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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jul 06 - 10, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jul 08 - 14, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jun 30, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT THU JUNE 30 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 06 - 10 2016 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA 
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST 
NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST WHILE RIDGING IS PREDICTED OVER THE  
SOUTHERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD  
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TODAY'S 500-HPA BLEND CHART DEPICTS  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA  
HEIGHT BLEND IS COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, BASED  
LARGELY ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ON ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH  
MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS RESEMBLE CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN  
THE PAST.  
 
TROUGHING NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TILTS THE ODDS FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. POSITIVE  
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND RIDGING ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST FAVORED ALONG THE GULF COAST, WHERE TEMPERATURE TOOLS ARE IN THE BEST AGREEMENT. RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEAST, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE GREAT LAKES, THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE OHIO VALLEY, THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC, AND THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INDICATED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 08 - 14 2016 THE 500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MOST OF THE CONUS HAS VERY LOW MAGNITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST FAVORED FOR THE GULF COAST STATES, WHERE TEMPERATURE TOOLS ARE IN THE BEST AGREEMENT. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALASKA, THE GREAT LAKES, THE OHIO VALLEY, THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC, AND THE NORTHEAST CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 21
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20060624 - 19790714 - 19990615 - 19610614 - 19980629
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20060626 - 19980705 - 19990616 - 20060621 - 20060701 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUL 06 - 10 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN A N RHODE IS N N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUL 08 - 14 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA B N WYOMING N B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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