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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jul 26 - 30, 2017 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jul 28 - Aug 03, 2017 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jul 20, 2017

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT THU JULY 20 2017 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 26 - 30 2017 
 
TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT  
PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE  
EASTERN U.S., WHILE RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE WESTERN U.S.  
THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH  
FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDICATE  
MODERATE SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CONUS, AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE  
EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST OF THE SPREAD OVER THE CONUS SEEMS TO BE RELATED TO  
AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES, WHILE THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND RIDGE AXES  
SHOW RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. TODAY'S 500-HPA BLEND CHART DEPICTS NEAR TO  
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S., THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN  
CONUS, NORTHERN ALASKA, AND PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE  
NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.  
EXPECTED HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS DO NOT EXCEED 30 METERS, WHILE  
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST NEAR THE ALEUTIANS APPROACH 200 METERS. 
 
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL FLOW TILT  
THE ODDS TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS WHERE  
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ABOVE  
NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF  
ALASKA. 
 
THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. MONSOONAL FLOW ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR  
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATIONS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S., CENTRAL GREAT  
BASIN, AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. RIDGING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL U.S. TILTS THE ODDS  
TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT  
PLAINS. WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA, BELOW MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THE AMPLIFIED  
RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH NORTH OF ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALASKA. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, BUT WEAK LARGE-SCALE ANOMALIES AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 28 - AUG 03, 2017 THE PATTERN FORECAST DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, EXCEPT SHIFTED WESTWARD A BIT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, AND MODERATE TO LARGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. THE BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN U.S., NORTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS, SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, AND THE ALEUTIANS. PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN EXCESS OF 30 METERS. THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY, A WARMER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS FORECAST OVER NORTHEASTERN ALASKA INTRODUCES ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL ALASKA. THE TROUGH FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST SHIFTS A BIT WESTWARD DURING WEEK-2, MONSOONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AXIS, TILTING THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS, SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND MUCH OF ARIZONA. THE POSITION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A TROUGH NORTH OF ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE, WHILE THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THAT REGION AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 15% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, BUT WEAK LARGE-SCALE ANOMALIES AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS. FORECASTER: RANDY S NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 17
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19790803 - 20050630 - 19780724 - 19790728 - 20040719
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19790802 - 20050630 - 19780723 - 19790728 - 20050720 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUL 26 - 30 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B A NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUL 28 - AUG 03, 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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