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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Apr 22 - 26, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Apr 24 - 30, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Apr 16, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT WED APRIL 16 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 22 - 26 2014 
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA  
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH, A RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER WESTERN CANADA EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO INTERIOR ALASKA. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, A TROUGH IS PREDICTED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS FROM THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z ECMWF IS GENERALLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. TODAY'S OFFICIAL MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DUE, IN PART, TO RELATIVELY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT ANALOG CORRELATIONS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH FORECAST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE FAR WEST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH AXIS FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. CONVERSELY, THERE ARE INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FORECAST RIDGE. MOIST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPECTED MEAN STORM TRACK. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 00Z AND 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS (TIED) FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 24 - 30 2014 DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY HIGH SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE ECWMF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FORECAST LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER THE CONUS FROM COAST TO COAST DUE, IN PART, TO DIFFERENCES IN THE COMPONENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEING AVERAGED TOGETHER. THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS GENERALLY PREDICT A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC GFS ON THE DETAILS OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES OVER THE CONUS. AGREEMENT IS BETTER OVER ALASKA WHERE A
TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE INTERIOR. TODAY'S WEEK TWO MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DUE, IN PART, TO CONSIDERATION OF RECENT SKILL AND TO ANALOG CORRELATIONS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AHEAD OF A
TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS AHEAD OF A TROUGH FORECAST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. CONVERSELY, THERE ARE INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FORECAST RIDGE. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF COLORADO CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA RELATED TO A TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS. NEAR TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN ALASKA TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPECTED MEAN STORM TRACK. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 17
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19940405 - 20000410 - 19790404 - 19700327 - 19580429
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19700326 - 19940404 - 19790403 - 19700331 - 20000410 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR APR 22 - 26 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N A NEVADA B A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A UTAH N A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR APR 24 - 30 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A A NEVADA N A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN A A RHODE IS N N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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