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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR AUGUST 2016

THE UPDATES TO THE OUTLOOKS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR AUGUST 2016
ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON RECENT DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUTS AND THE LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST PRODUCTS FROM CPC (INCLUDING THE 6-10 DAY, 8-14 DAY, AND WEEK 3-4
OUTLOOKS) AND WPC (DAYS 1-7 MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND QPF OUT THROUGH 7
DAYS). MONTHLY FORECASTS OF MJO ACTIVITY AND TRENDS IN SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) ARE ALSO CONSIDERED.

RECENT OUTPUTS FROM CFS INDICATE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND NORTHEAST. MONTHLY FORECASTS OF MJO FROM THE
EUROPEAN CENTER FAVOR PHASES 5 AND 6, WHICH WOULD FAVOR COOLER SOLUTIONS DURING
LATE SUMMER OVER THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THOSE FACTORS, THE AREA WHERE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED WAS REMOVED FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE MOST
CONSISTENT SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MODELS AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS ARE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GREAT BASIN, SO ONLY MINOR EDITS ARE MADE IN
THOSE REGIONS. SHORTER TERM OUTLOOKS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHWEST, SO THE ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE MONTHLY TIMESCALE
WERE REDUCED, BUT NOT REMOVED, AS THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION, WHICH WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MINOR REVISIONS WERE MADE TO THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK. QPF OUTLOOKS THROUGH 7
DAYS INDICATE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST, SO THE AREA WHERE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED WAS
REMOVED. THE AREA WHERE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OVER TEXAS AND NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST, ACCOUNTING FOR SHORT-TERM OUTLOOKS AND RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS STILL FAVORED FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST, AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST, WHILE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
IS STILL FAVORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

----------- PREVIOUS MESSAGE FROM JULY 21 IS BELOW ------------

THE AUGUST 2016 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE AND STATISTICAL TOOLS, WITH SOME CONSIDERATION OF CURRENT SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS. ENSO IS NOW IN ITS NEUTRAL PHASE ACROSS THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC. LA NINA IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AUGUST-OCTOBER SEASON, WITH
ABOUT A 55-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LA NINA DURING THE UPCOMING AUTUMN AND WINTER.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ENSO DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/ENSO_ADVISORY/ FOR A
MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF ENSO CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. DURING
THE PAST WEEK, THE WHEELER-HENDON RMM INDEX INDICATED SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE
MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) SIGNAL OVER AFRICA. DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS,
THE GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATES EASTWARD PROPAGATION AND GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE
MJO SIGNAL OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN. NEITHER THE CURRENT NEUTRAL PHASE OF ENSO NOR
THE MJO SIGNAL ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE MUCH GUIDANCE IN THE FORMULATION OF THE
MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR AUGUST 2016. THEREFORE, THE
OUTLOOKS RELY PRIMARILY UPON THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NCEP
CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS), THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME),
THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (IMME), AND MODEL GUIDANCE FOR WEEKS 3
AND 4 FROM THE CFS, JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY (JMA), AND ECMWF, AS WELL AS
CLIMATE RELATIONSHIPS TO CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.

DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. AND ALASKA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOST OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHERE A NUMBER OF MODELS
PREDICT EITHER THE LOWER OR MIDDLE TERCILE FOR TEMPERATURE. CURRENT SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS GENERALLY RANK ABOVE THE 80TH PERCENTILE,
AND CPC'S EXPERIMENTAL WEEK 3 AND 4 FORECASTS FAVOR EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW
AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION, AND REDUCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BASED
ON SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL WEEK 3 AND 4 FORECASTS, EC IS CONSIDERED THE MOST LIKELY OPTION.
HOWEVER, AS NOTED EARLIER, MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. AND ALASKA ARE FORECAST
TO EXPERIENCE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING AUGUST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PREDICTIONS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS, WHICH INCORPORATE THE
DECADAL CLIMATE WARMING TRENDS, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) PATTERNS. IN ALASKA, PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE GREATEST IN THE FAR SOUTH, DUE IN PART TO SSTS IN EXCESS OF
1.5-2.0 DEGREES C.

CALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE NMME DYNAMICAL MODELS, AND
THE CFS, GFDL, NASA, AND CMC (CANADIAN) MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND
THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE SAME TOOLS, IN ADDITION TO CPC'S
WEEK 3 AND 4 FORECASTS, LEND SUPPORT FOR ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL
MODEL FORECASTS INDICATES AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE REGION. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST, THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION, AND MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS SUPPORTED PRIMARILY BY THE IMME AND THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE CFS. ADDITIONAL MODEL SUPPORT COMES FROM THE CMC, GFDL, AND
CPC'S WEEK 3 AND 4 FORECASTS.


FORECASTER: MATTHEW ROSENCRANS


THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.



THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK...FOR SEP ... WILL BE ISSUED ON THU AUG 18 2016


THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD.

$$

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