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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Apr 24 - 28, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Apr 26 - May 02, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Apr 18, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT FRI APRIL 18 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 24 - 28 2014 
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA FLOW  
PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. HOWEVER, THERE IS LARGE SPREAD AND  
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE COMPONENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. A  
STRONG JET IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC CULMINATING WITH A TROUGH NEAR  
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH, LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW IS  
PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. OVER THE ALASKA SECTOR, A TROUGH IS PREDICTED  
FOR THE BERING SEA EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE DETERMINISTIC  
RUNS FROM THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR  
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD, TODAY'S OFFICIAL  
MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEAN  
SOLUTIONS. 
 
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS  
DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE WEST COAST. ABOVE-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH  
LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW AND WEAKLY POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE TROUGH  
FORECAST OVER THE WEST COAST ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF CALIFORNIA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO  
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST IN  
ASSOCIATION WITH TROUGHS PREDICTED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND  
COAST, RESPECTIVELY. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR  
MUCH OF ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH AXIS FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS. 
 
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN  
CONUS DUE TO A TROUGH FORECAST NEAR THE WEST COAST. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO AFFECT THESE REGIONS. CONVERSELY, THERE ARE INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK RIDGING. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED JUST OFF THE COAST. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPECTED MEAN STORM TRACK. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER NORTH AMERICA. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 26 - MAY 02, 2014 DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A FAIRLY STRONG JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH, MOST MODELS PREDICT A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND FLAT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A MORE DISTINCT SPLIT FLOW AND A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND OFF THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC GFS ON THE DETAILS OF THESE FEATURES. OVER ALASKA, THE MODELS GENERALLY PREDICT A TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. TODAY'S WEEK TWO MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM THE ECMWF. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A TROUGH FORECAST NEAR THE WEST COAST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH PREDICTED WEAKLY POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AND LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW. CONVERSELY, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER EASTERN CANADA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FORECAST TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST RELATED TO A TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE WEST COAST. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO AFFECT THESE REGIONS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE RELATED TO A TROUGH FORECAST OFF THE COAST. NEAR TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPECTED MEAN STORM TRACK. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD. FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY 15
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19940405 - 20040421 - 19930427 - 19940429 - 19690416
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19930427 - 19940430 - 19690415 - 19940404 - 20040421 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR APR 24 - 28 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN N A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR APR 26 - MAY 02, 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B N IOWA N N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B A RHODE IS B N PENN N A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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