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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: May 31 - Jun 04, 2017 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jun 02 - 08, 2017 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: May 25, 2017

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 - JUN 04, 2017 
 
RECENT ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OF THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN  
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY  
PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, CALIFORNIA, AND THE  
BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA, WHILE A RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE  
SOUTHWEST CONUS EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN  
WEST, WESTERN CANADA, AND MOST OF ALASKA. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS  
GENERALLY INDICATE RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN LOWER 48 STATES, AND  
MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TODAY'S 500-HPA BLEND CHART  
DEPICTS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AND EXTREME  
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE  
EASTERN ALEUTIANS, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE  
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. 
 
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND/OR ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE EXCEPTION IS  
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, MAINLAND ALASKA, THE WESTERN  
ALEUTIANS, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA. 
 
TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND CALIFORNIA ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE  
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE RIDGING OVER THE  
INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW FAVOR BELOW MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH OVER  
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN  
MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALEUTIANS, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,  
30% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF TODAY'S  
OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z  
ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 7  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE  
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.  
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 08 2017  
 
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS GENERALLY  
PERSIST THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD INTO THE 8-14  
DAY PERIOD. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS MODERATE TO LARGE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST  
DOMAIN. SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION OF ANOMALIES OVER NORTH AMERICA ARE APPARENT AND  
RESULT FROM AN INCREASE IN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD AS WELL  
AS INHERENT SMOOTHING WHICH OCCURS OVER THE LONGER 7-DAY AVERAGING PERIOD.  
TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN,  
THE EASTERN CONUS, AND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA, WHILE A RIDGE  
IS EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN CONUS EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO  
OVER WESTERN CANADA AND MUCH OF ALASKA. THE WEEK-2 500-HPA BLEND CHART  
INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN EXCEPT  
FOR PARTS OF THE INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS AND MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA WHERE  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. 
 
THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FORECAST FOR THE  
8-14 DAY PERIOD ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD  
ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF THE EASTERN TROUGH LEADS TO A FORECAST OF  
NEAR MEDIAN PRECIPITATION (AS OPPOSED TO BELOW MEDIAN) FOR PARTS OF THE  
NORTHEAST CONUS. 
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON  
DAY 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE  
TO FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS AND AMONG TEMPERATURE AND  
PRECIPITATION TOOLS, BUT INCREASING UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF SMALL  
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. 
 
FORECASTER: RANDY S 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
JUNE 15 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19520518 - 19660511 - 19660519 - 19850516 - 20030510
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19520517 - 19660516 - 19660511 - 20030509 - 19970516 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 - JUN 04, 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N B IOWA B B MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N N MASS N B CONN B B RHODE IS N B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 08 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N B IOWA B N MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B A OHIO B N KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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