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About the Forecast Forum

ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Forecast Forum


Forecast Forum

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niņo Advisory      


            El Niņo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere Spring 2010.


A significant El Niņo persisted throughout the equatorial Pacific Ocean during January 2010 (Fig. T18).  Although sea surface temperature (SST) departures in the Niņo-3.4 region decreased to +1.6°C in January, SSTs continued to be sufficiently warm to support deep tropical convection (Table T2). Over the last several months, a series of oceanic Kelvin waves contributed to the build-up of heat content anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific.  The latest Kelvin wave was associated with temperature departures exceeding +2°C down to 150m depth across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. T17).  Equatorial convection over the central Pacific remained enhanced during the month, while convection over Indonesia exhibited considerable week-to-week variability (Fig. T25).  While the low-level winds have been variable, low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies generally prevailed during January (Figs. T20, T21).  Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a strong and mature El Niņo episode.

Nearly all models predict decreasing SST anomalies in the Niņo-3.4 region through 2010, and model spread increases at longer lead times (Figs. F1-F13).  Nearly half of the models indicate the 3-month Niņo-3.4 SST anomaly will drop below +0.5°C around April-May-June 2010, indicating a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during Northern Hemisphere spring. However, predicting the timing of this transition is highly uncertain.

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).

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Page Last Modified: February 2010
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