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As of the May 19th, 2017, release, Week 3-4 outlooks precipitation outlooks are experimental, whereas the temperature outlooks are operational. Both are issued Friday between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time.
HOME> Outlook Maps> Week 3-4 Outlooks

Week 3-4 Outlooks
Valid: 02 Mar 2019 to 15 Mar 2019
Updated: 15 Feb 2019

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Temperature Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

Click HERE for information about how to read Week 3-4 outlook maps

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Mar 02 2019-Fri Mar 15 2019

The Week 3/4 forecast period begins with uncertain MJO and ENSO signals. The MJO is in Phase 1 but its future is questionable. The ECMWF and CFS forecast the oscillation to continue through through Phases 1, 2, and 3 with moderate amplitude during the next month, however most other models suggests that the MJO will weaken during the next couple of weeks. If the ECMWF and CFS are correct, then the MJO will be around Phases 2 and 3 during the Week 3/4 period, which would favor anomalously cold conditions over much of the CONUS. The mean atmospheric pattern over the Northern Hemisphere has failed to couple to the anomalously warm SSTs in the equatorial Pacific. This lack of atmospheric-oceanic coupling reduces our ability to use this important low-frequency state as a Week 3/4 predictor.

The ECMWF and JMA models, along with several SubX models, suggest an annular upper-level height pattern over the northern latitudes during the forecast period, which is reminiscent of a positive AO pattern. However, these models also suggest weaknesses in the polar jet over North America. The ECMWF and JMA are in especially good agreement forecasting anomalous ridging over the Gulf of Alaska and anomalous troughing over the western CONUS during Week-3 that then weakens during Week-4. The CFS and most of the SubX models, which are all initialized using older initial conditions than the ECMWF and JMA, place the mean troughing further east during both Weeks 3 and 4, but it appears that the model trend is to move that troughing further west, more in-line with the ECMWF and JMA.

Today's forecast is essentially a blend of the dynamical models and subseasonal information. The aforementioned weakness in the jet is forecast to lead to below-normal temperatures over the western CONUS and anomalous ridging just to the west is likely to lead to anomalous warmth over Alaska (the highest probabilities of 55% are in southern Alaska). Most dynamical guidance has trended towards near-normal temperatures in the eastern CONUS over the past few runs, but there is a consistent trend within the models for anomalous ridging off the southeastern coast which would make parts of coastal Georgia and the Florida Peninsula warmer than normal.

The dynamical guidance (every single model that we have) also strongly favors a mean storm track over the southeastern CONUS, leading to especially high confidence in above normal precipitation during Weeks 3 and 4. This is also consistent with an MJO Phase 2 forecast. There is good support for below-normal precipitation over the Northern Plains, which are forecast to be engulfed by cold high pressure. Above-normal precipitation is also forecast for parts of western Alaska, especially during Week-3.

Dynamical guidance over Hawaii favors broad high pressure during the Week 3/4 period, leading to a 60% chance of below normal precipitation and near normal temperatures.

Temperature Precipitation
Hilo EC B60
Kahului EC B60
Honolulu EC B60
Lihue EC B60

Forecaster: Kyle MacRitchie

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Feb 22, 2019

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period

These are two category outlooks and differ from official current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.

As of May 19, 2017, the temperature outlook is operational, while the precipitation outlook is still experimental

An ASCII (w/ HTML markup tags) text version of the written forecast is available.

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