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As of the May 19th, 2017, release, Week 3-4 outlooks precipitation outlooks are experimental, whereas the temperature outlooks are operational. Both are issued Friday between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time.
HOME> Outlook Maps> Week 3-4 Outlooks

Week 3-4 Outlooks
Valid: 11 Apr 2020 to 24 Apr 2020
Updated: 27 Mar 2020

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Temperature Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

Click HERE for information about how to read Week 3-4 outlook maps

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Mar 27 2020

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Apr 11 2020-Fri Apr 24 2020

The CPC velocity potential-based and RMM-based MJO indices both indicate an active signal, with the enhanced phase moving over the eastern Indian Ocean. While there has been a robust intraseasonal projection in the wind fields, until recently the convective pattern has not exhibited robust anomalies consistent with MJO activity. The GEFS forecasts robust MJO activity over the next two weeks, while the ECMWF weakens the signal over the Pacific and resumes the fast eastward propagation in the wind field that has been observed since early March. Due to the lack of a robust convective response, the ECMWF solution is favored, and therefore the MJO is not anticipated to play a substantial role in the evolution of the midlatitude pattern during the Week-34 period. More weight is given in this outlook to dynamical model consensus and long term trends rather than statistical model guidance based on MJO activity. Additionally, abnormally warm SSTs across the equatorial Pacific are generating a warm ENSO response in the statistical guidance.

Dynamical model 500hPa height anomaly forecasts during Week-34 show a fairly consistent evolution from the forecast state during Week-2. While a generally positive AO structure is favored to continue, anomalous ridging over the North Pacific and western North America allows the potential for height falls across eastern Canada and parts of the Northeast. This pattern change favors warming across Alaska and parts of the Northwest, while increasing the potential for late season cold air outbreaks across parts of the northern tier of the CONUS. Troughing over the North Atlantic would limit the potential for blocking. Additionally, the CFS and Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) multi-model ensemble suggest the potential for weakness in the height field across the Southwest with an active southern stream, while most of the guidance maintains ridging across Florida or parts of the Southeast.

Based on the anticipated height pattern, above-normal temperatures are favored across Alaska and the Northwest, with below-normal temperatures favored across the northern Great Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. This forecast is weighted more towards the dynamical model solutions, particularly the ECMWF, rather than the multiple linear regression (MLR) statistical tool, which has substantial contributions from the MJO and ENSO components. A fairly tight temperature gradient is possible across the East, with above-normal temperatures more likely along the Gulf Coast due to ridging in the vicinity of Florida.

Consistent with the potential for a mean frontal boundary in the vicinity of the sharp north-south temperature gradient over the East, above-median precipitation is favored across the lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and much of the Southeast. Dynamical models differ on the exact location for the focus of heavy precipitation, with the CFS solution centering the largest anomalies over the lower Mississippi Valley, the ECMWF over the Deep South, and the more suppressed JMA over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Further west, below-median precipitation is favored for the Rio Grande Valley based on long term trends and dynamical model forecasts, though coverage was reduced in comparison to the model forecasts due to the potential for an active southern stream. The potential for weakness in the height field over the Southwest favors above-median precipitation for California and the Great Basin, although the forecast anomalies are fairly small amid a rapidly drying climatology. Dynamical model forecasts were mixed across mainland Alaska, but there was fairly good agreement favoring below-median precipitation across the southern coast and Panhandle regions.

The latest SubX guidance indicates near normal temperatures in the vicinity of Hawaii. Enhanced ITCZ convection across the North Pacific and a pattern favoring moisture entrainment favors above-median precipitation for Hawaii, with model consensus resulting in the highest probabilities across the northwestern islands.

Temperature Precipitation
Hilo EC EC
Kahului EC A55
Honolulu EC A60
Lihue EC A70

Forecaster: Adam Allgood

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Apr 03, 2020

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period

These are two category outlooks and differ from official current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.

As of May 19, 2017, the temperature outlook is operational, while the precipitation outlook is still experimental

An ASCII (w/ HTML markup tags) text version of the written forecast is available.

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