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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MARCH 2017

AN INITIAL REVIEW OF SOME OF THE FACTORS TYPICALLY CONSIDERED IN FORMULATING
THE HALF MONTH LEAD MONTHLY OUTLOOK INCLUDE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TROPICS.
OCEANIC AND MOST ATMOSPHERIC INDICATORS ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA CONDITIONS HAVE
FADED AND CPC ISSUED ITS FINAL LA NINA ADVISORY EARLIER THIS MONTH. LA NINA WAS
NOT CONSIDERED IN THE MARCH 2017 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK. AT THE
SUBSEASONAL TIME SCALE, WE DO HOWEVER, OBSERVE A ROBUST MJO EVENT WITH THE
ENHANCED CONVECTIVE PHASE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND THE
SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE PHASE LOCATED ACROSS THE INDIAN OCEAN AND MARITIME
CONTINENT REGION AND THIS SIGNAL WAS CONSIDERED IN DEVELOPING THE MARCH
OUTLOOK. ANOMALOUS SNOW COVER AND ABOVE NORMAL COASTAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN SOME AREAS WERE ALSO CONSIDERED.

INFORMATION FROM DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PLAYED A LARGE ROLE AS WELL IN THE
INITIAL MARCH 2017 OUTLOOK AND INCLUDED WEEK 3-4 MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE CFS
AND ECMWF MODEL SYSTEMS AND MONTHLY GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE FROM THE CFS.
STATISTICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE LINKED TO PREDICTORS SUCH AS THE MJO, ENSO AND
TREND FOR THE WEEK 3-4 TIME PERIOD ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO THE OUTLOOK.

THE MARCH 2017 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK DEPICTS A CONSIDERABLE AREA OF EQUAL CHANCES
(EC) AT THIS HALF MONTH LEAD AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN A NUMBER
OF THE FORECAST TOOLS. LAGGED 200-HPA HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE COMPOSITES LINKED
TO THE CURRENT MJO PHASE WOULD TEND TO FAVOR IN TIME NEGATIVE HEIGHT DEPARTURES
AND AREAS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR CONSIDERABLE PORTIONS OF THE CONUS
DURING LATER FEBRUARY INTO EARLY MARCH INCLUDING THE EASTERN U.S. THIS IS
CURRENTLY AT ODDS WITH WEEK-2 GUIDANCE WHICH ON AVERAGE CONTINUES TO FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION CLOSE TO EARLY MARCH.

FOR THE INITIAL MARCH 2017 OUTLOOK, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR A
REGION WHERE MJO RELATED INFORMATION (ABOVE DESCRIBED COMPOSITES AND
STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS) AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM BOTH WEEK 3-4 AND
THE CFS MONTHLY FORECAST ARE CONSISTENT. THIS REGION IS FOR A SMALL AREA THAT
INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.
WHERE, IN GENERAL, THERE IS AGREEMENT FROM WEEK 3-4 MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE CFS
AND ECMWF AND THE CFS MONTHLY FORECAST AS WELL AS SUPPORT FROM LONG TERM
TRENDS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
ALASKA SUPPORTED BY ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS AND
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE MARCH 2017 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS STRONGLY BASED ON AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER DEGREE MJO CONSIDERATIONS. ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IN PART DUE TO MJO
STATISTICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH THE WEEK 3-4 PERIOD GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE CFS MONTHLY FORECAST.
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOST LIKELY DURING MARCH 2017 FOR AREAS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE BOTH LONG TERM TRENDS AND
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICT A POTENTIAL SIGNAL. PRIMARILY BASED ON THE CFS
MONTHLY FORECAST AND LONG TERM TRENDS, THERE ARE ELEVATED ODDS FOR BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS STRETCHING FROM ARIZONA TO WEST TEXAS, WHILE
WEST-CENTRAL ALASKA IS FAVORED TO SEE ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION.


FORECASTER: JON GOTTSCHALCK


THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.



AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR MAR WILL BE ISSUED ON TUE FEBRUARY 28 2017


THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD.

$$

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