GLOSSARY OF TERMS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800509 - 19500425 - 19600501 - 19950518 - 19880422
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800509 - 19600501 - 19500425 - 19950518 - 19730428
6 to 10 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 18 - 22, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA B B WYOMING N B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B
NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N B
8 to 14 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 20 - 26, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B B WYOMING B B
UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO B B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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