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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Mar 24 - 28, 2024 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Mar 26 - Apr 01, 2024 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Mar 18, 2024

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Mon March 18 2024 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 24 - 28 2024 
 
Dynamical models are in good agreement today on the positioning of the mean  
500-hPa height features during the 6-10 day period. There are two areas of  
positive 500-hPa height anomalies, one centered east of the Canadian Maritimes  
spreading into the northeastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS), and a second centered  
over Alaska with positive heights spreading towards the North Pole and into the  
central North Pacific. In southern Canada and the western half of the CONUS  
negative 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast with a trough digging into the  
central CONUS by the middle of the period. 
 
Below-normal temperatures are favored across the western CONUS east to the  
Upper-Mississippi Valley, Central Plains and parts of the Southern Plains along  
and behind the mean 500-hPa trough axis. The strongest chances for below-normal  
temperatures are forecast for the Northern Plains with chances exceeding 80%  
across this region. Meanwhile, east of the Mississippi River and extending  
along the Texas Gulf Coast, above-normal temperatures are forecast. There is  
lower confidence in the above-normal as the mid-level trough shifts eastward  
during the period and the raw dynamical tools are cooler relative to the  
reforecast and short term bias-corrected tools. In Alaska, with strong positive  
500-hPa height anomalies forecast during the period, above-normal temperatures  
are strongly favored across most of the mainland, while in parts of Southeast  
Alaska, near to slightly-below normal is favored. For Hawaii, near to slightly  
below-normal temperatures are favored for the state. 
 
Above-normal precipitation is favored across most of the country during the  
6-10 day period. The highest chances for above-normal precipitation are  
forecast in the southwestern CONUS and in the Mississippi Valley and Great  
Lakes. In the southwestern CONUS, a deep trough will be moving through the  
region early in the period bringing a period of unsettled weather to the area.  
Additionally, the precipitation climatology for this region for late March is  
relatively low, increasing chances for any precipitation to exceed normal. As  
this trough progresses inland, lee-side cyclogenesis is forecast to develop and  
will track into towards the Great Lakes and an associated frontal system may  
extend towards the Gulf Coast. In Alaska, above-normal precipitation is  
forecast across much of the Mainland with below-normal forecast in parts of  
Southeast Alaska as the above-normal 500-hPa heights may displace the storm  
track northwards. In Hawaii, near to below-normal precipitation is forecast. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 20% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered  
on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 20%  
of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: About-average, 3 out of 5, due to  
fair agreement among all the model tools for much of the country offset by the  
very progressive nature of the pattern. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 26 - APR 01, 2024  
 
The week-2 height forecast is less certain than the 6-10 day period. The  
ensemble dynamical tool means are less amplified relative to the earlier period  
with lesser agreement on the placement of the height anomalies. Generally, the  
tools maintain an area of negative 500-hPa height anomalies over the CONUS with  
positive 500-hPa height anomalies across much of Alaska and Canada. However,  
the weekly means don’t tell the whole story due to the progressive nature of  
the pattern during the period. At the onset of the period, deep mid-level low  
pressure is forecast across the center of the CONUS with strong positive  
mid-level anomalies forecast for the Northeast. The negative 500-hPa height  
anomalies are forecast to progress eastward into the Great Lakes and weaken  
while shifting the positive 500-hPa anomalies over the Northeast offshore.  
Meanwhile, a second area of negative anomalies and associated troughing is  
forecast to move inland from the eastern Pacific; however, at this time, this  
trough is forecast to be less amplified relative to the trough early in the  
period. In Alaska, positive 500-hPa height anomalies at the onset of the period  
are likely to be displaced by negative 500-hPa height anomalies by the end of  
week-2. In Hawaii, tools are generally mixed but lean towards positive 500-hPa  
height anomalies during the period. 
 
 
In week-2 as the mid-level trough progresses eastward, displacing the 500-hPa  
height anomalies across the northeastern CONUS in the 6-10 day, below-normal  
temperature chances extend eastward into the Ohio, Tennessee, Lower-Mississippi  
Valley, and parts of the Southeast while maintaining coverage across the  
western CONUS. Probabilities are slightly reduced across the Northern Plains  
relative to the 6-10 day period but chances continue to exceed 60% for  
below-normal temperatures across this region. In the Northeast, probabilities  
exceed 50% for above-normal temperatures ahead of the trough. In Alaska, with  
500-hPa height anomalies relaxing and forecast to turn negative by the end of  
the period, the strong chances for above-normal temperatures forecast in the  
6-10 day period are significantly reduced and focused in the southwestern  
Mainland. Near- to below-normal temperatures are forecast for the North Slope,  
eastern Mainland and Southeast Alaska. In Hawaii, below-normal temperatures are  
slightly favored. 
 
During week-2, above-normal precipitation remains most likely for much of the  
country, although with weaker probabilities relative to the 6-10 day period, as  
Pacific flow continues to bring moist air into the CONUS. In the southwestern  
CONUS, slightly elevated chances of above-normal precipitation are forecast due  
to continued unsettled weather and potential for a second area of troughing to  
move onshore during the period. Meanwhile, in the East a baroclinic zone is  
likely to become established as the trough progresses eastward. This slightly  
enhances chances for above-normal precipitation across the East Coast. In parts  
of the Northern and Southern Plains near to below-normal precipitation is  
favored for areas displaced from the main storm track. In Alaska, above-normal  
precipitation is slightly favored for central and southern Mainland Alaska  
along with Southeast. As the strong ridging across the state breaks down it may  
allow for more precipitation to work into southern Alaska. Near-normal  
precipitation is favored for Hawaii consistent with the blend of tools and  
consolidation tools. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered  
on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20%  
of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to fair  
agreement between the dynamical tools on the 500-hPa height pattern and in the  
sensible weather tools offset by the continued progressive pattern 
 
FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in  
the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
March 21. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
20000331 - 19920311 - 19920330 - 19880312 - 19620330 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
20000330 - 19920311 - 19920329 - 20050311 - 19880311 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Mar 24 - 28 2024 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A      
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A      
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A      
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A      
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A      
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A      
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     B    A      
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A      
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A      
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    B      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Mar 26 - Apr 01, 2024 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A      
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A      
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A      
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A      
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A      
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A      
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    B     W TEXAS     B    N      
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A      
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    A      
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    N    A      
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    B    A      
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    N    A      
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    A      
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    N    A     AK N SLOPE  N    N      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  N    N      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    N    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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