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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Feb 26 - Mar 02, 2018 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Feb 28 - Mar 06, 2018 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Feb 20, 2018

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST MON FEBRUARY 20 2018 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 26 - MAR 02, 2018 
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA 
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST NORTHWEST OF 
HUDSON BAY EXTENDING EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHWESTWARD 
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. RIDGES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
MAINLAND ALASKA. THE FLOW PATTERN IS PREDICTED TO BE RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED. THE 
ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE SMALL TO MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE 
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND IS BASED 
PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE CANADIAN, EUROPEAN, AND GEFS MODEL 
SUITES. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND DEPICTS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER 
MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE ALEUTIANS, AND MAINLAND 
ALASKA, AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, THE 
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PANHANDLE.

PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN CONUS LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A STRONG 
RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LEADS TO ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUS 
RIDGING OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA FAVORS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR 
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AS WELL AS THE ALEUTIANS. 
ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.

THE DEEP TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND/OR ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY 
FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF 
THE HIGH PLAINS, AND MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, EXCEPT FOR FLORIDA WHERE BELOW 
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED DUE TO THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS SOUTHEAST RIDGE. 
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF COLORADO, NEW MEXICO, 
AND EASTERN TEXAS, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF 
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO NEAR TO ABOVE 
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE 
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF ALASKA.

THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS 
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED 
ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z 
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN 
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED 
ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF 
YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO 
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS.
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 27 - MAR 05, 2018  
 
THE MEAN 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO 
THAT DEPICTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH LESS AMPLIFIED 
CIRCULATION FEATURES ARE INDICATED AND THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IS 
SHIFTED A BIT WESTWARD. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE 
WESTERN CONUS AND THE EAST COAST AND  SOUTHERN ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE ABOVE 
NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

A DEEP TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES OF NEAR TO BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. A RIDGE 
FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LEADS TO ENHANCED CHANCES OF NEAR TO ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN CONUS. ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER SOUTHWESTERN 
ALASKA FAVORS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND 
NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AS WELL AS THE ALEUTIANS. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW 
TILTS THE ODDS TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND 
ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.

THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES OF 
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL 
HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, THE OHIO VALLEY, THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC, THE NORTHEAST, AND 
FLORIDA. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN 
MONTANA, COLORADO, NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL 
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS 
TILT THE ODDS TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE UTAH, 
ARIZONA, NEVADA, AND CALIFORNIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF 
OF ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA.
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS 
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED 
ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 
0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN 
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN 
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED 
ON DAY 10
 
ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, WITH SOME 
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS
 
FORECASTER: LUKE H 
 
NOTES: 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL  
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN  
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. 
 
 
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS  
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW 
 
 
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,  
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE  
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE  
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  
 PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. 
 
 
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,  
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES  
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE  
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  
 PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. 
 
 
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A  
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL  
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES  
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO  
PRECIPITATION. 
 
 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR  
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE  
OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
MARCH 15. 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19590205 - 19890213 - 19570130 - 19550224 - 19660214
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19590205 - 19570202 - 19890201 - 19890212 - 19550224 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR FEB 25 - MAR 01, 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR FEB 27 - MAR 05, 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B N NEVADA B A W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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