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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: Feb 19 - 23, 2012 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Feb 21 - 27, 2012 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Feb 13, 2012 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EST MON FEBRUARY 13 2012
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 19 - 23 2012
TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A BROAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CONUS, WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA,
WESTERN CANADA, AND EASTERN ALASKA. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
RECENT OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS, ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES AS THEY DEPICT A DEEPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE
LATEST 0Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL SOLUTION IS VERY SIMILAR TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHILE
THE MOST RECENT OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE 12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, AND MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 10 AND BE CLOSE TO ZERO BY DAY 14. THE AO INDEX
WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO ZERO BY DAY 7 AND
REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH DAY 14, ALTHOUGH THERE IS LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
OVER FLORIDA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.
ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCES THE ODDS
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ALASKA AND INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. AN AIRMASS OF MOSTLY PACIFIC ORIGIN LEADS TO ENHANCED ODDS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CONUS AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE ANOMALY
CENTER AT 40N 142W LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS,
GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST, AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. COMPOSITES FROM PRECIPITATION ANALOGS OF THE BLENDED HEIGHT
CHART LEADS TO THE EXPECTATION OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA.
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15
PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAYS 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN (TIED)
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5
DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE TOOLS DERIVED FROM THEM.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 21 - 27 2012
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEEK 2 CIRCULATION PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS
IS SLOWER TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COMPARED TO ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN, WHILE THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS QUICKER TO DO SO. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI
DIGRAMS INDICATE RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, AND
MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN CONUS.
TODAYS WEEK 2 BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC, AND ALONG MOST OF THE WEST COAST, AND NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.
ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WEST COAST, WHILE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCES THE ODDS
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN ALASKA AND INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS.
THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE
ANOMALY CENTER AT 39N 143W LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND
GREAT LAKES, AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
COMPOSITES FROM PRECIPITATION ANALOGS OF THE BLENDED HEIGHT CHART, AND THE
NAEFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST LEADS TO ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN,
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND WESTERN ALASKA.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15
PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE TOOLS DERIVED
FROM THEM.
FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASSIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 16
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19770207 - 20060208 - 19810125 - 20000131 - 19880227
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20000130 - 19810126 - 20010124 - 19770207 - 20060209
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 19 - 23 2012
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B N NEVADA B B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING B N
UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B B
NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B
MINNESOTA N B IOWA N N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 21 - 27 2012
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B N NEVADA B B
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B N
UTAH B N ARIZONA B B COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE N N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
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