Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

Text Discussions
   90day Prognostic
   30day Prognostic
   Hawaiian
   Tools


More Outlooks
    0.5mn FMA 2017
    1.5mn MAM 2017
    2.5mn AMJ 2017
    3.5mn MJJ 2017
    4.5mn JJA 2017
    5.5mn JAS 2017
    6.5mn ASO 2017
    7.5mn SON 2017
    8.5mn OND 2017
    9.5mn NDJ 2017
   10.5mn DJF 2017
   11.5mn JFM 2018
   12.5mn FMA 2018
    0.5mn Feb 2017


Tools Used (see Discussion for explanation)
   CCA
   OCN
   CMP
   SMT
   POE
 
HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EST THU JAN 19 2017

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEBRUARY 2017

THE FEBRUARY 2017 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON VARIOUS
CLIMATE MODELS, STATISTICAL TOOLS, AND THE LIKELY STATES OF PATTERNS OF
EXTRA-TROPICAL VARIABILITY. THE CURRENT LA NINA CONTINUES TO FADE, AND A
TRANSITION TO NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY FEBRUARY. CLIMATE SIGNALS
ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA WERE THEREFORE NOT LARGELY CONSIDERED.

THE MJO IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE, WITH THE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE PHASE OVER THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND AFRICA. DURING THE NEXT 2 WEEKS, THE ENHANCED PHASE IS
ANTICIPATED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN (AND PERHAPS EASTERN) INDIAN
OCEAN. THE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE (IOD) HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN ITS NEGATIVE PHASE,
WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION CONCENTRATED NEAR AND OVER THE MARITIME CONTINENT, AND
GENERALLY SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE INDIAN OCEAN AND WESTERN
PACIFIC. MJO COMPOSITES (BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT THE ENHANCED PHASE OF
THE MJO WILL REMAIN OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN) PROVIDE LITTLE GUIDANCE FOR THE U.S.
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR FEBRUARY.

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2017 IS VERY UNCERTAIN, PRIMARILY DUE TO
CONFLICTING DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL PREDICTIONS. THERE ARE ELEVATED CHANCES
OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEAR-COASTAL CALIFORNIA, AND ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHERN BORDER STATES TO, AND INCLUDING, THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED IN FEBRUARY FOR
APPROXIMATELY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALVES OF ALASKA, PART OF WHICH IS DUE
TO ABOVE-AVERAGE COASTAL SSTS. THE AREAS OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED VERSIONS OF THE
NMME, THE NCAR CLIMATE MODELS, THE CANADIAN MODELS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE
IMME (INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE), NASA, AND GFDL MODELS. EARLIER RUNS
OF THE CFS MODEL (ABOUT 10 DAYS AGO) PREDICTED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES, AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA.
SINCE THAT TIME, THE CFS HAS UNDERGONE SEVERAL TRANSITIONS. THE FIRST INVOLVED
A RELATIVELY COLD PATTERN EAST OF THE ROCKIES, AND A RELATIVELY WARM PATTERN
WEST OF THE ROCKIES. MOST RECENTLY, THE CFS FORECAST PATTERN HAS FLIPPED,
FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST, AND A RETURN
TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST. THE FLUCTUATIONS OF THE CFS
DURING THE PAST 10 DAYS SEEM TO SUGGEST A CIRCULATION PATTERN THAT HAS NOT YET
LOCKED IN TO A STABLE SOLUTION. THESE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CFS OUTPUT ARE ALSO
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PREDOMINANCE OF EQUAL CHANCES (EC) ANTICIPATED IN
THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS
BASED ON SOME OF THE CFS MODEL RUNS, THE NCAR CLIMATE MODELS, AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT, THE IMME. THIS AREA OF FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF DEEP SNOW COVER.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2017 IS ALSO FAIRLY UNCERTAIN, MOSTLY
DUE TO CONFLICTING DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. ODDS FOR
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND FROM
ABOUT ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION, AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE TWO AREAS OF FAVORED ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE SUPPORTED BY RECENT RUNS (ABOUT PAST 8-10 DAYS) OF THE
PROBABILISTIC CFS, AND TO SOME EXTENT, THE NMME, AND THE NASA MODEL.
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS CALIFORNIA, MOST OF NEVADA,
ARIZONA, NEW MEXICO, MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS. THIS IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CFS, WITH LESSER CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
THE SMLR, CCA, AND THE OCN. THE CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED NMME SOLUTIONS
SUPPORT RELATIVE DRYNESS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, AS DO THE CANADIAN
CANCM4 MODEL, NCAR, AND NASA GEOS5 RUNS.


FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA


THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.



AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR FEB WILL BE ISSUED ON TUE JANUARY 31 2017


THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD.

$$

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: January 17, 2006
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Career Opportunities