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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: Feb 15 - 19, 2010 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Feb 17 - 23, 2010 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Feb 09, 2010 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EST TUE FEBRUARY 09 2010
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 15 - 19 2010
TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE EXPECTED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE.
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES ARE FORECASTING A
STRONGER RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST US. UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE, A WEAK TROUGH IS DEPICTED BY ALL OF THE ENSEMBLES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THIS PATTERN IS MOST AMPLIFIED IN THE EUROPEAN AND 0Z AND 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS. RECENTLY ANOMALY CORRELATION SCORES OF THE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FROM THE GFS HAVE DECREASED AND THUS HAVE BEEN
WEIGHTED LOWER IN THE MANUAL BLEND AND FAVORED LESS IN THE SURFACE FORECASTS.
A STRONG, NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO), WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES AND BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDDLE
LATITUDES, IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THIS PHASE OF
THE AO IS CONSISTENT WITH ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER FLORIDA. THE
FORECAST STRENGTHENING RIDGE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A GREATER AREA OF ENHANCED ODDS
FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN US. ANALOGS FROM MANY OF THE
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS INDICATE GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN TEXAS AND FLORIDA AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS FROM THE
ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA,
AND THE FORECAST TOOLS FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE
GENERALLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...50
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8.
MODEL OF THE DAY: 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: EXCELLENT, 5 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5,
DUE TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ALL MODEL ENSEMBLES.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND AND FROM VARIOUS OTHER MODEL RUNS, THE NAEFS
TEMPERATURE FORECAST, ANALOGS FROM THE ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS, AND
THE CPC AUTOBLEND FORECAST.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST, ANALOGS FROM THE ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS, AND THE CPC
AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 17 - 23 2010
THE PREDICTED WEEK 2 CIRCULATION PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT EXPECTED FOR
THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS,
HOWEVER, FORECAST LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE SOUTHWEST US COMPARED TO THE EUROPEAN
AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. MORE WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE MOST RECENT EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN DUE TO ITS RECENT SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
COMPARED TO THE OTHER ENSEMBLES. DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. SPAGHETTI
DIAGRAMS OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND IN THE TROUGH OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA, WHICH IS WHERE THE MOST UNCERTAINTY ARISES IN THIS FORECAST.
FORECAST TOOLS ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE DETAILED ABOVE IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND
TOOLS FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES DIFFER LITTLE YIELDING A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WESTERN US.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM
THE MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS OTHER MODEL RUNS, THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE FORECAST,
ANALOGS FROM THE ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS, AND THE CPC AUTO-BLEND.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON NAEFS, ANALOGS, THE CPC AUTOMATIC
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
FORECASTER: SARAH MARQUARDT
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 18
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS
PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE
MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19780212 - 19690213 - 19870216 - 19790124 - 20040131
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19780212 - 19690214 - 19870216 - 19790124 - 19690219
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 15 - 19 2010
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE N B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 17 - 23 2010
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B
UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE N B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
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