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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Sep 24 - 28, 2017 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Sep 26 - Oct 02, 2017 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Sep 18, 2017

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT MON SEPTEMBER 18 2017 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 24 - 28 2017 
 
TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN OVER  
MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ALONG THE EAST COAST  
OF THE CONUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANES JOSE  
AND MARIA. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND A DEEP, POSITIVELY  
TILTED TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. RIDGING AND  
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED DOWNSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND  
NORTHEAST. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS HIGH NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS IN  
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PREDICTED PATHS OF HURRICANES JOSE AND MARIA. MOST ECMWF  
AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CURVE JOSE OUT TO SEA PRIOR TO THE PERIOD BUT A  
SUBSET OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THEN RE-CURVE IT CLOSER TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST  
NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAKER SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, MOST ENSEMBLE  
MEMBERS FROM THE ECMWF AND THE GFS CURVE MARIA NORTHWARD CLOSE TO THE EAST  
COAST DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD CLOSELY  
MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE NHC FOR TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND  
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM BOTH MARIA AND JOSE. TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND  
IS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY TOWARD THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION BASED  
PRIMARILY ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL. 
 
THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST, EXTENDING TO MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED ALONG PASTS OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DUE, IN  
PART, TO ABOVE NORMAL SSTS. RIDGING AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AHEAD OF  
THE TROUGH ENHANCE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN  
CONUS AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS BEHIND A PREDICTED TROUGH. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS EAST OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THE TROUGH OVER ALASKA LEADS TO INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AS WELL AS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. RIDGING AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST NORTHWARD TO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE EAST COAST DUE TO POTENTIAL EFFECTS FROM HURRICANES JOSE AND MARIA. UNCERTAINTIES ARE HIGH FOR THIS REGION AND PROBABILITIES ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN OFFSET BY HIGH UNCERTAINTY ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH RESPECT TO HURRICANES JOSE AND MARIA. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 26 - OCT 02, 2017 DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY AND TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING WEEK-2. BEHIND IT, A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WHILE A TROUGH IS INDICATED OVER WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PREDICTED NEAR THE EAST COAST AND UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ELEVATED AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE MARIA INTO THE WEEK-2 TIME PERIOD. MEAN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA IS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF OR GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC OR NORTHEAST COAST. INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES REGARDING HURRICANE MARIA DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS / GREAT LAKES. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND GULF COAST REGION. RIDGING LEADS TO INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AS WELL AS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE UNDERNEATH EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS EXTENDING TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH CYCLONIC FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC EAST OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND ALSO DUE TO POTENTIAL EFFECTS FROM HURRICANE MARIA. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. RIDGING LEADS TO FAVORED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA LEADS TO INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN ALASKA UNDERNEATH MEAN EASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 5% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 5% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO A DE-AMPLIFYING PATTERN AS WELL AS UNCERTAINTIES SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE MARIA. FORECASTER: SCOTT H NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 21
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20040912 - 20070930 - 19990904 - 19580922 - 20070925
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20040913 - 20070927 - 20040918 - 19780917 - 19580921 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR SEP 24 - 28 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A B NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR SEP 26 - OCT 02, 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH B B ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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