The 814 day Outlook gives the confidence that a forecaster has, given as a probability, that the observed temperature, averaged over upcoming days 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 will be in the range of one of three possible categories below (B), normal (N), or above (A). For any calendar 7day period, these categories can be defined by separating the 30 years of the climatology period, 19912020 (30 years), into the coldest 10 years, the middle 10 years, and the warmest 10 years.
Because each of these categories occurs 1/3 of the time (10 times) during 19912020, for any particular calendar 7day period, the probability of any category being selected at random from the 19912020 set of 30 observations is one in three (1/3), or 33.33%. This is also called the climatological probability. The sum of the climatological probabilities of the three categories is 100%.
Graphical Information The colored shading on the map indicates the degree of confidence the forecaster has in the category indicated, where "B" and blue colors indicate "belownormal" and "A" and orangered colors indicate "above normal". The darker the shading, the greater is the level of confidence. The numbers labeling the contours separating different shades gives the probability that the indicated category (A, B, or N) will occur.
The probabilities of all three categories are implied on the map, and sum to 100%. The forecast probabilities given on the map generally fall far short of complete confidence (100%) in any single category. When the probability of the above (A) or below (B) category is greater than 33.33% by some amount, the probability of the opposite category declines by that amount, while the probability of the middle category remains at 33.33%. In the event that the N category is greater than 33.33%, the probabilities of both the "A" and "B" categories is each reduced by 1/2 the amount that the "N" category exceeds 33.33%. When the probability of "A", or "B" reaches 63.33% or higher, the odds of the opposite category reach a minimum allowed value of 3.33%, while the odds of the middle category are allowed to drop below 33.33%.
The dashed contours on the map give the average of the temperature over the set of 30 observations for the calendar 7day period during 19912020, in degrees Farenheit.
