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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Sep 28 - Oct 02, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Sep 30 - Oct 06, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Sep 22, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT MON SEPTEMBER 22 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 28 - OCT 02, 2014 
 
TODAY'S MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST CIRCULATION  
FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT  
MANUAL BLEND IS THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE, COHERENT WAVE PATTERN CENTERED ON THE NORTH  
ATLANTIC, WITH A TROUGH SOUTH OF GREENLAND, AND RIDGES UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM  
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND NORTHWESTERN EUROPE, RESPECTIVELY. MODEL  
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE, HOWEVER, FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND  
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS  
BUILDING NEAR AND JUST OFF THE WEST COAST, WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN SUGGEST NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC  
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. TELECONNECTIONS UPON THE LARGEST  
FORECAST ANOMALY CENTERS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE ECWMF SOLUTION. ALSO, THE ECMWF HAS  
DISPLAYED BETTER CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN ON THIS ISSUE, THOUGH ENSEMBLE  
SPREAD IS HIGH IN BOTH SYSTEMS. THEREFORE, THE ECMWF IS GIVEN HIGHER WEIGHTING  
THAN THE GFS IN TODAY'S MANUAL BLEND.  
 
THESE DIFFERENCES BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS INTERESTING AT THE SURFACE, WHERE TOOLS  
DERIVED FROM BOTH SYSTEMS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE  
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY FORECAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, ABOVE-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. SOME  
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REIGN IN EXCESSIVELY HIGH PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE  
FIRST GUESS AUTOMATED FORECAST. THE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND, WHERE THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF A COLD FRONT BRINGING IN A CANADIAN  
AIR MASS LATER IN THE PERIOD, AS INDICATED BY TELECONNECTIONS UPON THE INTENSE  
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. ADDITIONALLY, PROBABILITIES  
WERE MODIFIED SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE ANOMALOUSLY WET CONDITIONS  
ARE FAVORED. FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING FAVORS  
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT NOT EXCEPTIONALLY SO, ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY  
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A TENDENCY TOWARD HIGHER 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND  
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL SSTS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE  
CALIFORNIA COAST. 
 
THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORECAST OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA LEADS TO A FAIRLY  
HIGH-CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL NORTHERLIES FAVOR BELOW-MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD. ANOMALOUS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT  
LOW-TO-MID LEVELS FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE ROCKIES,  
HIGH PLAINS, AND SOUTHWEST. PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE  
ABOVE-MEDIAN RAINFALL DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH THE REMNANTS OF  
A COLD FRONT. 
 
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING FAVORS DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST  
OF ALASKA, WHILE TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE  
ALASKAN PANHANDLE ACTIVE. A COMBINATION OF WARM SSTS SOUTH OF ALASKA AND  
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FARTHER NORTH LEAD TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR  
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. 
 
 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF  
TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z  
ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON  
DAY 8, AND 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8  
  
 
MODEL OF THE DAY: 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TOOLS OVER THE CONUS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODEL  
DISAGREEMENT AT UPPER-LEVELS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT COULD IMPACT  
DOWNSTREAM SURFACE CLIMATE. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 30 - OCT 06, 2014  
 
TODAY'S WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND SHOWS SOME EASTWARD PROPAGATION AND  
DEAMPLIFICATION COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND RUN-TO-RUN  
VARIABILITY (ESPECIALLY WITH THE GFS) IS PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF  
FAVORS MORE ANOMALOUS TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THAN DO THE GFS AND  
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. AS IN THE PRECEDING PERIOD, TELECONNECTIONS UPON THE  
LARGEST ANOMALY CENTERS OVER NORTHERN EUROPE AND NORTHEASTERN ASIA TEND TO  
SUPPORT THE ECWMF, THOUGH NOT OVERWHELMINGLY.  
 
AGAIN, AT THE SURFACE THERE IS FAIRLY LITTLE DIFFERENCE, THOUGH THE ECMWF  
SUPPORTS A LARGER AREA FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN  
U.S. THIS OUTLOOK REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO, WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT  
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE ONLY APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE WEEK-2 OUTLOOK  
COMPARED WITH THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK IS AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF PROBABILITIES,  
REFLECTING THE GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FORECAST CIRCULATION. 
 
ALASKA IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY  
PERIOD, AS ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE, ESPECIALLY LATE IN  
THE PERIOD. 
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON  
DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE  
TO HIGH SPREAD AMONG TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT  
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 
 
FORECASTER: STEPHEN BAXTER 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
OCTOBER 16 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19690910 - 19651002 - 19870930 - 19840916 - 19790915
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19690909 - 19630906 - 19870930 - 19840916 - 19790915 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR SEP 28 - OCT 02, 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR SEP 30 - OCT 06, 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B N NEVADA N B W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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