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As of the May 19th, 2017, release, Week 3-4 outlooks precipitation outlooks are experimental, whereas the temperature outlooks are operational. Both are issued Friday between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time.
HOME> Outlook Maps> Week 3-4 Outlooks

Week 3-4 Outlooks
Valid: 06 Jul 2024 to 19 Jul 2024
Updated: 21 Jun 2024

Temperature Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

Experimental Week 3-4 500mb Outlook

Click HERE for info about how to read Week 3-4 outlook maps

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jul 06 2024-Fri Jul 19 2024

The Weeks 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are for the mid-summer weeks of July 6-19, 2024. Examining tropical conditions, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have trended toward El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions, with Niño3.4 anomalies near 0 deg C. Subseasonal tropical variability associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently disorganized and most dynamical model ensemble guidance forecasts it to remain incoherent through the remainder of June and early July. Even if ENSO and MJO forcing were forecast to be strong, it is typical during July for their teleconnections to be less robust due to the northward displacement and weakening of the subtropical jet which leads to a diminished Rossby wave source. Thus, for this current forecast, neither ENSO nor the MJO are expected to provide substantial forcing on the eventual temperature and precipitation outcomes at Weeks 3-4.

Leaving the tropics and surveying potential extratropical forcings, coastal SST anomalies are currently negative along the western and southern coasts of AK. They are also slightly negative along the West Coast. Along the East Coast and Gulf Coast, SST anomalies are strongly positive. Current soil moisture anomalies and upcoming expected rainfall indicates an enhanced likelihood of a broad swath of below normal soil moisture conditions stretching from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and from the Lower Great Lakes to the Southeast. Above normal soil moisture anomalies are anticipated in Southern Texas and the Upper Mississippi Valley where heavy rainfall has recently occurred or is forecast to occur over the next week. With respect to long-term trends, precipitation leans toward drier conditions in western CONUS and toward wetter conditions along the mid-Atlantic and New England during July. Temperature trends are positive everywhere in CONUS and AK.

The dynamical model 500-hPa height forecasts from the ECMWF, GEFSv12, CFSv2, JMA reveal overall agreement in positive height anomalies over all of CONUS with some near normal or even negative anomalies near Alaska. Examining individual models and Weeks 3 and 4 separately reveals some transient weakness or relative troughing in the above normal heights over CONUS, mainly in the Pacific Northwest and Upper Mississippi River Valley. Pinning down the exact timing and location of these weak troughs is difficult, but their overall impact on the outlook is expected to be relatively minor in the two-week mean of Weeks 3-4. With respect to the highest height anomalies, there is some decent model consensus that the axis of strongest ridging will stretch from the Intermountain West to the Ohio Valley.

Consistent with these 500-hPa height anomalies and the long-term temperature trend, nearly all of CONUS features elevated probabilities for above normal temperatures. The highest odds of 70-80% are centered over the Central Rockies and the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast, where ridging looks to remain in place throughout much of the period. With respect to the Mid-Atlantic, there is some potential for the region to experience excessive heat during Week 3, on par with a top 10 hottest second week of July on record. The immediate East Coast and Gulf Coast are also expected to be warmer than normal due to elevated coastal SSTs. Lower odds of 50-55% are featured in the Upper Mississippi River Valley where positive soil moisture anomalies and transient troughing decreases the confidence of above normal temperatures. Similar odds are posted near southern New Mexico where monsoon moisture may begin to dampen temperatures. Weaker probabilities of above normal temperatures are forecast for the immediate West Coast, where negative coastal SST anomalies coupled with above normal continental temperatures may lead to an enhanced, cooling sea breeze. For AK, the temperature outlook is for elevated odds of below normal temperatures over the southwest Mainland and Aleutians where coastal SSTs are below normal and height anomalies indicate the presence of northwesterly flow. Above normal temperatures are favored along the eastern portions of the North Slope, supported by strong long-term trends in that region.

The precipitation outlook over CONUS is much less confident than the temperature outlook, which is typical during the summer months due to the stochastic nature of convection and the uncertainty of any impacts from tropical cyclones. Given the expected positive height anomalies and relatively decent model agreement, below normal precipitation is favored over the Intermountain West and portions of the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic. With respect to the latter region, the Climate Prediction Center’s Day 8-14 U.S. Hazards Outlook reveals rapid onset drought may develop over portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast during Week 2, thus continued dryness into Weeks 3-4 is concerning and needs monitoring. Over the Intermountain West, 60-70% probabilities of below normal precipitation are forecast due to the ridging that is forecast along with strong model agreement. Above normal precipitation is expected over the Upper Mississippi River Valley as transient troughs translate eastward north of the ridge. Above normal precipitation is also favored among the immediate Gulf Coast and Florida, as enhanced SSTs and the possibility of increased tropical depression or cyclone activity raises the odds there. Slightly elevated probabilities of above normal precipitation are also posted for Alaska, under expected troughing and unsettled weather in the region. Finally, a slight tilt in the odds for above normal precipitation is forecast in the monsoon region of the Desert Southwest, as moisture flux into the region looks possible during the end of Week 2 and persisting into Week 3. Furthermore, the upper-level pattern is supportive of monsoon activity. It should be noted that the JMA is very bullish with monsoon precipitation with odds exceeding 70 to 75% northward from the Desert Southwest through southern Wyoming. The JMA has relatively high historical skill in this region, but the forecasted odds are toned down given the less bullish ECMWF and GEFS solutions.

For Hawaii, SST anomalies are slightly above normal surrounding the northwestern islands and slightly below normal near the southeastern islands. The temperature outlook is aligned with the anomalous SST gradient and is consistent with dynamical model output. Slightly below normal precipitation is expected across all the islands with the highest probabilities near Hilo.

Temperature Precipitation
Hilo B55 B60
Kahului EC B55
Honolulu EC B55
Lihue A55 B55

Forecaster: Cory Baggett

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Jun 28, 2024

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period

These are two category outlooks and differ from official current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.

As of May 19, 2017, the temperature outlook is operational, while the precipitation outlook is still experimental

An ASCII (w/ HTML markup tags) text version of the written forecast is available.

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