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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jul 24 - 28, 2018 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jul 26 - Aug 01, 2018 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jul 18, 2018

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT WED JULY 18 2018 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 24 - 28 2018 
 
A LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING LATE JULY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL  
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. MODEL CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT REMAINS EXCELLENT AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS FEATURE BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG COLD FRONT, FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY DAY 6. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT. NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE INCREASES CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND ALASKA. THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE STRENGTH OF THIS
RIDGE LIKELY PEAKS ON DAYS 6 AND 7 WITH 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 597DM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM, A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT, AND ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESULT IN RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE DETERMINISTIC 0Z ECMWF MODEL INDICATES A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES (LOCALLY MORE) OF RAINFALL FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NORTH TO NEW ENGLAND FROM JULY 24 TO 26. A SECONDARY MAX IN PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. RIDGING ALOFT ENHANCES ODDS FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE INCREASES CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY AS AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN DEVELOPS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 26 - AUG 01, 2018 THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS MAINTAIN THE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE (TROUGH) OVER WESTERN (EASTERN) NORTH AMERICA DURING WEEK-2. THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN IS QUITE STABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW, AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE (ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE) ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA, NORTHWEST IOWA, AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF MORE THAN 30 METERS FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A WET SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS LIKELY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EAST COAST LEADING INTO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD DUE TO: A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH UPSTREAM, A MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ANOMALOUS MOISTURE. TODAY'S ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CENTERED ON THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EAST COAST. INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTEND WEST TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE A THERMAL GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO EXIST. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF WEEK-2. HOWEVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION BY THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST. ALSO, THE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC WITH TIME. THE DETERMINISTIC 6Z/12Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT LATER NEXT WEEK IN THE EAST PACIFIC (NEAR 10N AND BETWEEN 100-110W). IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NORTHWEST, IT COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, WHILE INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NON-ARID AREAS OF THE WESTERN U.S. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ENHANCES ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA, ALTHOUGH BELOW NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A MODERATING INFLUENCE FOR AREAS BORDERING THE BEAUFORT SEA. THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST MAINLAND ALASKA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY UNDERNEATH THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE ALOFT. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 60% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN AMPLIFIED AND STABLE LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20060628 - 20050716 - 20010706 - 19940707 - 20030725
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20060627 - 20010706 - 19670701 - 20050716 - 20030725 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUL 24 - 28 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA B B WYOMING B B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUL 26 - AUG 01, 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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