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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: May 31 - Jun 04, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jun 02 - 08, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: May 25, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 - JUN 04, 2016 
 
TODAY'S MODELS EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT. MOST MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE ABOVE  
NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND ALASKA, WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS  
OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. TODAY'S 500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND INDICATES A  
GENERAL PROPAGATION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE MID-LATITUDES WITH A BLOCKING  
PATTERN INDICATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, RIDGING NEAR THE WEST COAST,  
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. 
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA, EXCEPT FOR  
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SLOPE, AND FOR THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE WEST COAST TO  
THE JUST NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED  
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES DUE TO THE FORECAST  
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM  
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST, WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS FROM THE  
OHIO VALLEY TO VERMONT DUE TO ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW. 
 
RIDGING OVER ALASKA, AS THE NORTHERN COMPONENT TO AN EVOLVING BLOCKING PATTERN  
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA.  
RIDGING AND MEAN OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY. TROUGHING OVER  
THE GREAT PLAINS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO  
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS TRACKING A  
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE BAHAMAS THAT HAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A  
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS, AND THAT INCREASES UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE  
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST.  
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40%  
OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S  
OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 08 2016  
 
TODAY'S 500-HPA MODEL HEIGHT OUTLOOKS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE LARGEST  
UNCERTAINTIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE EUROPEAN CENTER ENSEMBLE MEAN  
OUTLOOK HAS MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY THAN IT DID  
YESTERDAY, AND LOWER HEIGHTS THAN EITHER OF THE GEFS OR THE ENVIRONMENT CANADA  
ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE RESULTANT OFFICIAL 500-HPA OUTLOOK FEATURES A BLOCKING  
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA,  
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY, AND TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT  
PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.  
 
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA DUE TO MEAN UPPER-LEVEL  
RIDGING AND MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MUCH OF THE STATE, EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA  
IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE  
CONUS FAVORS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WHILE THE TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM TEXAS THROUGH NEBRASKA TO ILLINOIS, AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ARE WEAKLY FAVORED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL AVERAGE FLOW AND TROUGHING AT 500-HPA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST. RIDGING OVER THE WEST FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CONFIGURATION OF THE PREDICTED BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COULD ALLOW SOME STORM SYSTEMS TO IMPACT WESTERN ALASKA, FAVORING ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO A PREDICTED WEAK 500-HPA ANOMALY PATTERN, OFFSET BY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AND TOOLS. FORECASTER: MATT ROSENCRANS NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 16
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19820531 - 19990601 - 19880505 - 19620519 - 19780531
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19820531 - 19990601 - 19780531 - 19670604 - 19590524 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 - JUN 04, 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 08 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N B IOWA B N MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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