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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Dec 03 - 07, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Dec 05 - 11, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Nov 27, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST THU NOVEMBER 27 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 03 - 07 2014 
 
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE VARIOUS  
MODELS ON THE IMPORTANT 500-HPA FEATURES AFFECTING THE CONUS IN THE 6-10 DAY  
PERIOD. AT ISSUE IS THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE  
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS NEAR THE START OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE GFS AND  
CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH STALLING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS,  
RESULTING IN A SPLIT FLOW ON THE 6-10 DAY MEAN. THE ECMWF, ON THE OTHER HAND,  
KEEPS THE TROUGH OFF SHORE AND PHASED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE FORECAST  
FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MODELS PREDICTING  
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS BETWEEN 30 AND 50 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE, AND  
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FARTHER NORTH. THIS GIVES A POSITIVE AO/NAO LOOK TO THE  
FLOW PATTERN AND A STRONG JET JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THE
500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA ARE MOSTLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. IN SPITE OF REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION ELSEWHERE, THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HAVE WIDESPREAD INFLUENCE ON THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. THE SPLIT FLOW OF THE GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS WOULD PROVIDE MOISTURE TO THE WESTERN CONUS NEAR THE TROUGH, AND PROVIDE FOR MORE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FLOW MORE ZONAL AND WITH LESS CERTAINTY IN ITS PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS. THE POOR AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY'S MODELS RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK. THE GEFS SOLUTION WAS SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN TODAY'S BLEND DUE TO IT'S AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY LEADING TO ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SHALLOW COLD AIR MASSES WILL ELEVATE CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA ARE WARMER TODAY THAN INDICATED ON YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE, AND THE CHANCES OF NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN THE NORTH. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK REFLECTS THE GEFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS FAVORING A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THE PREDICTION OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF CANADA SUGGESTS A NORTHERLY DISPLACEMENT OF THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK WITH ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND ELEVATED CHANCES OF NEAR TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE GEFS FAVORS A STORM TRACK STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE DRIER CONDITIONS SUGGESTED BY THE ANALOGS AND OTHER TOOLS, AND INDICATES ONLY MINIMALLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 MODEL OF THE DAY: 6Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 05 - 11 2014 THE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS FOR THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS POOR. THE GEFS MODELS PREDICT A SPLIT FLOW OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN JET OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE DIRECTLY NORTH OF IT OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FLOW ZONAL WITH ONLY A WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM AND INTENSIFIED WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S.- CANADIAN BORDER. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS, BUT WITH HIGHER AMPLITUDE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM, LEADING TO A FAIRLY DEEP EASTERN TROUGH. AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE GEFS SOLUTION WAS SLIGHTLY FAVORED. MOST ENSEMBLES FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA, ENHANCING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CONUS. PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH, IN VIEW OF THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW SUGGESTED BY THE CANADIAN MODEL, WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED IN THE REGIONS MOST INFLUENCED BY THE EASTERN TROUGH. THE POSSIBILITY OF A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ELEVATES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TEXAS, ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS LOW.  RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHICH TOGETHER WITH THE NORTHERN-STREAM RIDGE SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF WASHINGTON STATE. THE GEFS REFORECAST INDICATES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH PROBABILITIES ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TOWARD HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR CONSISTENCY WITH THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST. THE BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE INCREASES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN ALASKA AS IT DIVERTS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 50% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5, DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 18
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19721129 - 19581203 - 19931107 - 19911202 - 20081203
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19721128 - 19931106 - 19581202 - 19761201 - 20061203 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR DEC 03 - 07 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N B NEVADA A A W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B B WYOMING N B UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA B B IOWA N B MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR DEC 05 - 11 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N N INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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