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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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    0.5mn JAS 2018
    1.5mn ASO 2018
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    6.5mn JFM 2019
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    0.5mn Jul 2018


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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2018


30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2018

THE JULY 2018 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE, STATISTICAL TOOLS, CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, AND
POTENTIAL INFLUENCES FROM MODES OF TROPICAL VARIABILITY. ENSO IS NOT A FACTOR
IN THESE OUTLOOKS SINCE IT IS IN A NEUTRAL STATE AND IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN
NEUTRAL.

THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) IS NOT LIKELY TO PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE,
AS TELECONNECTIONS TO MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION FEATURES FROM MJO RELATED
CONVECTION IS TYPICALLY WEAK DURING JULY. THE PREDICTED EVOLUTION OF THE MJO IS
NOT ONE CONDUCIVE TO THE MJO SUPPORTING TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OR THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE PREDICTED STATE OF ENSO AND MJO,
HIGHER FREQUENCY MODES THAT ARE NOT PREDICTABLE ON MONTHLY TIME SCALES ARE
LIKELY TO INFLUENCE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATIONS, AND THE RESULTANT POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE MOISTURE INFLUXES INTO THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

MODEL OUTLOOKS FROM THE NMME SUITE, MORE RECENT RUNS FROM THE CFS, AND TRENDS
FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, WHERE THE HIGHEST
ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE DEPICTED IN THE OFFICIAL OUTLOOK. OVER
PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND GREAT PLAINS, MANY MODELS INDICATE AN AREA
WHERE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED, WHICH IS IN OPPOSITION TO
TRENDS, SO EQUAL CHANCES (EC) IS DEPICTED. CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND
DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUT ALSO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS WELL AS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. FURTHER EAST,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, TRENDS ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE SIGNAL FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SOME MODELS HAVE LITTLE TO NO SIGNAL
FOR TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS, SO EC IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL OUTLOOK. ACROSS
ALASKA, TRENDS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGH MODEL OUTPUTS SHOW A
WEAKNESS ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA. THE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA, WHERE MODEL OUTPUT, TRENDS, AND RECENT SST
OBSERVATIONS ALIGN.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS LESS CERTAIN THAN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS FROM THE NMME SUITE AND
THE RECENT CFS RUNS DEPICT A STRONG DRY SIGNAL OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG
WET SIGNAL OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC.  MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE A
SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SOME NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE
EAST PACIFIC, AND AN ACTIVE START TO THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON. THE DRY SIGNAL FROM
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, IMPLYING LESS NORTHWARD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES. THIS SIGNAL CONFLICTS WITH TRENDS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SO PROBABILITIES ARE MUTED COMPARED
TO MODEL OUTPUTS.  MODEL HINDCASTS REVEAL LITTLE SKILL IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRENDS ARE WEAK IN THOSE AREAS, SO NO SIGNAL FOR EITHER
WETTER OR DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IS DEPICTED IN THE OUTLOOK. TRENDS IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR THE CORE SUMMER MONTHS FAVOR WETTER CONDITIONS, WHILE RECENT
CFS OUTPUT SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEAST, WITH THAT
SIGNAL FADING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. BOTH TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE FAVOR BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA INCLUDING THE ALEUTIANS, SUPPORTED BY
MODEL GUIDANCE. ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA, UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER, SO EQUAL CHANCES
IS INDICATED.

FORECASTER: MATTHEW ROSENCRANS

THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.

AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR JUL WILL BE ISSUED ON SAT JUNE 30 2018

THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD.
$$

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