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Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
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About the Forecast Forum

ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

ENSO-CLIPER Model
All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13


Forecast Forum

SEPTEMBER 2014

EL NINO /SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.  Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.   Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8.  Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J. Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6, 1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.  Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12.  Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

 

ENSO Alert System Status:  El Niño Watch

 

Outlook:

 

El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

 

Discussion:  

 

During September 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. T18).  The monthly Niño indices ranged from +0.5C (Niño-3.4/ Niño-3) to +1.0C (Niño-1+2; Table T2). The change in subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º-100ºW) was also minimal due to the persistence of above-average temperatures at depth across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. T17).  Equatorial low-level winds were largely near average for the month, though brief periods of westerly wind anomalies continue to arise (Fig. T13).  Upper-level winds were also close to average for the month (Fig. T21).  The Southern Oscillation Index has remained negative (Table T1), and rainfall was near average around the Date Line, with a mix of positive and negative anomalies over Indonesia and Papua New Guinea (Fig. T25).  The lack of coherent atmospheric and oceanic features indicates the continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Figs. F1-F13).  The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Niño during the November 2014 - January 2015 season.  This El Niño will likely remain weak (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 0.9°C) throughout its duration.  In summary, El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).


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