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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Feb 01 - 05, 2015 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Feb 03 - 09, 2015 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jan 26, 2015

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST MON JANUARY 26 2015 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 01 - 05 2015 
 
TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN  
FORECAST OVER NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN NORTH  
AMERICA, THE SOUTHWEST CONUS, AND THE GULF OF ALASKA, WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST  
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. RECENT CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE  
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND LESS  
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THESE  
FORECASTS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND. THE LATEST GFS AND  
ECMWF HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS ARE BASICALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR  
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS DEPICT A  
CLOSED-OFF TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHEREAS THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT AN OPEN  
TROUGH OVER THIS REGION. 
 
THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD OVER THE  
EASTERN CONUS, AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, ESPECIALLY  
IN REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE PNA  
INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO ZERO BY DAY 7, 
BE POSITIVE BY DAY 10, AND REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH  
RECENTLY HAS BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR ZERO BY DAY 7, BE POSITIVE BY  
DAY 10, AND REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TODAY'S BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT  
CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF  
THE CONUS, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL  
HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, AND THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. 
 
THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF BELOW  
NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF  
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS  
TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE AND AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST FOR THE  
WESTERN CONUS ENHANCE THE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE  
WESTERN U.S. AND WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ALASKA WHILE ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW  
ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. 
  
THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION  
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC  
FLOW AND ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN  
CONUS TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND  
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR  
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THE TROUGH  
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION  
FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST, AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW ENHANCES  
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN  
ALASKA. 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10%  
OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 15% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND  
10% OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7  
  
 
MODEL OF THE DAY: 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE (TIED).  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, AND A PERSISTENT, HIGHLY AMPLIFIED  
PATTERN. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 03 - 09 2015  
 
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGHS  
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND  
PROGRESS TO THE EAST. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS.  
THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A BIT SLOWER TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE  
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GFS FORECASTS SHOW POOR RUN TO RUN  
CONSISTENCY AND WERE DISCOUNTED. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS CONTINUE TO  
INDICATE RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MODERATE TO LARGE  
SPREAD OVER THE WEST. 
 
TODAY'S WEEK 2 BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE  
EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AND ALL BUT FAR WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS,  
WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WESTERN THREE  
QUARTERS OF THE CONUS. 
 
THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE  
EXPECTED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE  
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, THE AREA OF EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE  
CENTRAL CONUS SHRINKS A BIT AS THE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPANDS  
EASTWARD. 
 
AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS THE AREA OF EXPECTED BELOW MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION EXPANDS TO THE EAST. A DRIER PATTERN IS ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR THE  
CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING WEEK 2. 
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z  
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE  
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, AND A PERSISTENT, RELATIVELY  
AMPLIFIED PATTERN. 
 
FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
FEBRUARY 19 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19620131 - 19540207 - 19760119 - 19540201 - 19930128 
 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19620130 - 19760119 - 19840205 - 19540206 - 19840131 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 01 - 05 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    B      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    A    B      
NEW MEXICO  B    N     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    A    B      
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    N    N      
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A      
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B      
ARKANSAS    B    N     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    B      
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    A      
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    N      
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    B    N      
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    B      
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N      
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N      
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    A      
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    A      
FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  B    B      
AK ALEUTIAN B    B     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    B      
AK S INT    B    B     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 03 - 09 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    B      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B      
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B      
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A      
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    N    B      
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    B     WISCONSIN   B    B      
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    B     MICHIGAN    B    B      
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B      
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    B     NEW YORK    B    B      
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A      
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    N      
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    B      
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    N      
N CAROLINA  B    N     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N      
FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    B    A     AK N SLOPE  B    B      
AK ALEUTIAN B    B     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    B      
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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