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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Dec 15 - 19, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Dec 17 - 23, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Dec 09, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST FRI DECEMBER 09 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 15 - 19 2016 
 
TODAY'S MODELS EXHIBIT FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN.  
A STRONG RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE, CYCLONIC  
FLOW AND BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE WESTERN  
AND NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FARTHER  
TO THE SOUTH OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS  
MODERATELY HIGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WHERE HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY PREDICTED  
BY TODAY'S MODELS TO BE LOWER RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS. ENSEMBLE  
SPREAD IS ALSO MODERATE TO HIGH OVER ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE  
PREDICTED OVER THE STATE. THE GREATEST WEIGHT IN TODAY'S MANUAL, 500-HPA HEIGHT  
BLEND WAS GIVEN TO THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION BASED ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ON ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE PREDICTED PATTERN MATCHES CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. HOWEVER, ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AS DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS LEAD TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER CENTRAL ALASKA FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PANHANDLE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED NEAR AND BEHIND THE PREDICTED RIDGE AXIS FOR THE ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. THE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER ALASKA FAVORS A DRY PATTERN FOR THE PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST. PREDICTED SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE PREDICTED 500-HPA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS DUE TO AN ENHANCED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FORECAST BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AND TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 17 - 23 2016 DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS HAVE COME IN TO BETTER AGREEMENT RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S MODEL SUITE. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE, CYCLONIC FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CONUS. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS MODERATE OVER THE CONUS AND HIGH OVER ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BASED SOLUTIONS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN, WESTERN, AND CENTRAL CONUS UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW. HOWEVER, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH PREDICTED RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE RIDGE FOR THE PANHANDLE UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ANOMALOUS, NORTHERLY 500-HPA FLOW. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, GREAT BASIN, AND ROCKIES UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN CONUS DUE TO AN ANTICIPATED ENHANCED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE WEST. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ANOMALOUS, NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY 500-HPA BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO RELATIVE GOOD ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREEMENT OFFSET BY MODERATELY HIGH SPREAD AMONG THE COMPONENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 15
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19961220 - 19681221 - 20051129 - 19731127 - 19661202
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19961219 - 20051202 - 19681221 - 19551216 - 19661130 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR DEC 15 - 19 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B N NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF N A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA A A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR DEC 17 - 23 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B N NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA N A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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