West Region	East Region

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From October 20-31, the full ITF remained north of its climatological mean position, despite characteristic rapid southward progression. The mean position of the western portion of the ITF between 10W-10E is approximated at 13.9 degrees N, which represents a large southward shift of 2.5 degrees compared to the previous dekad. With much of the western portion of the ITF still located north of its climatological position, rainfall remained above normal to end October. During the 2019 season, the western portion of the ITF started south of climatology, spent the middle of the season near or above its climatological position, ended with 3 straight above-normal dekads. The mean position of the eastern portion of the ITF between 20E-35E is 13.1 degrees N, which represents a southward shift of 2.1 degrees compared to the previous dekad. This still puts the ITF location above the average position of 11.5 degrees N. As such, rainfall remained abnormally heavy across parts of East Africa leading to numerous flooding problems. The eastern portion of the ITF has been north of its climatology for the majority of dekads in 2019 and for the last 3 weeks of the season. Figure 1 shows the current position of the ITF relative to the long-term average position during the 3rd dekad of October and its previous position during the 2nd dekad of October. Figures 2 and 3 are time series, illustrating the latitudinal values of the western and eastern portions of the ITF, respectively, and their seasonal evolutions since April, 2019.

Dekad	15W	10W	5W	0	5E	10E	15E	20E	25E	30E	35E
April 1	11.1	11.1	10.7	11.2	11.4	10.2	8.9	8.9	8.9	8.9	8.6
April 2	9.0	9.0	12.0	12.0	11.0	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0	9.0
April 3	12.5	11.5	13.1	13.7	13.0	11.2	10.3	10.3	9.3	9.5	10.3
May 1	12.7	12.4	13.5	14.1	15.2	14.3	13.3	12.6	11.7	11.7	11.9
May 2	13.8	12.8	14.6	15.1	15.6	14.7	14.2	13.9	13.4	12.8	12.7
May 3	13.8	13.4	15.1	15.7	16.6	16.5	15.9	15.2	14.1	14.3	15.7
June 1	15.1	15.4	15.7	17.3	18.0	17.3	16.8	16.2	14.9	15.1	15.5
June 2	15.6	15.6	17.1	17.7	17.4	16.3	16.2	15.3	14.0	13.5	14.4
June 3	16.4	17.1	18.2	18.7	18.6	17.9	17.3	15.7	14.7	15.4	16.1
July 1	17.4	19.0	19.8	19.2	19.0	17.7	17.5	16.5	15.5	14.8	15.6
July 2	17.6	19.0	18.8	19.1	18.6	18.3	18.6	18.1	16.0	16.4	17.1
July 3	17.3	18.4	18.8	19.8	19.9	18.6	18.3	16.8	15.1	15.5	16.5
August 1	16.8	18.4	19.4	19.3	18.8	18.2	18.0	17.5	16.5	17.4	18.0
August 2	17.7	19.6	19.8	20.1	19.1	19.5	19.8	19.0	17.8	19.1	21.0
August 3	19.5	21.7	22.1	21.8	20.6	19.8	19.1	17.9	16.1	14.9	15.9
September 1	20.8	19.1	18.9	18.8	18.4	17.8	17.3	17.0	14.8	15.3	16.7
September 2	19.4	20.6	19.8	18.4	17.1	16.2	16.1	15.5	14.6	15.5	17.4
September 3	17.7	18.8	18.1	16.4	15.2	12.9	14.0	14.7	14.2	14.8	15.9
October 1	18.6	19.3	18.0	17.5	17.0	16.6	16.7	15.8	14.9	15.4	16.8
October 2	17.9	17.9	16.9	16.6	16.1	14.5	15.6	15.4	14.8	15.0	15.7
October 3	14.3	14.4	14.5	14.1	13.6	12.7	13.2	13.6	12.6	12.6	13.4