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As of the May 19th, 2017, release, Week 3-4 outlooks precipitation outlooks are experimental, whereas the temperature outlooks are operational. Both are issued Friday between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time.
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Week 3-4 Outlooks
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Week 3-4 Outlooks
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Valid: 01 Mar 2025 to 14 Mar 2025 Updated: 14 Feb 2025
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Temperature Probability
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Precipitation Probability
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Experimental Week 3-4 500mb Outlook
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Click HERE for info about how to read Week 3-4 outlook maps
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Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025
Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Mar 01 2025-Fri Mar 14 2025
La Niña conditions are currently present and an advisory is in effect. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean. La Niña conditions are expected to persist through February-April (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May (60% chance).
There has been a steady eastward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) across the Indian Ocean and into the Western Pacific during the past several weeks. Dynamical models indicate a continued eastward propagation into the Western Hemisphere with most solutions keeping the RMM signal outside of the unit circle until the start of the forecast period, when spread among the model members increases and the MJO loses amplitude.
The dynamical model guidance agrees on below average anomalies in the 500-hPa height field over the eastern half of North America and Greenland during the weeks 3-4 outlook period. Guidance disagrees most on the forecast height anomalies over Alaska. CFS and GEFS favor above average height anomalies over Alaska, while ECMWF and JMA favor below average heights over Alaska. In week 3 over CONUS, CFS and GEFS favor ridging in the west while ECMWF and JMA favor troughing in the same area. In week 4, a pattern shift is clear over CONUS, however the overall weeks 3-4 height pattern tends to average out to resemble the week 3 height anomalies. In week 4, most models agree on a westward and southward expansion of below average height anomalies.
The dynamical guidance for temperature outlooks varies the most for Alaska with CFS and GEFS indicating above average temperatures state-wide and ECMWF and JMA favoring cooler than average temperatures. This pattern appears in both week 3 and week 4, however in week 4, CFS and GEFS bring cooler than average conditions to eastern Alaska. Given the uncertainty in the model guidance, elevated chances for above average temperatures are forecast for western Alaska and Equal Chances (EC) is forecast for eastern Alaska.
During the outlook period, dynamical guidance agrees on warmer than average conditions across the central-third of CONUS. Models vary on the temperature outlook for the West Coast, with CFS, ECMWF, and JMA favoring a tilt toward below average temperatures. The models also agree on below average temperatures across New England but disagree on how far south, and west, that signal extends. CFS and GEFS favor the largest area with a below normal temperature outlook extending from the Great Lakes, south along the Mississippi Valley, and across the Mid-Atlantic. ECMWF and JMA keep the below average signal northeast of the Ohio Valley.
However, all dynamical guidance indicates a shift to elevated chances of below average temperatures in week 4 for several regions in northern CONUS. Across CONUS, the CFS, GEFS, and JMA are most bullish with a change to increased chances of cooler than average conditions for the Northern Tier and western CONUS in week 4. ECMWF also forecasts a shift to cooler than average temperatures in week 4, but restrains it to the Mid-Atlantic.
Given the enhanced MJO signal and background La Niña conditions, statistical guidance trained on these signals indicates a significant cooling is possible for the upper tier of CONUS during the outlook period. However, as noted, the dynamical guidance tempers this cooler signal for the weeks 3-4 outlook, especially in week 3.
The temperature forecast for CONUS during this outlook period indicates elevated chances of below normal temperatures in the Northeast, and elevated chances of above average temperatures across the Southern Plains. EC is forecast in the Northwest, along the West Coast, and Northern tier in deference to the potential pattern shift, and uncertainty in week 4, that is forecast by the dynamical models.
Precipitation forecasts were largely in agreement across the dynamical guidance. Elevated chances of wetter than average conditions are forecast for the Northwest, Northern California, Inter-Mountain West, and Ohio Valley. Models disagree on where the above average precipitation signal is located for the Ohio Valley. CFS positions the above signal over North Carolina. GEFS extends the above signal along the Appalachians and southward to the Gulf Coast. Both ECMWF and JMA center the above signal over the Ohio Valley, West Virginia, and northward through New England (minus New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine). Given the confidence in the model forecasts for wetter than average conditions in the east, a large area of elevated chances for above average precipitation is forecast for the region. The models also agree on a drier than average signal mostly centered over the Southern Plains. CFS extends the dry signal northward to the Great Lakes. Elevated chances of drier than average conditions are forecast for the Southern Plains. Precipitation signals across Alaska are weak among the models, as such, EC is forecast state-wide.
For Hawaii, surrounding SST anomalies are near normal. The temperature outlook favors near normal temperatures for all the islands except Kahului where model guidance indicates slightly enhanced chances of above average temperatures (55%). Precipitation is forecast with EC for Hilo, with week 3 forecast to be drier than in week 4. Wetter than average conditions are forecast for the remaining islands, with most of the precipitation forecast to arrive during week 4.
| Temperature | Precipitation |
| FCST | FCST |
Hilo | EC | EC |
Kahului | A55 | A55 |
Honolulu | EC | A55 |
Lihue | EC | A55 |
Forecaster: Emerson LaJoie
The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Feb 21, 2025
These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period
These are two category outlooks and differ from official current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.
The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).
The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).
In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.
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An ASCII (w/ HTML markup tags) text version of the written forecast is available.
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