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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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    0.5mn Feb 2017


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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEBRUARY 2017

THE UPDATED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR FEBRUARY 2017 ARE BASED
LARGELY ON THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE (GFS, CFS, AND ECMWF), WPC'S
WEEK-1 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, CPC'S WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOKS, THE 384-HR TOTAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM THE LATEST GFS RUN
(12Z), WEEK 3/4 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE CFS AND ECMWF
MODELS, POTENTIAL INFLUENCES OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO), CURRENT
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OBSERVATIONS, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE U.S. COASTLINE.

THE UPDATED TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2017 FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S., WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHERE
EQUAL CHANCES (EC) IS INDICATED. PROBABILITIES IN EXCESS OF 60-PERCENT ARE
DEPICTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE PREDICTION OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
BASED UPON CPC'S LATEST WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, AND THE MOST RECENT WEEK
3/4 FORECASTS FROM THE CFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS. IT IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE
MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE MONTHLY CFS WHICH PREDICT WIDESPREAD ANOMALOUS WARMTH
ACROSS THE CONUS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FEBRUARY IS MORE UNCERTAIN FOR
ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED FOR ALASKA DURING THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD, WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF FEBRUARY. THEREFORE, MOST OF THE STATE IS DEPICTED AS EC, WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RESIDUAL AREA OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

THE UPDATED PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2017 FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GENERALLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE DAKOTAS, AND CONTINUING EASTWARD
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
SOME OF THE WESTERN PRECIPITATION TOTALS PREDICTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
FEBRUARY WOULD BE ENOUGH TO CARRY THOSE AREAS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH. ACCORDING
TO THE ECMWF WEEK-1 TOTAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST, ABOUT 8-10 INCHES IS EXPECTED
TO FALL (LIQUID EQUIVALENT) ACROSS OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA (INCLUDING THE NORTHERN SIERRAS), AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON DURING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
EXCEED 60-PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE PREDICTED SWATH OF
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. HAS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM CPC'S WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION MAP, TODAY'S 12Z
GFS 384-HR TOTAL PRECIPITATION GRAPHIC, AND THE WEEK 3/4 AND LATEST MONTHLY CFS
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE CURRENT STATUS OF THE
MJO. THE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE PHASE OF THE MJO IS PRESENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
MARITIME CONTINENT (PHASE 4), THOUGH THE SIGNAL IS WEAK. LAGGED COMPOSITES OF
200-HPA HEIGHT (USING PHASE 4 IN THIS CASE) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FAVOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITHIN THE FIRST WEEK OR SO
OF FEBRUARY, FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND SHORTLY THEREAFTER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE CONUS, THE UPDATED 30-DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SUPPORTED BY AT LEAST THE LAST 9 RUNS
OF THE CFS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR FEBRUARY, THE LATEST WEEK-2
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM CPC, AND THE MOST RECENT WEEK 3/4 PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOKS FROM BOTH THE CFS AND ECMWF. CONFLICTING AND/OR MIXED CLIMATE GUIDANCE
IS INDICATED FOR ALASKA; HENCE THE FORECAST OF EC FOR THE 49TH STATE.

------------------- PREVIOUS 30-DAY DISCUSSION FOLLOWS -------------------

THE FEBRUARY 2017 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON VARIOUS
CLIMATE MODELS, STATISTICAL TOOLS, AND THE LIKELY STATES OF PATTERNS OF
EXTRA-TROPICAL VARIABILITY. THE CURRENT LA NINA CONTINUES TO FADE, AND A
TRANSITION TO NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY FEBRUARY. CLIMATE SIGNALS
ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA WERE THEREFORE NOT LARGELY CONSIDERED.

THE MJO IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE, WITH THE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE PHASE OVER THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND AFRICA. DURING THE NEXT 2 WEEKS, THE ENHANCED PHASE IS
ANTICIPATED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN (AND PERHAPS EASTERN) INDIAN
OCEAN. THE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE (IOD) HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN ITS NEGATIVE PHASE,
WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION CONCENTRATED NEAR AND OVER THE MARITIME CONTINENT, AND
GENERALLY SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE INDIAN OCEAN AND WESTERN
PACIFIC. MJO COMPOSITES (BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT THE ENHANCED PHASE OF
THE MJO WILL REMAIN OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN) PROVIDE LITTLE GUIDANCE FOR THE U.S.
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR FEBRUARY.

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2017 IS VERY UNCERTAIN, PRIMARILY DUE TO
CONFLICTING DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL PREDICTIONS. THERE ARE ELEVATED CHANCES
OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEAR-COASTAL CALIFORNIA, AND ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHERN BORDER STATES TO, AND INCLUDING, THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED IN FEBRUARY FOR
APPROXIMATELY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALVES OF ALASKA, PART OF WHICH IS DUE
TO ABOVE-AVERAGE COASTAL SSTS. THE AREAS OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED VERSIONS OF THE
NMME, THE NCAR CLIMATE MODELS, THE CANADIAN MODELS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE
IMME (INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE), NASA, AND GFDL MODELS. EARLIER RUNS
OF THE CFS MODEL (ABOUT 10 DAYS AGO) PREDICTED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES, AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA.
SINCE THAT TIME, THE CFS HAS UNDERGONE SEVERAL TRANSITIONS. THE FIRST INVOLVED
A RELATIVELY COLD PATTERN EAST OF THE ROCKIES, AND A RELATIVELY WARM PATTERN
WEST OF THE ROCKIES. MOST RECENTLY, THE CFS FORECAST PATTERN HAS FLIPPED,
FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST, AND A RETURN
TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST. THE FLUCTUATIONS OF THE CFS
DURING THE PAST 10 DAYS SEEM TO SUGGEST A CIRCULATION PATTERN THAT HAS NOT YET
LOCKED IN TO A STABLE SOLUTION. THESE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CFS OUTPUT ARE ALSO
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PREDOMINANCE OF EQUAL CHANCES (EC) ANTICIPATED IN
THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS
BASED ON SOME OF THE CFS MODEL RUNS, THE NCAR CLIMATE MODELS, AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT, THE IMME. THIS AREA OF FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF DEEP SNOW COVER.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2017 IS ALSO FAIRLY UNCERTAIN, MOSTLY
DUE TO CONFLICTING DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. ODDS FOR
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND FROM
ABOUT ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION, AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE TWO AREAS OF FAVORED ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE SUPPORTED BY RECENT RUNS (ABOUT PAST 8-10 DAYS) OF THE
PROBABILISTIC CFS, AND TO SOME EXTENT, THE NMME, AND THE NASA MODEL.
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS CALIFORNIA, MOST OF NEVADA,
ARIZONA, NEW MEXICO, MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS. THIS IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CFS, WITH LESSER CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
THE SMLR, CCA, AND THE OCN. THE CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED NMME SOLUTIONS
SUPPORT RELATIVE DRYNESS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, AS DO THE CANADIAN
CANCM4 MODEL, NCAR, AND NASA GEOS5 RUNS.


FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA


THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.



THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK...FOR MAR ... WILL BE ISSUED ON THU FEB 16 2017


THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD.

$$

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