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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: May 18 - 22, 2008 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: May 20 - 26, 2008 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: May 12, 2008 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAY 18 - 22 2008
TODAYS CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AMPLIFIED TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY EXTENDING TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGES ARE
FORECAST SOUTHWEST OF GREENLAND AND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TO WESTERN CANADA AND ALASKA. THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS WERE
UNAVAILABLE. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND YESTERDAYS 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR
FORECASTS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH TODAYS SOLUTIONS ARE SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY
HAS BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE STRONGLY POSITIVE BY DAY 7 THEN
DECREASE IN VALUE BUT REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH
RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 14.
TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS
AND OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA. NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA, THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS, AND THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CONUS AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS SHOULD CAUSE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. THE RIDGE OVER ALASKA SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. THE TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS
SUGGESTS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY FOR THE REGION.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY
8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...35 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND
FORECAST TOOLS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST, KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, THE CPC AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND
TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 39N 128W AND ON A
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 46N 82W.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, INSPECTION OF THE DAILY PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS, NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT
39N 128W AND ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 46N 82W.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 20 - 26 2008:
FOR WEEK 2 THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION IS INDICATED. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE GENERALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS
INDICATES A FAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT A PATTERN CHANGE MAY OCCUR DURING THE
PERIOD. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO ITS
SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH TODAYS PROG IS A LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN. TODAYS BLEND CHART DEPICTS BELOW NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA, PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND CALIFORNIA, WHERE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER
ALASKA. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2
ARE LITTLE CHANGED FROM THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH
SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION FROM NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK 2.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED
ON DAY 11...AND 75 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
TEMPERATURES, THE KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE, THE CDC
TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CPC AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND
TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED AT 45N 85W.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST, NEURAL
NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED AT 45N 85W.
FORECASTER: SCHECHTER
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
16.
CLICK HERE FOR A GLOSSARY OF TERMS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800509 - 19500425 - 19600501 - 19950518 - 19880422
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800509 - 19600501 - 19500425 - 19950518 - 19730428
6 to 10 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 18 - 22, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA B B WYOMING N B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B
NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N B
8 to 14 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 20 - 26, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B B WYOMING B B
UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO B B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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Surface Forecasts,
500mb Heights and Anomalies,
Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill,
Model Guidance Used
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Who We Are,
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