Extratropical Highlights
FEBRUARY 2009
Forecast Forum
1. Northern Hemisphere
The 500-hPa height
field during February 2009 featured a zonal wave-1 pattern at high latitudes
with positive anomalies covering eastern
Canada
and
Greenland
and negative anomalies covering eastern
Siberia
and the
Bering Sea
(Fig. E9).
In the middle latitudes the circulation featured positive anomalies across the
central
North Pacific Ocean
, and across southern
Asia
, and negative anomalies from
California
to southern
Europe
. This overall pattern was associated with La Niņa, a strong positive phase
(+2.2) of the West Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern (Table
E1, Fig. E7), and a
split-flow configuration across the
North Atlantic Ocean
.
The main
temperature signals during February included above-average temperatures in the
south-central
U.S.
, eastern
Canada
, and across southern
Eurasia
, and below-average temperatures in western
Canada
and across
Siberia
(Fig.
E1). The main precipitation signals
included above-average totals in southern and eastern Europe, and below-average
totals along the U.S. Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard, and across southern
China
(Fig. E3).
a. North Pacific/
North America
At 200-hPa, La Niņa
again contributed to a pronounced inter-hemispheric symmetry of the circulation
anomalies across the
Pacific Ocean
. In the subtropics, aspects of this circulation included enhanced mid-Pacific
troughs in both hemispheres flanking the suppressed equatorial convection, and a
westward retraction of the subtropical ridges to
Australasia
(Fig. T22). Associated with this
pattern, the East Asian jet stream was retracted westward toward the western
Pacific (Fig. T21).
These conditions contributed to a westward shift to the central North Pacific of
the mean ridge normally located over western
North America
, and to a weaker-than-average strength of the
Hudson Bay
trough (Fig. E9).
These conditions
were associated with above average temperatures in the south-central
U.S.
and eastern
Canada
, and below average temperatures in western
Canada
. They were also associated with ongoing precipitation deficits in the
Gulf
Coast
and mid-Atlantic regions. The
Gulf
Coast
region typically receives below average wintertime precipitation during La Niņa,
as seen during the last four months (Fig.
E5). Some of the most significant deficits have
occurred in
Texas
, where exceptional drought has developed.
c.
Asia
The circulation
during February also featured negative 500-hPa height anomalies across central
and eastern
Siberia
and positive anomalies across central and eastern
Asia
. This pattern partly reflected a strong positive phase of the WP teleconnection
pattern (Table E1,
Fig. E7). It was associated with a north-south
dipole of temperature anomalies, with
Siberia
and northern
Asia
recording well below average temperatures, while central and southern
Asia
recorded significantly above average temperatures with departures generally in
the upper 90th percentile of occurrences. Across southern and central
China
, the persistent positive height anomalies also led to a third consecutive month
of below average precipitation (Figs. E3,
E4).
2. Southern Hemisphere
The circulation during
February again showed a strong connection to La Niņa, with enhanced ridges over
western Australia
and the central South Pacific, and enhanced troughs over the subtropical South
Pacific and over the high latitudes of the central and eastern South Pacific (Figs.
T22, E15).
In southern
Africa
, the rainy season extends from October through April. During February rainfall
was near-average for the region as a whole, with above average totals in the
west and below average totals in the east (Fig.
E4). Overall, the 2008-09 rainy season has been
above average, consistent with La Niņa.
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