The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
A transition to
ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer
2016, with a possible transition to La Niña conditions during the fall.
of a strong El Niño, sea surface temperature (SSTs) anomalies were in excess of
2°C across the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean during January (Fig.
T18). The Niño indices declined over the past month, with
the biggest decreases in the eastern Pacific (Niño-1+2 and Niño-3; Table
subsurface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific increased due to a downwelling Kelvin wave, but toward the end of the month
weakened again in association with the eastward shift of below-average
temperatures at depth in the central Pacific (Fig. T17). Also,
low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies
continued over much of the tropical Pacific (Figs.T20, T21). The equatorial Southern Oscillation Index
(SOI) value was negative but weakened relative to last month (Fig. T2). Convection remained much
enhanced over the central and east-central tropical Pacific and suppressed over
Indonesia (Fig. T25). Collectively, these
anomalies reflect the continuation of a strong El Niño.
Most models indicate that
El Niño will weaken, with a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late spring
or early summer 2016 (Figs. F1-F13). Thereafter, the chance of La Niña conditions
increases into the fall. While there is
both model and physical support for La Niña following strong El Niño,
considerable uncertainty remains. A
transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or
early summer 2016, with a possible transition to La Niña conditions during the
Weekly updates of oceanic
and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).