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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUNE 2016

THE UPDATED MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR JUNE 2016 ARE
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, WPC TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE, THE CPC 6-10/8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS, AND CLIMATE LINKAGES TO CURRENT SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS. THE MJO RECENTLY WEAKENED, BUT DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MORE ROBUST MJO SIGNAL DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN BY
MID-JUNE. EXCEPT FOR MODULATING TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY, THE MJO TYPICALLY
HAS LESS INFLUENCE ON THE EXTRATROPICS DURING THE WARM SEASON. THEREFORE, THE
MJO AND WANING EL NINO DID NOT PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE UPDATED JUNE
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.

THE AREA FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPANDED SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER IN THE UPDATED OUTLOOK DUE TO:
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE, BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FAVORED BY THE CFS MONTHLY, AND SOIL MOISTURE CONSIDERATIONS. AS
OF MAY 30, SOIL MOISTURE IS ABOVE THE 70TH PERCENTILE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH
TO TEXAS WITH PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND TEXAS ABOVE THE 99TH
PERCENTILE. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE UPDATED OUTLOOK SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
AVERAGE MORE THAN 15 DEGREES F ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE. THE COVERAGE OF INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
REDUCED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST DUE TO THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH EARLY
IN THE MONTH.

ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE MAINTAINED ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA, TEXAS, AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY AT THE
BEGINNING OF JUNE AND THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS IS BASED ON A
CONSISTENT WET SIGNAL EARLY IN JUNE. NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH PARTS OF NEW YORK
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO HAVE A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS
FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AS THIS REGION IS LIKELY TO BE INFLUENCED BY
CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY IN THE MONTH WITH WEAK PRECIPITATION SIGNALS THEREAFTER.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION INCLUDES THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY WHERE THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
FIRST TWO WEEKS OF JUNE AND THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES THIS DRY SIGNAL DURING
WEEKS 3 AND 4. ALSO, RECENT MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE CFS MODEL
HAVE TRENDED DRIER ACROSS THESE AREAS. DUE TO CONFLICTING PRECIPITATION SIGNALS
AT DIFFERENT TIME RANGES, EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE NECESSARY FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IS REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOKS ACROSS ALASKA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
AVERAGING NEAR 2.5 DEGREES C ABOVE-NORMAL. ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ALASKA PANHANDLE DUE TO EXPECTED
WETNESS DURING THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF JUNE.

----------- PREVIOUS MESSAGE (FROM MAY 19) IS SHOWN BELOW ------------

THE JUNE 2016 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE, STATISTICAL TOOLS, AND CLIMATE LINKAGES TO SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS. EL NINO IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A DIMINISHING ROLE IN CLIMATE ANOMALIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. PLEASE SEE THE ENSO DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/ENSO_ADVISORY/ FOR A
MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC. ALTHOUGH THE MJO STRENGTHENED DURING MID-MAY, ITS EFFECTS ON THE
EXTRATROPICS ARE LESS IMPACTFUL DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WARM SEASON. THE
EVOLVING MJO ALONG WITH ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INFLUENCE
ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EARLY SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR THE UPDATE ON MAY 31.

THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS DEPICT INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND EASTERN U.S., WHILE SOIL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON JUNE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE VALUES RANK ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS A
LARGE AREA OF THE GREAT PLAINS, WITH VALUES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO, MUCH OF
NEBRASKA, NORTHERN TEXAS, AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE
GREAT PLAINS ARE BASED ON THIS ANOMALOUS SOIL MOISTURE AND ARE ALSO SUPPORTED
BY THE CALIBRATED NMME TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. THE SPATIAL PATTERN FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND
STATISTICAL TOOLS.

A CONSENSUS FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FEATURES ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES, MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS, LOWER
TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE CALIBRATED NMME
PRECIPITATION TOOL INDICATES THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION, ALBEIT WITH MODEST PROBABILITIES, INCLUDE THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST.  A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS FOR
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS BASED ON THE
CFS MODEL FOR JUNE ALONG WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF MODEL FOR WEEKS 3 AND
4, WHICH COVERS THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF PREDICTABILITY OF
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ON A MONTHLY TIME SCALE.

THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN COASTAL ALASKA, AND
THE ALASKA PANHANDLE WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE AVERAGING MORE
THAN 1.5 DEGREES C ABOVE-NORMAL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A RELATIVELY WET
JUNE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA.


FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH


THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.



THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK...FOR JUL ... WILL BE ISSUED ON THU JUN 16 2016


THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD.

$$

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