The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the
Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early
During June 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) were most
prominent in the eastern equatorial Pacific, with weakening evident near the
International Date Line (Fig. T18). This weakening was reflected in a decrease to
+0.6°C in the Niño-4 index (Table T2). The Niño-3.4 index remained
at +0.5°C for the month, while the easternmost Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 indices were
+0.9°C or greater. Subsurface
heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º-100ºW) have decreased substantially since late March 2014
and are now near average. However,
above-average subsurface temperatures remain prevalent near the surface (down
to 100m depth) in the eastern half of the Pacific (Fig. T17). The
upper-level and low-level winds over the tropical Pacific remained near
average, except for low-level westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific (Fig.
T20, T21). Convection was enhanced
near and just west of the Date Line and over portions of Indonesia (Fig.
T25). Still, the
lack of a clear and consistent atmospheric response to the positive SSTs
Over the last month, no
significant change was evident in the model forecasts of ENSO, with the
majority of models indicating El Niño onset within June-August and continuing
into early 2015 (Figs. F1-F13). The chance of a strong El Niño is not
favored in any of the ensemble averages for Niño-3.4. At this time, the forecasters anticipate El
Niño will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early
winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 1.4°C). The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the
Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter.
Weekly updates of oceanic
and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).