Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.  Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.   Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8.  Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F9.  Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

 

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory/ La Niña Watch

 

Outlook: A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance).

 

Discussion:

 

During January 2024, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18). SST anomalies weakened slightly in the eastern and east-central Pacific, as indicated by the monthly Nino index values (Table T2). However, changes were more pronounced below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies returning to near zero. Although above-average temperatures persisted in the upper 100 meters of the equatorial Pacific, below-average temperatures were widespread at greater depths (Fig. T17). Atmospheric anomalies across the tropical Pacific also weakened during January.  Low-level winds were near average over the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific (Figs. T20 & T21).  Convection remained slightly enhanced near the Date Line and was close to average around Indonesia (Fig. T25). Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weakening El Nino.

The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024 (Figs. F1-F12).  Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events.  The forecast team is in agreement with the latest model guidance, with some uncertainty around the timing of transitions to ENSO-neutral and, following that, La Niña.  Even as the current El Niño weakens, impacts on the United States could persist through April 2024 (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation).  In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance).

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).