Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

Text Discussions
   90day Prognostic
   30day Prognostic
   Hawaiian
   Tools


More Outlooks
    0.5mn MAM 2018
    1.5mn AMJ 2018
    2.5mn MJJ 2018
    3.5mn JJA 2018
    4.5mn JAS 2018
    5.5mn ASO 2018
    6.5mn SON 2018
    7.5mn OND 2018
    8.5mn NDJ 2018
    9.5mn DJF 2018
   10.5mn JFM 2019
   11.5mn FMA 2019
   12.5mn MAM 2019
    0.5mn Mar 2018


Tools Used (see Discussion for explanation)
   CCA
   OCN
   CMP
   SMT
   POE
 
HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EST THU FEB 15 2018


30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MARCH 2018

LA NINA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID-FEBRUARY, WITH NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES
OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM NEAR THE DATE LINE
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE COUPLED ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO LA NINA
REMAINS READILY OBSERVED, WITH POSITIVE OLR ANOMALIES DUE TO REDUCED CONVECTION
NEAR THE DATE LINE AND NEGATIVE OLR ANOMALIES DUE TO ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER
PARTS OF THE MARITIME CONTINENT. THE MJO REMAINED ACTIVE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS; THE ENHANCED PHASE PROPAGATED ACROSS THE WEST PACIFIC OF LATE AND
EASTWARD PROPAGATION HAS SLOWED. THE CURRENT MJO STATE FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS IN EARLY MARCH. ADDITIONALLY, A SUDDEN
STRATOSPHERIC WARMING OCCURRED ON FEBRUARY 12. EMPIRICALLY, THIS FAVORS A
MODEST SHIFT IN THE LOW-FREQUENCY AO TOWARD THE NEGATIVE PHASE. THE RECENT RUNS
OF THE GEFS AND CFS FORECAST A TRANSITIONS TOWARD A STRONGLY NEGATIVE AO
REGIME, WITH HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCKING FORECAST NEAR THE DAVIS STRAIT. THE ECWMF
SHOWS A SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT WITHOUT THE ASSOCIATED TELECONNECTION PATTERN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED IN EARLY FEBRUARY
SEEMS TO EMPHASIZE LA NINA AND LONG-TERM TRENDS, A REASONABLE STARTING PLACE
FOR THE MARCH OUTLOOK.

THE MARCH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK STARTS WITH THE CALIBRATED DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, BUT MAKES RATHER SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST CFS
FORECASTS AND EMPIRICAL FORECAST MODELS THAT ARE CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG
NEGATIVE AO PROJECTION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE MONTH. ANY MJO IMPACTS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH ARE A BIT OF A WILD CARD GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
IN MJO EVOLUTION DURING LATE FEBRUARY AND EARLY MARCH.

THE MARCH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES INCREASES IN THE PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, AND WITH REASONABLY LARGE PROBABILITIES FOR A 0.5-MONTH LEAD OUTLOOK.
THIS SIGNAL IS CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA, EARLY MONTH MJO IMPACTS, AND A
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CONUS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. THE SIGNAL IS
STRONGEST OVER NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS UPON A BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER DAVIS STRAIT. LONG-TRENDS AND LA NINA FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST, BUT THIS IS TEMPERED BY THE LATEST DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY COLD START TO THE MONTH. EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE-, NEAR-, AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST OVER A
LARGE SWATH OF THE CONUS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. EASTWARD. OVER THIS REGION
THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS BETWEEN THE LOW-FREQUENCY TRENDS AND ENSO AND
HIGHER-FREQUENCY AO AND MJO CONTRIBUTIONS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER WESTERN ALASKA WHERE THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST TOOLS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.

THE MARCH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, LIKE THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK, ATTEMPTS TO
COMBINE THE INFLUENCE OF LA NINA WITH THE LATEST CFS GUIDANCE AND THE AO AND
MJO FOOTPRINTS EARLY IN THE MONTH. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND EXTENDED EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST; THIS REGION IS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE CANONICAL LA
NINA FOOTPRINT BASED ON THE MJO AND AO. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR MUCH OF THE GULF COAST. THIS
IS BROADLY CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA AND BASED ON THE PREPONDERANCE OF DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE. EQUAL CHANCES IS FORECAST FOR LARGE SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS WHERE THE VARIOUS AFOREMENTIONED CLIMATE SIGNALS CONFLICT, AS
DOES THE LATEST CFS WITH COUPLED MODEL INITIALIZED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
MONTH. ANOMALOUS RIDGING CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ALASKA FAVORS A NORTHWARD
SHIFTED STORM TRACK, AND THUS A NORTH-SOUTH DIPOLE IN PROBABILITIES FAVORING
ABOVE- AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

FORECASTER: STEPHEN BAXTER

THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.

AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR MAR WILL BE ISSUED ON WED FEBRUARY 28 2018

THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD.
$$

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: January 17, 2006
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Career Opportunities