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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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    0.5mn Jul 2016


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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2016

THE UPDATED MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR JULY 2016 ARE
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS), WPC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS DURING THE
FIRST WEEK OF JULY, THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOKS, WEEK 2 AND WEEKS 3-4 DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS CURRENT
CLIMATE CONDITIONS. DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THAT AN
MJO SIGNAL WILL BE PRESENT IN JULY. THEREFORE, THE MJO STATE AND THE CURRENT
ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WERE NOT CONSIDERED IN THE UPDATED JULY TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS.

WHILE THE AREA FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPANDED
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS, PROBABILITIES ARE JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES OF 33 PERCENT OVER MOST REGIONS. RECENT FORECASTS OF THE CFS OVER THE
LAST TWO WEEKS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, WHILE GENERALLY PREDICTING MOST
AREAS OF THE U.S. TO EXPERIENCE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHEN AVERAGED FOR
JULY. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS OF THE CFS, AS WELL AS WEEK 2 FORECASTS OF THE
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES, INDICATE A TENDENCY FOR INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, LEADING TO DECREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE REGION AND POTENTIALLY ACROSS LARGER PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FORECASTS OF
MONSOON PRECIPITATION OVER AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST ALSO LEAD TO A MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES AND A LESSER CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF
JULY THAN IN THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK MADE EARLIER THIS MONTH. ALONG WITH A
DECREASING CHANCE FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE CFS FOR THE MONTH OF
JULY AND OUT TO TWO WEEKS IN THE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS, THE PROBABILITY
OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAS INCREASED FOR THE SOUTHEAST IN THE JULY
OUTLOOK.

DYNAMICAL MODEL PREDICTIONS OF AN ENHANCED MONSOON FROM THE ENVIRONMENT CANADA
ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM AND THE CFS FOR THE MONTH OF JULY INDICATE
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. AN AREA
OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
THE WESTERN GULF COAST IN THE PREVIOUS JULY OUTLOOK HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
CURRENT JULY OUTLOOK, GIVEN DYNAMICAL MODEL PREDICTIONS OF BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MONTH. RECENT JULY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE
CFS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FOR THE REGION, LEADING TO AN INDICATION OF
EQUAL CHANCES. THE PREDICTION OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS MAINTAINED IN THE CURRENT OUTLOOK, SUPPORTED BY RECENT CFS
AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA JULY FORECASTS, AND OTHER DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH. AN AREA OF ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO
BE PREDICTED IN THE UPDATE OF THE JULY OUTLOOK, AS IN MODEL FORECASTS. RECENT
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT BELOW MEDIAN IS LESS LIKELY ALONG THE
COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SUCH THAT EQUAL CHANCES IS NOW INDICATED IN THE
UPDATE.

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IS REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ACROSS
ALASKA, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY, ACCORDING TO DYNAMICAL
MODEL PREDICTIONS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN COAST, WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES ARE AVERAGING MORE THAN 2.5 DEGREES C ABOVE-NORMAL. ENHANCED ODDS FOR
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE FOLLOWING CFS FORECASTS.

----------- PREVIOUS MESSAGE FROM JUNE 16 IS SHOWN BELOW ------------

THE JULY 2016 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE AND STATISTICAL TOOLS, INCLUDING CLIMATE RELATIONSHIPS TO SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE TROPICS, AND
THE EL NINO OF LATE 2015 AND EARLY 2016 HAS ENDED AND WILL NOT PLAY A ROLE IN
THE CLIMATE CONDITIONS FOR NORTH AMERICA IN JULY. PLEASE SEE THE ENSO
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/ENSO_ADVISORY/ FOR A
MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF ENSO CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE
MJO RECENTLY STRENGTHENED, BUT DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MJO SIGNAL
WILL WEAKEN BY JULY, AND MJO TELECONNECTIONS TO MID-LATITUDES ARE WEAKER DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE WARM SEASON. THE EVOLVING MJO, ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF EARLY SEASON TROPICAL STORM SYSTEMS, WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE UPDATE ON
JUNE 30. WITH CURRENTLY WEAK TROPICAL TELECONNECTIONS, THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR JULY 2016 ARE DERIVED PRIMARILY FROM THE LATEST
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS), THE NORTH
AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) AND THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
(IMME), MODEL GUIDANCE FOR WEEKS 3 AND 4 FROM THE CFS, JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL
AGENCY (JMA), AND ECMWF, AS WELL AS CLIMATE RELATIONSHIPS TO CURRENT SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS.

DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S., WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUS SOIL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
INFLUENCE ON JULY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS RANK ABOVE THE 80TH PERCENTILE ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE GREAT
PLAINS, WITH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WEEK 3 AND 4 FORECASTS OF THE CFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
SYSTEMS INDICATE A GREATER CHANCE OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF
TEXAS. THE AREA OF EQUAL-CHANCES OF ABOVE, NEAR AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS IS LARGELY BASED ON AREAS OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CALIBRATED NMME
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
ABOVE-MEDIAN SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, AS INDICATED BY A CONSTRUCTED ANALOG OF
SOIL MOISTURE, STATISTICAL TOOL. HOWEVER, THIS IS OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CURRENT
EVAPORATIVE DRYING OF THE SOIL MOISTURE. THE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THAT ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S., ARE
CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL PREDICTIONS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS, WHICH
INCORPORATE THE DECADAL CLIMATE WARMING TRENDS, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
INFLUENCE OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE PATTERNS.

CALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE NMME DYNAMICAL MODELS
INDICATE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA, POTENTIALLY RELATED TO ENHANCED TROPICAL
ACTIVITY. CALIBRATED NMME PRECIPITATION FORECASTS, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
DECADAL CLIMATE TREND, INDICATE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, INCLUDING THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ROCKIES, WASHINGTON AND OREGON.

NMME, INCLUDING CFS, DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON INCREASED
CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, SOUTHERN
COASTAL ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES ARE MORE THAN 1.5 DEGREES C ABOVE-NORMAL. A CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL
MODEL FORECASTS INDICATES AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.


FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS


THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.



THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK...FOR AUG ... WILL BE ISSUED ON THU JUL 21 2016


THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD.

$$

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